{"id":70509,"date":"2022-11-14T14:40:03","date_gmt":"2022-11-14T11:40:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=70509"},"modified":"2022-11-14T14:40:03","modified_gmt":"2022-11-14T11:40:03","slug":"goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman, gelecek y\u0131l enflasyonda %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na \u201c\u00f6nemli\u201d bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yazar \u2013 Senad Karaahmetovic<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Goldman Sachs’un ba\u015f ekonomisti Jan Hatzius, ABD’nin gelecek y\u0131l enflasyonda “\u00f6nemli” bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe tan\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen PCE’nin bu y\u0131l Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda %5,1’den, gelecek y\u0131l Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda %2,9’a d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. PCE, insanlar\u0131n mal ve hizmetler i\u00e7in \u00f6dedikleri fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun “nihayet” d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren bu tahmin \u00fc\u00e7 temel fakt\u00f6re dayan\u0131yor: 1) tedarik zincirindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n hafiflemesi, 2) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bar\u0131nma enflasyonunun zirve yapmas\u0131 ve 3) \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131.<\/p>\n

Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ilk fakt\u00f6rden kaynaklanacak. Goldman, arz k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 mal kategorilerinin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anda +0,6 puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f iken 2023’\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda -0,4 puana d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Hatzius bir m\u00fc\u015fteri notunda “\u00d6zellikle yar\u0131 iletkenlerin arz\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde iyile\u015fti ve otomotiv mikro\u00e7ip sevkiyatlar\u0131 2019 seviyelerinin %42 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum ikinci el otomobil T\u00dcFE’sinde \u015fimdiden %5’lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden oldu ve 2023’te %15’lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yeni otomobil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.” diyor.<\/p>\n

PCE’nin %3’\u00fcn alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenirken Hatzius temel hizmet enflasyonunun daha yava\u015f bir h\u0131zda d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr enflasyonun “\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek bir seviye olan %4,4’e” d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Hatzius, “Bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan ancak yine de bar\u0131nma enflasyonundaki y\u00fcksek h\u0131z\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra k\u0131smen de en az 15 y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck Medicare (ABD sa\u011fl\u0131k sigortas\u0131) \u00fccret g\u00fcncellemesini yans\u0131tan sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetlerindeki enflasyonun ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nemli bir enflasyon barometresi olan t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi<\/span> (T\u00dcFE) Ekim ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la k\u0131yasla %7,7, ayl\u0131k<\/span> bazda ise %0,4 art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yazar \u2013 Senad Karaahmetovic Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Goldman Sachs’un ba\u015f ekonomisti Jan Hatzius, ABD’nin gelecek y\u0131l enflasyonda “\u00f6nemli” bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":70510,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel"],"yoast_head":"\nGoldman, gelecek y\u0131l enflasyonda %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na \u201c\u00f6nemli\u201d bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyor - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman, gelecek y\u0131l enflasyonda %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na \u201c\u00f6nemli\u201d bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yazar \u2013 Senad Karaahmetovic Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Goldman Sachs'un ba\u015f ekonomisti Jan Hatzius, ABD'nin gelecek y\u0131l enflasyonda "\u00f6nemli" bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Coin M\u00fchendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/coinmuhendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-11-14T11:40:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor-KG1sb4Fr.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"533\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\",\"@id\":\"\"},\"headline\":\"Goldman, gelecek y\u0131l enflasyonda %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na \u201c\u00f6nemli\u201d bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyor\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-11-14T11:40:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":364,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor-KG1sb4Fr.jpg\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2022\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/goldman-gelecek-yil-enflasyonda-3un-altina-onemli-bir-dusus-bekliyor\\\/\",\"name\":\"Goldman, gelecek y\u0131l enflasyonda %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na \u201c\u00f6nemli\u201d bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyor - 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