Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi, (BETAM) Prof. Dr. Ozan Bak\u0131\u015f ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma G\u00f6revlisi U\u011furcan Acar taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan “Yu\u0308ksek Bu\u0308yu\u0308me Su\u0308ru\u0308yor” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmr notunu yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, kesinle\u015fen Nisan, May\u0131s ve k\u0131smen a\u00e7\u0131klanan Haziran ay\u0131 GSYH \u00f6ncu\u0308 g\u00f6stergeleri ile yap\u0131lan hesaplamalara g\u00f6re 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine k\u0131yasla GSYH\u2019nin yu\u0308zde 5,7 oran\u0131nda bu\u0308yu\u0308me \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verilerle yap\u0131lan hesaplamalarla ise 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla GSYH\u2019nin yu\u0308zde 1,1 bu\u0308yu\u0308yece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, Du\u0308nya Bankas\u0131 ve OECD Tu\u0308rkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 bu\u0308yu\u0308me tahminini s\u0131ras\u0131yla yu\u0308zde 2,3 ve yu\u0308zde 3,7\u2019ye yu\u0308kseltti\u011fi, IMF’nin de yu\u0308zde 2,7 olan tahminini yu\u0308zde 4\u2019e yu\u0308kseltti\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici kredilerinde d\u00f6rtte biri a\u015fan azalma<\/b><\/p>\n
2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla \u00d6TV\u2019de y\u00fczde 15\u2019e varan bir art\u0131\u015f, kredilerde ise y\u00fczde 6 civar\u0131nda bir azal\u0131\u015f tahmin edildi. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda konut kredileri, t\u00fcketici kredileri ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda d\u00f6rtte biri a\u015fan azalmalar hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kamu harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fcksek artt\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n
Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriye g\u00f6re, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 23 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise kamunun yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 7,8\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f hesapland\u0131. Perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki stok seviyesi art\u0131\u015fa devam ederken, t\u00fcketici kredilerinde oldu\u011fu gibi ticari kredilerde de d\u00f6rtte bire varan azal\u0131\u015f tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f ticarette g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olumlu<\/b><\/p>\n
2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ihracatta y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, ithalatta ise y\u00fczde 0,6 azal\u0131\u015f tahmin edildi. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrek d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi aleyhine olan geli\u015fmelerin bu \u00e7eyrekte lehte olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine k\u0131yasla bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,4, ithalat\u0131n ise 0,1 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
GSYH tahmininde kullan\u0131lan di\u011fer mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fkenlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne olan talepte y\u00fczde 1, elektrik t\u00fcketiminde ise y\u00fczde 4 azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlendi. Yat\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerinin ise pozitif oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemi ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 8, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc talebinde ise y\u00fczde 12,8 art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi, (BETAM) Prof. Dr. Ozan Bak\u0131\u015f ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma G\u00f6revlisi U\u011furcan Acar taraf\u0131ndan …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49893,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[775],"class_list":["post-49892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-tahmin"],"yoast_head":"\n