{"id":75373,"date":"2022-12-07T14:10:03","date_gmt":"2022-12-07T11:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=75373"},"modified":"2022-12-07T14:10:03","modified_gmt":"2022-12-07T11:10:03","slug":"goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs ve JPMorgan\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD 2023\u2019te resesyona girecek"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yazar \u2013 Alessandro Albano<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Investing.com \u2013 ABD’de enflasyon<\/span> Ekim ay\u0131nda yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri g\u00f6sterdi ancak buna ra\u011fmen d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomisinin, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda resesyona girerek di\u011fer ekonomiler \u00fczerinde domino etkisi yaratma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n

Bu uyar\u0131, neredeyse koro halinde ABD’nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 risklerden bahseden ve birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan IMF tahminlerinden daha k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bir tonda konu\u015fan yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131n\u0131n CEO’lar\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM<\/span>) CEO’su Jamie Dimon, CNBC kanal\u0131na verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te pandemi sayesinde h\u00e2l\u00e2 1,5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ek tasarrufu bulunan i\u015fletmeler ve t\u00fcketiciler \u00fczerindeki enflasyonun etkilerinden endi\u015fe duydu\u011funu, programlar\u0131n 2021’e g\u00f6re %10 daha fazla harcama yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Dimon, “Enflasyon az \u00f6nce s\u00f6yledi\u011fim her \u015feyi a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor ve bir bu\u00e7uk trilyon dolar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda t\u00fckenmi\u015f olacak.” dedi. “Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ileriyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek bu geli\u015fmeler ekonomiyi ray\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131karabilir ve insanlar\u0131n endi\u015felendi\u011fi bir resesyona neden olabilir.”<\/p>\n

ABD’nin bir numaral\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yakla\u015fan “ekonomik kas\u0131rga” konusunda ilk kez uyarm\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Haziran ay\u0131nda Dimon, kas\u0131rgan\u0131n \u015fu anda gelmekte oldu\u011funu ve bunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir f\u0131rt\u0131na m\u0131 yoksa Sandy Kas\u0131rgas\u0131 m\u0131 oldu\u011funu bilmedi\u011fimizi ifade etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

JPM CEO’suna g\u00f6re Fed Fonlar\u0131n\u0131n %5’e do\u011fru ilerlemesiyle birlikte faizlerin<\/span> y\u00fckseltilmesi “enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in yeterli olmayabilir.”<\/p>\n

Wall Street Journal taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen bir etkinlikte ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in “yakla\u015f\u0131k 3’te 2” resesyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda bile hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin devam edece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunan Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS<\/span>) CEO’su David Solomon gibi k\u00fcresel finans\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck isimleri taraf\u0131ndan da payla\u015f\u0131lan endi\u015feler bunlar.<\/p>\n

GS’ye g\u00f6re hisse senedi, ham petrol<\/span> ve gayrimenkul (hem ticari hem de konut) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermeye devam edecek ve bu durum ABD dolar\u0131ndaki<\/span> g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ile dengelenecektir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca Solomon’a g\u00f6re ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in “yumu\u015fak ini\u015f” \u2013 ya da enflasyonda<\/span> ekonomiyi resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fcklemeyecek bir yava\u015flama \u2013 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 “yaln\u0131zca %35” ve Fed; b\u00fcy\u00fck mali te\u015fviklerin ve Ukrayna’daki Rus sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez etkilerinin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyonu azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in “faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde olmam\u0131z \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil” diye ekledi.<\/p>\n

Solomon, “Piyasa, yak\u0131n zamanda nihai orana ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ve [Fed’in] faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fini varsay\u0131yor ve tarihsel olarak \u00e7o\u011fu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne bakarsan\u0131z bir s\u00fcre sonra bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz.” dedi. “Ancak bunun i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011funu, belirsiz oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.”<\/p>\n

Projeksiyonlara gelince New York Fed taraf\u0131ndan hesaplanan resesyon modeli Kas\u0131m 2023’te ABD’de %38’lik bir resesyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ederken (%30’un \u00fczerindeki okumalar tarihsel olarak ekonomik gerilemenin habercisidir), Fed’in son noktasal grafiklerinde 2023 i\u00e7in nihai oran %4,6 olarak verilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Bu tavan t\u00fcm FOMC \u00fcyeleri taraf\u0131ndan payla\u015f\u0131lmamaktad\u0131r zira Cleveland Fed’in bu y\u0131l olduk\u00e7a isabetli oldu\u011fu kan\u0131tlanan anl\u0131k tahmin (nowcast) modeline g\u00f6re \u00e7ekirdek oran\u0131n yaln\u0131zca ufak bir gerilemeyle %6,26’ya d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Bunun, Fed’in 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in noktasal grafi\u011fini, %5’in hemen \u00fczerinde belirlemesi i\u00e7in yeterli olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en az\u0131ndan tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs ve JPMorgan\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD 2023\u2019te resesyona girecek<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":75374,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[545,413,2451],"class_list":["post-75373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsalar","tag-abd","tag-fed","tag-resesyon"],"yoast_head":"\nGoldman Sachs ve JPMorgan\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD 2023\u2019te resesyona girecek - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman Sachs ve JPMorgan\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD 2023\u2019te resesyona girecek\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Goldman Sachs ve JPMorgan\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD 2023\u2019te resesyona girecek\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Coin M\u00fchendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/coinmuhendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-12-07T11:10:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek-g5Cs2WtM.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"533\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\",\"@id\":\"\"},\"headline\":\"Goldman Sachs ve JPMorgan\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD 2023\u2019te resesyona girecek\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-12-07T11:10:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":627,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/12\\\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek-g5Cs2WtM.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Abd\",\"Fed\",\"Resesyon\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Borsalar\"],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2022\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-sachs-ve-jpmorgana-gore-abd-2023te-resesyona-girecek\\\/\",\"name\":\"Goldman Sachs ve JPMorgan\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD 2023\u2019te resesyona girecek - 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