{"id":49670,"date":"2022-07-27T17:00:04","date_gmt":"2022-07-27T17:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=49670"},"modified":"2022-07-27T17:39:54","modified_gmt":"2022-07-27T17:39:54","slug":"fed-faiz-karari-bugun-5-analist-altin-icin-bunlari-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-faiz-karari-bugun-5-analist-altin-icin-bunlari-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Faiz Karar\u0131 Bug\u00fcn: 5 Analist, Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in Bunlar\u0131 Bekliyor!"},"content":{"rendered":"

B\u00fcy\u00fck bir sat\u0131\u015ftan sonra, alt\u0131n 1.700 dolar seviyesinde konsolide oluyor. Analistlere g\u00f6re, yakla\u015fan Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz oran\u0131 karar\u0131, de\u011ferli metale yeni y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc veren \u015fey olabilir.<\/p>\n

\u201cFed karar\u0131, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n sonraki hamlesini belirleyecek\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan bir notla ba\u015flatt\u0131. Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong>\u2019dan\u00a0takip etti\u011finiz \u00fczere DXY, 20 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu ortamda sar\u0131 metal, Temmuz ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k% 6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar g\u00fcvenlik i\u00e7in dolara ka\u00e7t\u0131. Ancak, OANDA k\u0131demli piyasa analisti Edward Moya, Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki Fed karar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131n sonraki hamlesi i\u00e7in gereken olay olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu ba\u011flamda analist, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Bu, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in de\u011ferli metalin belini k\u0131racak ya da en y\u00fcksek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair umut verecek bir an. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ekonomik yava\u015flaman\u0131n fiyatlama bask\u0131lar\u0131yla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe katk\u0131da bulunaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda iyimserler. Bu da Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u015finin y\u0131l sonuna kadar olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Edward Moya, piyasalar\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu durumda alt\u0131n\u0131n 1.700 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam edebilece\u011fini de s\u00f6zlerine ekliyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cFed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in ima edece\u011fi oran alt\u0131na bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Ancak Powell\u2019\u0131n toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yapaca\u011f\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda neler s\u00f6yleyece\u011fi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacak. Bu, \u00f6zellikle Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar Fed\u2019in makro tahminlerinde ve nokta planlar\u0131nda herhangi bir g\u00fcncelleme olmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli. Powell, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 75 baz puanl\u0131k ba\u015fka bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu ima ederse, alt\u0131na bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 daha olumsuz olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Edward Moya, \u015fu yorumu yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Fed, gelecekteki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6r\u00fcngesinde kendilerini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir duru\u015fa kilitlemeyecek. Ancak daha agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n masada oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyecek bir konumda olmayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cJerome Powell, se\u00e7ti\u011fi kelimelere dikkat edecektir\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

FXTM k\u0131demli ara\u015ft\u0131rma analisti Lukman Otunuga, piyasalar\u0131n enflasyon ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki yolu ile ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalara kar\u015f\u0131 son derece tetikte kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bunun i\u00e7in Powell\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ti\u011fi kelimelere dikkat edece\u011fini kaydediyor. Otunuga Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u015fu hu\u015fulardan bahsediyor:<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in, politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla ekonomiye daha fazla ac\u0131 \u00e7ekerken enflasyonu s\u00f6nd\u00fcrme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulamas\u0131 muhtemel. Ayr\u0131ca, i\u015f anketi verilerinde zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve i\u015fsizlik iddialar\u0131 ile ilgili son verilerden endi\u015fe verici i\u015faretler var.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u00d6nemli bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131: Durgunluk<\/b><\/p>\n

CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re, Temmuz ay\u0131nda 100 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in hala %25 \u015fans var. Ayr\u0131ca, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %51. Ayn\u0131 zamanda 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %41. 75 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise sadece %8. Bir endi\u015fe de, zamanlamas\u0131 hala analistler ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmakta olan yakla\u015fan ekonomik gerileme. Edward Moya, konuya ili\u015fkin olarak \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

Ekonominin bir\u00e7ok par\u00e7as\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi enflasyonun tam etkisinin gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131nda bir durgunlu\u011fu tetiklemesini bekliyor. Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde resesyon i\u00e7in riskler var. Ancak temel durum bu olmamal\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda her toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmak kolay bir karar. Ancak May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n hala ikna edici kan\u0131tlara ihtiyac\u0131 var.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cFed faiz karar\u0131na kadar alt\u0131n beklemede kalacak\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

ABD dolar\u0131 da Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde Steam\u2019i ald\u0131 ve ABD Dolar Endeksi 107\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Lukman Otunuga\u2019ya g\u00f6re, Fed 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla ilerlerse, bu dolar bo\u011falar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc koltu\u011funda tutmak i\u00e7in yeterli olmayabilir. Analist, b\u00f6yle bir hareketin, Powell\u2019\u0131n bu y\u0131l daha agresif zamlarla ilgili spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 besleyen kat\u0131 \u015fahin yorumlar\u0131yla tamamlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019in beklenenden daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015fla piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 durumunda ne olur? Analiste g\u00f6re, bununu, dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Otunuga, bunu alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisini \u015fu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed faiz karar\u0131na kadar alt\u0131n beklemede kalacak. Fed 75 bazl\u0131 bir oran art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile ilerledi\u011finde alt\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6rmek ilgin\u00e7 olacak. K\u0131ymetli metal s\u0131f\u0131r-getiri durumu nedeniyle zay\u0131flayacak m\u0131? Yoksa daha zay\u0131f bir dolar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak m\u0131?<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cDolara devam eden fon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Ancak ABN AMRO\u2019nun k\u0131demli ekonomisti Bill Diviney, bir resesyon ilan\u0131n\u0131n bile Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak i\u00e7in yeterli olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Kurumsal dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k firmas\u0131 AirGuide\u2019\u0131n direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Michael Langford, 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla, k\u00fcl\u00e7enin, Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra, ne kadar short kapaman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, zemini veya trendi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Langford, \u015fu tahminlerini payla\u015f\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ay boyunca faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 devam edecek. Bu, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacak. Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 1.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lacak. Bunun temel nedeni ise dolara devam eden fon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cVerimlerde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz rahatlama alt\u0131n i\u00e7in iyi bir i\u015faret\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Bu arada, ABD t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni, bu ay son 1-1,5 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Bu da artan enflasyon ve y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00fcrekli endi\u015feler aras\u0131nda, harcamalar\u0131 azaltabilecek ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131nda yava\u015flayan ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Reuters\u2019in ekonomistlerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anketlere g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel ekonomi ciddi bir yava\u015flaman\u0131n pen\u00e7esinde. Baz\u0131 kilit ekonomiler y\u00fcksek resesyon riski alt\u0131nda. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l enflasyonda yaln\u0131zca seyrek anlaml\u0131 bir so\u011fuma var. K\u0131demli analist Edward Moya, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Verimlerde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz rahatlama alt\u0131n i\u00e7in iyi bir i\u015faret. Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrekli korku, jeopolitik sorunlar ve enerji s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rsa, g\u00fcvenli liman i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir talep olacak. Ancak, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f daha yapmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu hissederse, bu alt\u0131n i\u00e7in sorun olacak.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Giovanni Staunovo, alt\u0131n\u0131n 1.600 dolara d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyor<\/b><\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n faiz getirmeyen bir varl\u0131k. Bunun i\u00e7in artan faiz oranlar\u0131 onu daha az \u00e7ekici hale getiriyor. Bununla birlikte, alt\u0131n, ekonomik belirsizlikler aras\u0131nda bir enflasyon riskinden korunma arac\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenli bir de\u011fer deposu olarak kabul g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. UBS analisti Giovanni Staunovo, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 1.600 dolara d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ederek, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle 2022\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonist risk azal\u0131rken, bu y\u0131l reel faiz oranlar\u0131nda daha fazla art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle, borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar\u0131n ek tasfiyesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

B\u00fcy\u00fck bir sat\u0131\u015ftan sonra, alt\u0131n 1.700 dolar seviyesinde konsolide oluyor. Analistlere g\u00f6re, yakla\u015fan Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz oran\u0131 karar\u0131, de\u011ferli …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":49671,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[413],"class_list":["post-49670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-fed"],"yoast_head":"\nFED Faiz Karar\u0131 Bug\u00fcn: 5 Analist, Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in Bunlar\u0131 Bekliyor! - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-faiz-karari-bugun-5-analist-altin-icin-bunlari-bekliyor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FED Faiz Karar\u0131 Bug\u00fcn: 5 Analist, Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in Bunlar\u0131 Bekliyor!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"B\u00fcy\u00fck bir sat\u0131\u015ftan sonra, alt\u0131n 1.700 dolar seviyesinde konsolide oluyor. 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