{"id":69231,"date":"2022-11-08T13:20:03","date_gmt":"2022-11-08T10:20:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=69231"},"modified":"2022-11-08T13:20:03","modified_gmt":"2022-11-08T10:20:03","slug":"morgan-stanley-abd-ara-secimlerindeki-3-olasi-senaryoyu-ve-piyasalardaki-etkilerini-acikladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/morgan-stanley-abd-ara-secimlerindeki-3-olasi-senaryoyu-ve-piyasalardaki-etkilerini-acikladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley, ABD ara se\u00e7imlerindeki 3 olas\u0131 senaryoyu ve piyasalardaki etkilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Investing.com –\u00a0ABD iki y\u0131lda bir yap\u0131lan Kongre se\u00e7imleri bug\u00fcn ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Se\u00e7imde Temsilciler Meclisi\u2019nin tamam\u0131 yani 435 \u00fcye i\u00e7in, Senato\u2019nun ise 3\u2019te 1\u2019i yani 35 \u00fcyesi i\u00e7in oylama yap\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Morgan Stanley <\/span><\/span> (NYSE:MS<\/span>), ABD\u2019de yap\u0131lacak ara se\u00e7imlerin olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi. Piyasalar\u0131n belirsizli\u011fi sevmedi\u011fini, beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131layan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n piyasalarda \u00e7ok fazla hareketlilik yaratmayaca\u011f\u0131, ancak beklenmeyen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k yaratabilece\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7izildi\u011fi raporda 3 senaryodan bahsedildi.<\/p>\n

1. Demokratlar i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz sonu\u00e7 volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hem anketler hem de tahmin piyasalar\u0131ndaki son e\u011filimlerin Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin en az bir Kongre odas\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu kazanmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funun belirtildi\u011fi raporda Demokratlar\u0131n Kongre’deki \u00e7o\u011funluklar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 sonucun beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Bu olas\u0131l\u0131kta enflasyonun Demokratlar i\u00e7in bir se\u00e7im y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc oldu\u011fu fikrini de zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu sonucu, Kongre’nin Ba\u015fkan Biden’\u0131n baz\u0131 mali geni\u015fleme politikalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe koymaktan al\u0131koyan siyasi ve yasal k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 hafifletme izni olarak g\u00f6rebilirler.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, Demokratlar i\u00e7in beklenenden daha iyi bir se\u00e7im gecesi, piyasalar\u0131n daha fazla mali geni\u015flemeye daha y\u00fcksek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k atayabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Kongre ve Fed, enflasyon<\/span> \u00fczerinde etkili bir \u015fekilde z\u0131t y\u00f6nlerde ilerliyor. K\u0131sa vadede bu, daha y\u00fcksek bir federal fon oran\u0131 potansiyelini yans\u0131tan daha y\u00fcksek Hazine getirileri ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar<\/span> anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n

2. Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin galibiyeti yeni riskler yaratabilir<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n genellikle b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f h\u00fck\u00fcmeti iyi niyetli bir ihmalle ili\u015fkilendirdi\u011fini, ancak Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin Kongre’nin her iki kanad\u0131nda kontrol\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmeleri halinde durumun b\u00f6yle olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n

Raporda 2010’daki ara se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kapanmas\u0131na ve 2011\u2019deki B\u00fct\u00e7e Kontrol Yasas\u0131 sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flay\u0131p Fed\u2019in de faiz<\/span> art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 erteledi\u011fine at\u0131fta bulunuldu. Benzer durumun tekrar ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi ve bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tahvillerde bask\u0131 yarabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

3. Erken sonu\u00e7lara dikkat edilmeli<\/strong><\/p>\n

Posta yoluyla yap\u0131lan oylaman\u0131n zaman alabilece\u011fi belirtildi. 2020\u2019de bu yolla yap\u0131lan oylamada ilk etapta Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin \u00f6nde oldu\u011fu ancak sonradan durumun tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Banka, benzer bir durum i\u00e7in \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapt\u0131:<\/p>\n

Yazar: Deniz Engin<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investing.com –\u00a0ABD iki y\u0131lda bir yap\u0131lan Kongre se\u00e7imleri bug\u00fcn ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Se\u00e7imde Temsilciler Meclisi\u2019nin tamam\u0131 yani 435 \u00fcye i\u00e7in, Senato\u2019nun …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":69232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[2870,3241],"class_list":["post-69231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-secim","tag-sonuc"],"yoast_head":"\nMorgan Stanley, ABD ara se\u00e7imlerindeki 3 olas\u0131 senaryoyu ve piyasalardaki etkilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/morgan-stanley-abd-ara-secimlerindeki-3-olasi-senaryoyu-ve-piyasalardaki-etkilerini-acikladi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Morgan Stanley, ABD ara se\u00e7imlerindeki 3 olas\u0131 senaryoyu ve piyasalardaki etkilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Investing.com -\u00a0ABD iki y\u0131lda bir yap\u0131lan Kongre se\u00e7imleri bug\u00fcn ba\u015fl\u0131yor. 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