{"id":49921,"date":"2022-07-28T10:10:04","date_gmt":"2022-07-28T10:10:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=49921"},"modified":"2022-07-28T10:10:04","modified_gmt":"2022-07-28T10:10:04","slug":"tcmb-2022-enflasyon-tahminini-yuzde-604e-yukseltti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/tcmb-2022-enflasyon-tahminini-yuzde-604e-yukseltti\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB 2022 enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 60,4’e y\u00fckseltti"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu enflasyon raporu sunumunu yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Kavc\u0131o\u011flu’nun sunumunda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ifadeler \u015funlar oldu:<\/p>\n

Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen jeopolitik riskler ile pandemiden kaynaklanan aksamalar k\u00fcresel iktisadi faaliyeti olumsuz etkilemektedir.<\/p>\n

Para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomide belirgin yava\u015flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n

Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 bir miktar geriledi, tedarik s\u00fcreleri k\u0131sald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerdeki enflasyon 25 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Cari dengede \u00e7evrimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f iyile\u015fme devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131 normalle\u015fme e\u011filimine girdi\u011finde, ekonomimiz cari fazla verme kapasitesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r, bu durum T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00f6ne bir d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na, k\u0131sa vadeli finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n asgariye indi\u011fi ihracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olarak sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede devam etmektedir. Makine yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte i\u00e7 talep yataya yak\u0131n seyrederken, sanayi \u00fcretimi d\u0131\u015f talebin de etkisiyle g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Sanayi \u00fcretiminde g\u00f6zlenen art\u0131\u015f imalat sanayinin geneline yay\u0131ld\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131na da yans\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6stergeler ilave kapasite i\u015faret etmekte ve yat\u0131r\u0131m talebini desteklemektedir. Kapasite art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan firmalar\u0131n bulundu\u011fu sekt\u00f6rlerde daha da belirgin olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. E\u011filimin yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 \u00fcreten ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6zl\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Toplam istihdam edilen ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131 tarihsel y\u00fcksek seviyelere ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130stihdam a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 halen y\u00fcksek seviyelerde seyrediyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn ve pazar \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi son d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zlanmak suretiyle istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde artmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015flar, tedarik zincirindeki aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 t\u00fcketici kurlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam etmi\u015f, enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n temel belirleyici olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon Nisan raporunda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz patikan\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri ise daha olumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergilemektedir.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ithalat birim de\u011fer endeksi \u00f6zellikle enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi, enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7eken ana etkenlerden biri olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda Rusya ve Ukrayna aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle daha belirgin hale gelen arz ve talep dengesizliklerinin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte s\u00fcrmesi enerji fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonda talep ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

\u0130malat sanayi firmalar\u0131n\u0131n sipari\u015flerine y\u00f6nelik anket verileri, kartla harcamalar g\u00f6stergeleri ivme kayb\u0131na i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n

2.\u00e7eyrekte \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerinde yava\u015flama g\u00f6zlendi, 2.yar\u0131da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zlanacak. Almakta oldu\u011fumuz kararlarla en k\u0131sa zamanda enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc hedeflemekteyiz. Lirala\u015fma perspektifi ile ara\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 etkin olarak kulland\u0131k ve kullanmaya devam edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Son d\u00f6nemde makroihtiyati politikalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdik.<\/p>\n

Likidite, teminat ve zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 etkin olarak kullan\u0131yoruz. Parasal aktar\u0131m\u0131n etkinli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkinli\u011fi hissedilir ad\u0131m att\u0131k.<\/p>\n

Teminat d\u00fczenlemeleri kapsam\u0131nda ilk olarak May\u0131s ay\u0131nda para takas\u0131 ve bankalararas\u0131 para i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in D\u0130BS sepetinin kapsam\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdik.<\/p>\n

Ekonominin potansiyeli ile uyumlu bir parasal b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00f6zeterek, t\u00fcm faizlerin politika faizine yak\u0131nsamas\u0131 i\u00e7in gereken ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmaya devam edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Mevcut rapor d\u00f6neminin ba\u015f\u0131nda olu\u015fan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tahmin sapmas\u0131 son d\u00f6nemdeki olumlu geli\u015fmelerle telafi edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Ham petrol ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n genel seviyesine ili\u015fkin varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 2022 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda koruduk.<\/p>\n

2022 y\u0131l sonu g\u0131da enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 49’dan y\u00fczde 71,3’e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

2022 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 42,8’den y\u00fczde 60,4’e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun 2023 y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 19,2 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun 2024 y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 8,8 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Uygulanan politikalarla kredi geli\u015fiminde normalle\u015fme ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin cari fazla verdi\u011fini g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun atalete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok yo\u011fun ve sert tedbirlerle bu s\u00fcreci k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede terse \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in kararlar almaya devam ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada \u00fclkelerin yap\u0131s\u0131 itibar\u0131yla tedbirlere kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k resesyon s\u00fcreci konu\u015fuluyor, IMF t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde g\u00fcncelledi, T\u00fcrkiye yukar\u0131 do\u011fru g\u00fcncellenen tek \u00fclke konumunda.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada resesyonun konu\u015fulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tek \u00fclke T\u00fcrkiye.<\/p>\n

Rusya ile yerel paralarla ticaret i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli mesafe kat ettik.<\/p>\n

Rusya taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerimiz devam ediyor, sadece Rusya de\u011fil di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle de swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ROM’u kald\u0131rd\u0131k, lirala\u015fmay\u0131 \u00f6ncelendirdik, etkin \u015fekilde kullan\u0131m arac\u0131 hale getirece\u011fiz, Merkez Bankas\u0131 kendi y\u00f6netti\u011fi, ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararlarda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 lirala\u015fmay\u0131 \u00f6nceleyerek al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Rezervlerimiz ge\u00e7en y\u0131l da ayn\u0131 seviyedeydi, bu y\u0131l da ayn\u0131 seviyelerde, enerji maliyeti artt\u0131, t\u00fcm \u00f6demelerini rahatl\u0131kla \u00f6d\u00fcyor, \u00f6deyecek, bunlar i\u00e7in yeterli rezervlerimiz, g\u00fcc\u00fcm\u00fcz var, \u00e7ok iyi durumda, rezerv erimesi de\u011fil rezerv de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi var.<\/p>\n

(Rusya ile yerel parayla ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri) Ticaretimizde o kadar fark ya\u015fanm\u0131yor, ticaret kendi dengesini buluyor, enerji \u00f6demelerimiz, ticaret, turizm var, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6nemli bir noktaya geldi.<\/p>\n

Dijital para ile ilgili g\u00fczel haberleri k\u0131sa zamanda verece\u011fiz, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar olumlu \u015fekilde devam ediyor, sona do\u011fru geliyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde rezervlerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz, YUVAM’da hedefledi\u011fimiz y\u0131l sonu rakam\u0131na do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fcnyadaki en iyi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor, bu kadar sa\u011flam ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00f6yle bir CDS’i hak etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu enflasyon raporu sunumunu yap\u0131yor. Kavc\u0131o\u011flu’nun sunumunda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ifadeler \u015funlar …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49922,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[317,503],"class_list":["post-49921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-para","tag-ulke"],"yoast_head":"\nTCMB 2022 enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 60,4'e y\u00fckseltti - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/tcmb-2022-enflasyon-tahminini-yuzde-604e-yukseltti\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"TCMB 2022 enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 60,4'e y\u00fckseltti\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu enflasyon raporu sunumunu yap\u0131yor. 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