{"id":66487,"date":"2022-10-26T16:40:03","date_gmt":"2022-10-26T13:40:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=66487"},"modified":"2022-10-26T16:40:03","modified_gmt":"2022-10-26T13:40:03","slug":"tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\/","title":{"rendered":"Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda metrikler"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Hazineleri, Fed<\/span>‘in son zamanlardaki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye zarar verebilece\u011fine dair alg\u0131lanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00fczerine keskin bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Fiyat hareketi; dolar endeksinde<\/span> g\u00f6r\u00fclen geri \u00e7ekilmenin ortam\u0131nda zay\u0131f ev fiyat<\/span> verileri, Richmond Fed endeks<\/span> verileri ve ayr\u0131ca Avrupa tahvillerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u00e7lar taraf\u0131ndan da desteklendi. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 UST 2Y getirisi<\/span> %4,41’e gerilerken, \u00e7ok izlenen UST 10Y getiriler<\/span> %4,03’te ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu arada, 42 milyar dolarl\u0131k UST 2Y tahvil ihalesi 2,59x’lik (\u00f6nceki alt\u0131 ihale ortalamas\u0131: 2,57x) iyi teklif metrikleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %4,46 (\u00f6nceki: %3,133) faiz oran\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u015eu anda ABD Hazinesi’nin likidite \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerindeki bozulma nedeniyle bir Hazine geri al\u0131m program\u0131na ba\u015flamas\u0131yla ilgili planlar tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu arada, 3 Kas\u0131m’da yap\u0131lacak FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda<\/span> \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc kez 75 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ~%80’e geriledi. Yar\u0131nki ilk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/span> verileriyle birlikte 3\u00c722 GSY\u0130H a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na dikkat kayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Fed’in \u015fahin s\u00f6ylemleri ve likidite sorunlar\u0131 nedeniyle tahvil piyasas\u0131nda daha kayda de\u011fer hareketler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. UST getirisi bunun \u00f6ncesinde %4,20\u2019lere kadar ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, ancak son g\u00fcnlerdeki metrikler biraz daha getirilerin gerilemesinde etkili olmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6te yandan, temett\u00fc\/hisse ve tahvil rotasyonu da \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge haline gelmi\u015f durumda. Bu noktada risksiz getirilerin enflasyonun bir hayli alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ana k\u0131stas olarak ele al\u0131n\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ROE ve ROA ile enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131nda da hissedar geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 ile \u015firketlerin enflasyondan etkilenen bilan\u00e7o g\u00f6stergeleri faiz ile piyasa hareketleri aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin tam i\u015flememesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yerlerde, JGB piyasas\u0131 %0,25 e\u015fi\u011fini zorlamaya devam ederken BOJ da piyasada aktif durumda. Zamans\u0131z ve plans\u0131z tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131 ile bu e\u015fik korunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu tarz m\u00fcdahaleler JGB<\/span> getirilerini tekrar %0,25 alt\u0131na indiriyor. Ancak tahvil piyasas\u0131 likidite metrikleri ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 di\u011fer yerlerdeki getiri e\u015fiklerinin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131na bakacak olursak; lira gerileyerek s\u0131k\u0131 bir i\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, oynakl\u0131k bir y\u0131ldan fazla bir s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Beklenen dalgalanmalar\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi olan lira bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k, Temmuz 2021’den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Offshore yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed’in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015fabilece\u011fi ve bankan\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Hazine getirilerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi konusunda spek\u00fclasyon yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u00f6nemli bir risk g\u00f6stergesi olan be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi temerr\u00fct swaplar\u0131<\/span>, alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi.<\/p>\n

Bu arada T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n genel m\u00fcd\u00fcrleri, Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Nureddin Nebati’yi, kendilerini devlet tahvili tutmaya zorlayan d\u00fczenlemeler konusunda “sistemik bir risk” konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Fiyatlar indikatiftir. Al\u0131m \/ Sat\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/em><\/p>\n

Kaynak: Tera Yat\u0131r\u0131m – Enver Erkan<\/em><\/p>\n

Bu makale ilk olarak Hibya Haber Ajans\u0131 \u00fczerinde yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD Hazineleri, Fed’in son zamanlardaki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye zarar verebilece\u011fine dair alg\u0131lanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00fczerine keskin bir …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66488,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[413,55,698],"class_list":["post-66487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-fed","tag-piyasa","tag-tahvil"],"yoast_head":"\nTahvil piyasas\u0131nda metrikler - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda metrikler\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ABD Hazineleri, Fed'in son zamanlardaki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye zarar verebilece\u011fine dair alg\u0131lanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00fczerine keskin bir ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Coin M\u00fchendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/coinmuhendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-26T13:40:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler-n2nB9xch.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"530\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\",\"@id\":\"\"},\"headline\":\"Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda metrikler\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-26T13:40:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":562,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler-n2nB9xch.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Fed\",\"piyasa\",\"Tahvi\u0307l\"],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2022\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/tahvil-piyasasinda-metrikler\\\/\",\"name\":\"Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda metrikler - 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