{"id":75380,"date":"2022-12-07T15:00:03","date_gmt":"2022-12-07T12:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=75380"},"modified":"2022-12-07T15:00:03","modified_gmt":"2022-12-07T12:00:03","slug":"roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\/","title":{"rendered":"Roubini\u2019nin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u201cKa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yazar \u2013 Alessandro Albano<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Investing.com \u2013 Tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f bir ekonomist olan ve halen New York \u00dcniversitesi Stern School of Business’ta ekonomi profes\u00f6r\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rev yapan Nouriel Roubini, k\u00fcresel ekonomi ve finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n durumuna ili\u015fkin karamsar tahminleriyle bilinir. Ancak Project Syndicate’teki bu yaz\u0131s\u0131 daha da ileri giderek “Ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f”, yani k\u00fcreselle\u015fmi\u015f d\u00fcnyan\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bile kar\u015f\u0131 koyamayaca\u011f\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

“Y\u0131llar s\u00fcren a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 geni\u015flemeci maliye, para ve kredi politikalar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck negatif arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan stagflasyonist bask\u0131lar, \u015fimdi devasa bir kamu ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7 da\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.” diye yazan ekonomist, “T\u00fcm ekonomik krizlerin anas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131yor ve politikac\u0131lar\u0131n bu konuda yapabilece\u011fi pek bir \u015fey olmayacak.” uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Roubini bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc savunmak i\u00e7in “\u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131” olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi bor\u00e7 verilerine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Roubini \u015f\u00f6yle diyor:<\/p>\n

“K\u00fcresel olarak toplam \u00f6zel ve kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc borcunun GSY\u0130H’ye oran\u0131, 1999’da %200 iken 2021’de %350’ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu oran \u015fu anda geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde %420, \u00c7in’de ise %330’dur. Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri’nde ise bu %420 ile B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran d\u00f6neminde ve \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha y\u00fcksek.”<\/p>\n

Makaleye g\u00f6re bu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma uzun zamand\u0131r devam ediyor ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler, 2008 krizi ve COVID-19\u2019la ge\u00e7en iki y\u0131l boyunca “hanehalklar\u0131, \u015firketler, bankalar, g\u00f6lge bankalar, h\u00fck\u00fcmetler ve hatta t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler” gibi “iflas etmi\u015f zombileri” ayakta tuttu.<\/p>\n

Ancak \u015fimdi ayn\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 geni\u015flemeci maliye, para ve kredi politikalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan alevlenen enflasyon, Roubini’nin a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bu finansal “\u00d6l\u00fclerin \u015eafa\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131\u201d bitirdi. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek zorunda kalmas\u0131yla, “zombiler bor\u00e7 servisi maliyetlerinde sert art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.”<\/p>\n

Enflasyon ayn\u0131 zamanda hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n reel gelirini a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve gayrimenkul ve finansal varl\u0131klar gibi varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in bu radikal de\u011fi\u015fim “\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir darbe” anlam\u0131na geliyor. “Ayn\u0131 \u015fey k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 \u015firketler, finans kurumlar\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetler i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli: Ayn\u0131 anda ciddi \u015fekilde artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri, d\u00fc\u015fen gelir ve kazan\u00e7lar ve azalan varl\u0131k de\u011ferleri ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.”<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131da bahsedilen krizlerin aksine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 geni\u015flemeci politikalar, enflasyon ate\u015fini daha da alevlendirece\u011fi i\u00e7in art\u0131k uygulanamaz ve ekonomist, bunun derin ve uzun s\u00fcreli bir resesyonun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ciddi bir mali kriz anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

Makalede “Varl\u0131k balonlar\u0131 patlad\u0131k\u00e7a bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme oranlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e ve hanehalklar\u0131, \u015firketler ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetler aras\u0131nda enflasyona g\u00f6re ayarlanm\u0131\u015f gelirler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e ekonomik kriz ve finansal \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f birbirini besleyecektir.” deniyor.<\/p>\n

“Kendi para birimleriyle bor\u00e7lanan geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler, uzun vadeli sabit faizli nominal bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n reel de\u011ferini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in beklenmedik bir enflasyon dalgas\u0131n\u0131 kullanabilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmetler a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in vergileri art\u0131rmaya ya da harcamalar\u0131 k\u0131smaya isteksiz olduklar\u0131ndan merkez bankas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n parasalla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, bir kez daha en az diren\u00e7 g\u00f6steren yol olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. Ancak herkesi her zaman kand\u0131ramazs\u0131n\u0131z.”<\/p>\n

Roubini, Project Syndicate’teki yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle sonland\u0131r\u0131yor: “T\u00fcm stagflasyonist bor\u00e7 krizlerinin anas\u0131 ertelenebilir ama \u00f6nlenemez.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Roubini\u2019nin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u201cKa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":75381,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2089,5121],"class_list":["post-75380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsalar","tag-borc","tag-roubini"],"yoast_head":"\nRoubini\u2019nin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u201cKa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Roubini\u2019nin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u201cKa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Roubini\u2019nin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u201cKa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Coin M\u00fchendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/coinmuhendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-12-07T12:00:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu-djiVrICv.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"533\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\",\"@id\":\"\"},\"headline\":\"Roubini\u2019nin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u201cKa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-12-07T12:00:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":625,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/12\\\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu-djiVrICv.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Bor\u00e7\",\"Roubini\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Borsalar\"],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2022\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/roubininin-dunya-ekonomisi-icin-kacinilmaz-cokus-ongorusu\\\/\",\"name\":\"Roubini\u2019nin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u201cKa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc - 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