{"id":75997,"date":"2022-12-09T15:10:03","date_gmt":"2022-12-09T12:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=75997"},"modified":"2022-12-09T21:51:39","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T18:51:39","slug":"fed-ve-avrupa-merkez-bankasi-bizi-sasirtacak-bir-hamle-yapabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-ve-avrupa-merkez-bankasi-bizi-sasirtacak-bir-hamle-yapabilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, bizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtacak bir hamle yapabilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

IBEX 35, CAC 40, DAX endeksleri ile piyasalar bu Cuma kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta duyurulacak Fed ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz kararlar\u0131nda olacak.<\/p>\n

ECB: 50 mi 75 mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Uzmanlar tahminlerini yapt\u0131 bile. “Fiyat g\u00f6stergelerinin gev\u015femesi ve ekonominin beklenenden daha iyi durumda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta yap\u0131lacak merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Hem Fed hem de ECB’nin daha \u00f6nce +75 baz puan olan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 +50 baz puan (bps) art\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu toplant\u0131lar \u00f6ncesinde seans s\u0131ras\u0131nda merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan herhangi bir m\u00fcdahale olmayacak (sessizlik d\u00f6nemi), bu nedenle d\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan tahviller sat\u0131n al\u0131nabilir (fiyatta art\u0131\u015f, i\u00e7 verim oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f).” diye a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor Bankinter’daki analistler.<\/p>\n

Danske Bank ayr\u0131ca ECB’nin, faizleri 50 bp art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 ve gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde de art\u0131rmaya devam etmesini bekliyor. Bu uzmanlara g\u00f6re mevduat faizi, %2,75 ile zirve yapabilir.<\/p>\n

FXStreet haberine g\u00f6re Danske Bank, “Gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da ECB’nin \u015fahin bir tav\u0131rla 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u00d6zellikle ECB’nin, (yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n neredeyse tamamen duraca\u011f\u0131) APP s\u00fcreci kapsam\u0131nda yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131mlara son verilmesine ili\u015fkin temel ilkeleri ve daha fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k u\u00e7lu bir ifade sunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu hem \u015fahinler hem de g\u00fcvercinler i\u00e7in kabul edilebilir olaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir uzla\u015fma olacak.” dedi.<\/p>\n

FXStreet, Danske Bank ile ayn\u0131 fikirde olan ve ECB’nin Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faizleri 50 bp art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na inanan Rabobank’\u0131n tahminlerini de yineliyor ancak 75 bp’lik bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmiyor.<\/p>\n

“Man\u015fet enflasyondaki ilk gev\u015femeye ra\u011fmen \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek ve enflasyonun hedefe yak\u0131nsamas\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatacak. Yeni projeksiyonlar bir 2025 tahmini i\u00e7erecek ancak son tahminlerdeki hatalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon riskleri devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece ECB ihtiyatl\u0131 davranmal\u0131.” diyen Rabobank analistleri, “%3’l\u00fck nihai faiz tahminimizi koruyoruz.\u201d diye ekledi.<\/p>\n

ECB’nin daha \u015fahin bir strateji izleyece\u011fine i\u015faret eden bir di\u011fer uzman da \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f hedefleyen Nordea.<\/p>\n

Nordea’daki analistler, “ECB’nin, Y\u00f6netim Konseyindeki daha g\u00fcvercin seslere bir selam olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck tahvil varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya ba\u015flama tarihiyle ilgili karar\u0131n\u0131 erteleyece\u011fini veya tarihi, 2023\u2019te ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonu veya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131 olarak belirleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.” diyor.<\/p>\n

Fed: G\u00fcvercin vaadini yerine getirecek mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fed’e gelince bu analistler, 2023’te politik duru\u015funa ili\u015fkin \u015fahin bir mesaj bekliyor. Bu uzmanlara g\u00f6re son d\u00f6nemde finansal ko\u015fullardaki gev\u015feme h\u00e2l\u00e2 ilk a\u015famalarda ve faizlerde daha fazla art\u0131r\u0131ma ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacak.<\/p>\n

Danske Bank analistleri: “ABD ekonomisi d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ufak bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor ve Fed’in, enflasyonun bu noktadan sonra devam etmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in gelecek y\u0131l hafif bir resesyonu zorlamas\u0131 gerekiyor. Talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in geni\u015f finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 gerekiyor, bu da muhtemelen ilk \u00e7eyrekte daha fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek olan daha uzun reel getiriler ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar kombinasyonunu i\u00e7eriyor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Benzer \u015fekilde BofA analistleri de ayn\u0131 fikirde: “Fed’in Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda federal fon oran\u0131 i\u00e7in hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 50bp art\u0131rarak %4,25-4,5’e y\u00fckseltmesini bekliyoruz. Fed’in son birka\u00e7 haftad\u0131r yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bu hamleyi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyor. As\u0131l \u00f6nemli soru, Fed’in bundan sonra ne yapaca\u011f\u0131.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, bizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtacak bir hamle yapabilir mi?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":75998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[413],"class_list":["post-75997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-fed"],"yoast_head":"\nFed ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, bizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtacak bir hamle yapabilir mi? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-ve-avrupa-merkez-bankasi-bizi-sasirtacak-bir-hamle-yapabilir-mi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed ve Avrupa Merkez 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