OPEC+ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde petrol i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc bir hafta m\u0131? Hayal etmesi zor ama son zamanlarda olan bu. “Ne ise o” derler ya, i\u015fte \u00f6yle.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na kadar ham petrol\u00fcn m\u00fckemmel bir ortam\u0131 vard\u0131. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan itibaren her ay Brent ve WTI fiyatlar\u0131 durmaks\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fckseldi, hatta Aral\u0131k ve Ocak aylar\u0131nda \u00e7ift haneli art\u0131\u015flar kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Ard\u0131ndan Suudi liderli\u011findeki OPEC+, piyasa \u00fczerinde neredeyse sars\u0131lmaz bir hakimiyet kurdu.<\/p>\n
Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’y\u0131 i\u015fgali ve bunu takip eden k\u00fcresel emtia karga\u015fas\u0131, Moskova’n\u0131n enerji konusunda Bat\u0131’dan fidye alma becerisi ve Suudilerin Vladimir Putin’i \u015f\u0131martmas\u0131, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 14 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kararak alt edilemeyen bir OPEC+ yan\u0131lsamas\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak o zamandan bu yana i\u015fler de\u011fi\u015fti, ABD’de yeni ba\u015flayan resesyon ve Avrupa’da daha derin bir yava\u015flama potansiyeli bunlardan biri.<\/p>\n
Son haftalarda ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lanarak \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin k\u00fcresel pazarda 1 milyon varile kadar petrol\u00fc yasal olarak ihra\u00e7 etmesine izin verebilecek bir anla\u015fma yenileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerine s\u00f6ylemler artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc hen\u00fcz \u0130ran\u2019la bir anla\u015fma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtti.<\/p>\n
Ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden uygulanmas\u0131 ile Tahran’\u0131n N\u00fckleer Silahlar\u0131n Yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6nleme Anla\u015fmas\u0131 kapsam\u0131ndaki y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri aras\u0131nda bir ba\u011flant\u0131 olmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu, Washington’un 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda Obama y\u00f6netiminin himayesinde \u0130ran ile alt\u0131 k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan anla\u015fman\u0131n yeniden canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fine dair \u015fimdiye kadarki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015faretti. Daha sonra g\u00f6reve gelen Trump y\u00f6netimi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda anla\u015fmay\u0131 iptal etmi\u015f ve Tahran’a yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar uygulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Joe Biden, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Ocak ay\u0131nda g\u00f6reve geldi\u011finde anla\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015flamas\u0131na izin verdi.<\/p>\n
Ve tam da g\u00fcn\u00fcn bitti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrken \u00c7in’in COVID-19 sorunlar\u0131 bu hafta yeniden su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve Shenzhen teknoloji merkezinin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgelerinde toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma kapat\u0131ld\u0131. Metro (IS:METRO) ve otob\u00fcs seferleri ask\u0131ya al\u0131n\u0131rken yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 milyon Shenzhen sakininin, hafta sonu boyunca iki kez koronavir\u00fcs testine tabi tutulmas\u0131 planland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki hafta i\u00e7inde ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da buna ekledi\u011finizde petrol bo\u011falar\u0131 i\u00e7in m\u00fckemmel bir f\u0131rt\u0131naya sahip olursunuz. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan A\u011fustos ay\u0131na ait nispeten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD istihdam raporu, 21 Eyl\u00fcl’deki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilecek bir konumda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
WTI haftal\u0131k %6,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Brent %6,4 de\u011fer kaybederek 95 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
New York enerji hedge fonu Again Capital’in kurucu orta\u011f\u0131 John Kilduff, “OPEC+ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde petrol\u00fcn bir hafta i\u00e7inde bu kadar de\u011fer kaybedebilece\u011fine inanmak zor.” dedi.<\/p>\n
“Ger\u00e7ek \u015fu ki OPEC+ piyasay\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutuyor ve Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131da \u00e7\u0131karacaklar\u0131 g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcyle, petrol\u00fcn bu haftaki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri alma ihtimali var. As\u0131l soru, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Bayram\u0131\u2019ndan dolay\u0131 piyasan\u0131n kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacimlere sahip olaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n devam edip etmeyece\u011fi.”<\/p>\n
Petrol: Piyasa Faaliyetleri\u00a0ve Fiyat \u00d6zeti<\/strong><\/p>\n New York’ta i\u015flem g\u00f6ren WTI, seans\u0131 26 sent art\u0131\u015fla 86,87 dolarla tamamlad\u0131ktan sonra 87,25 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. WTI’n\u0131n seans zirvesi 89,61 dolar oldu.<\/p>\n WTI, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %3,3, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %2,3 ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %5,5 de\u011fer kaybederek \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 seansta da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Bu da ABD ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc haftal\u0131k bazda %6,7 kay\u0131pla b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n Londra’da i\u015flem g\u00f6ren k\u00fcresel petrol g\u00f6stergesi Brent, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015flemlerini 66 sent art\u0131\u015fla 93,02 dolarda bitirdikten sonra son i\u015flemini 93,28 dolardan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Seans\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi 95,28 dolar oldu.<\/p>\n WTI gibi Brent de Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %4,5, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %2,8 ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %5 de\u011fer kaybederek \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 seans\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatt\u0131. Haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ise %6,4 oldu.<\/p>\n Petrol: WTI Teknik\u00a0Analiz<\/strong><\/p>\n SKCharting.com ba\u015f teknik stratejisti Sunil Kumar Dixit, WTI’n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96,50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Dixit, “WTI’n\u0131n 3,66\/12,08 haftal\u0131k a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m stokastikleri, daha fazla kayba i\u015faret eden negatif formasyonda kalmaya devam ediyor.” dedi.<\/p>\n “K\u0131sa vadeli toparlanma 91,37-92,60 dolar ve 95,80-96,30 dolara do\u011fru bir miktar hareket g\u00f6sterebilir. Ancak 96,50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kabul gerektirecektir.”<\/p>\n Bununla birlikte Dixit, WTI’n\u0131n 82,57 dolarl\u0131k ayl\u0131k Orta Bollinger Band\u0131n\u0131 test etmesini ve 97 dolara do\u011fru bir toparlanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirerek \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki hafta i\u00e7inde 101-104 dolara y\u00fckselmesini bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n “Ancak 82 dolar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sat\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 durumunda WTI, %78,6 Fibonacci seviyesi olan 77 dolarda de\u011ferli al\u0131c\u0131lar bulacakt\u0131r.”<\/p>\n Alt\u0131n: Piyasa Faaliyetleri\u00a0ve Fiyat \u00d6zeti<\/strong><\/p>\n Fed\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir sonraki karar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 hafta kald\u0131. Yine de son i\u015flemlerde neredeyse her g\u00fcn sadece k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6ren alt\u0131n bo\u011falar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu en uzun \u00fc\u00e7 hafta gibi gelebilir.<\/p>\n New York Comex’te alt\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015flemini 13,30 dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131ktan sonra son i\u015flemini 1.722,60 dolardan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Bundan \u00f6nce Aral\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi, 25 A\u011fustos’taki 1.771,40 dolarl\u0131k son pozitif kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan be\u015f seans \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131.<\/p>\n \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz haftada Aral\u0131k alt\u0131n\u0131 %1,6 d\u00fc\u015ferek son iki haftada arka arkaya ya\u015fanan %0,7 ve %2,9’luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yenisini ekledi. Vadeli alt\u0131n s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri de Ocak ay\u0131ndaki 1.954 dolarl\u0131k son pozitif kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana alt\u0131 ay art arda d\u00fc\u015ferek bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te neredeyse %12 de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n Vadeli i\u015flemlerden daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olan ise baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan vadeli i\u015flemlerden daha yak\u0131ndan takip edilen spot k\u00fcl\u00e7e fiyat\u0131 oldu \u2013 15,20 dolar artan spot fiyat, 1.712,84 dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n Alt\u0131n: Fiyat G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc <\/strong><\/p>\n SKCharting’den Dixit, alt\u0131n\u0131n 1.670 dolar\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesini beklemedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Dixit, “Alt\u0131n\u0131n 25\/11’lik a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik de\u011ferindeki pozitif \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fme, k\u0131sa vadeli bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.” dedi.<\/p>\n “Ancak bu toparlanma k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olabilir ve 1.726-1.735 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi alt\u0131n\u0131 tekrar 1.700-1.690 dolar k\u0131r\u0131lma b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru itebilir ve burada 200 haftal\u0131k Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 1.671 dolar test edilebilir.”<\/p>\n Dixit, orta vadede alt\u0131n\u0131n yeniden 1.800 dolar\u0131 deneyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n “1.726-1.735 dolarl\u0131k diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi alt\u0131n\u0131, 1.671 dolara kadar uzanabilecek 1.700-1.690 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden test etmesi i\u00e7in geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrebilir. Bu noktadan sonra y\u00fckseli\u015f, 1.760-1.785-1.800 dolarlar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir.”<\/p>\n “1.670 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemiyoruz.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yazar \u2013 Barani Krishnan Investing.com \u2013 OPEC+ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde petrol i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc bir hafta m\u0131? Hayal etmesi zor ama son zamanlarda olan bu …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":55720,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[1773],"class_list":["post-55719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-petrol"],"yoast_head":"\n