{"id":39870,"date":"2022-07-19T15:20:04","date_gmt":"2022-07-19T12:20:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=39870"},"modified":"2022-07-19T15:20:04","modified_gmt":"2022-07-19T12:20:04","slug":"ekonomistler-altin-tahminlerini-paylasti-onumuzdeki-haftalarda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/ekonomistler-altin-tahminlerini-paylasti-onumuzdeki-haftalarda\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomistler Alt\u0131n Tahminlerini Payla\u015ft\u0131: \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Haftalarda\u2026\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 yeni haftaya olumlu bir notla ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en hafta dokundu\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden uzakla\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak piyasa analisti Haresh Menghani\u2019ye g\u00f6re, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i art\u0131\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f inanc\u0131ndan yoksundu. Bu nedenle 1.725 dolar seviyesinin hemen \u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti. TD Securities\u2019deki ekonomistler ise sar\u0131 metalin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Dolar\u0131n gerilemesi, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131 destekledi<\/b><\/p>\n

ABD dolar\u0131, ge\u00e7en haftaki yirmi y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinden geri \u00e7ekilme d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu arada Temmuz\u2019da Fed\u2019in 100 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ihtimaller azald\u0131. Bu nedenle dolar art arda ikinci g\u00fcn yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015flara tan\u0131k oluyor. Bu da, \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6r olarak dolar cinsinden alt\u0131na bir miktar destek sunuyor.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta bir\u00e7ok Federal Rezerv yetkilisi, piyasalar\u0131n fiyatland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 desteklemediklerinin sinyallerini verdi. Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong>\u2019dan takip etti\u011finiz \u00fczere, Haziran ay\u0131nda ABD T\u00dcFE 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bunun ard\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n devasa bir Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in bahislerini y\u00fckseltti. Ancak, bahislerin ibresi daha sonra 75 baz puana d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Daha az \u015fahin FOMC \u00fcyeleri, USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n

En \u015fahin FOMC \u00fcyelerinden ikisi (Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christopher Waller ve St. Louis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jim Bullard) Fed\u2019in daha agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerine kar\u015f\u0131 geri ad\u0131m att\u0131. Buna ek olarak, Atlanta Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Raphael Bostic Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok dramatik hareketlerin ekonominin olumlu y\u00f6nlerini zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rabilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131. Piyasa analisti Haresh Menghani, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Bu geli\u015fmeler de dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. Bununla birlikte, bir dizi fakt\u00f6r, y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 agresif bahisler yapmaktan al\u0131koyuyor. En az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n herhangi bir anlaml\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Risk alma d\u00fcrt\u00fcs\u00fc, k\u00fcl\u00e7e i\u00e7in ters bir r\u00fczgar g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor<\/b><\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131, Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nceden korkulandan daha az agresif olaca\u011f\u0131na dair umutlar aras\u0131nda bir kar\u015f\u0131 trend y\u00fckseli\u015fine tan\u0131k oluyor. Risk alma d\u00fcrt\u00fcs\u00fc, ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinde yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikledi. Bu da g\u00fcvenli liman alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ters bir r\u00fczgar g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Analist, \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda, g\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD devlet tahvilinin faizi %3,0 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, USD i\u00e7in daha derin kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. Ayr\u0131ca, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r kazan\u00e7lar\u0131na daha fazla katk\u0131da bulunuyor. Bu nedenle, spot fiyatlar\u0131n dibe vurdu\u011funu teyit etmeden \u00f6nce g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131mlar\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131 beklemek ihtiyatl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/b><\/p>\n

Haresh Menghani, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fu \u015fekilde analiz ediyor. Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 tekrar tekrar 1.700 dolarl\u0131k yuvarlak rakam i\u015faretinin alt\u0131nda bir miktar esneklik g\u00f6sterdi. Bununla birlikte, metalin anlaml\u0131 bir \u00e7eki\u015f elde edememesi, k\u0131sa vadeli risklerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da, 1.725-1.726 dolar ani direncinin \u00f6tesinde sonraki herhangi bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn, 1.734-1.735 dolar yatay b\u00f6lge yak\u0131n\u0131nda sert diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yukar\u0131daki s\u00fcrekli bir hareketin, bir short sat\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemini tetiklemesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bunun da alt\u0131n\u0131 1.749-1.752 dolar arz b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseltmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u00d6te yandan, ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n 1.698-1.697 dolar alan\u0131 civar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi, \u015fimdi hemen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc durumu koruyor gibi. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, alt\u0131n\u0131 savunmas\u0131z hale getirecek. Eyl\u00fcl 2021\u2019in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine, yani 1.787-1.786 dolar b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Alt\u0131n\u0131n, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc gidi\u015fat\u0131, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 1.677-1.676 dolar alan\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131nda test etmeye do\u011fru geni\u015fletmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n

\u201cPara y\u00f6neticileri, net long alt\u0131n risklerini agresif bir \u015fekilde azaltt\u0131\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n, hafta sonunda 1.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 test etti. TD Securities ekonomistleri, sar\u0131 metalin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ekonomistler, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

E\u011frinin k\u0131sa ucundaki reel faizlerin artmaya devam edece\u011fi \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k hale geldi. Ayr\u0131ca, nominal politika faizlerinin yukar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kma \u015fans\u0131 \u00e7ok az. Bu y\u00fczden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar net pozisyonu, a\u00e7\u0131k faizin %6\u2019s\u0131 kadar (3 milyon ons) \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir oranda kestiler. Bekleyen ekonomik \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fle birlikte enflasyon beklentileri de a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. Fed\u2019in art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 devam ediyor ve ekonomik aktivite daha az. Bu nedenle alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda da bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalacak.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

TDS: Alt\u0131n, ek olumsuzluk g\u00f6rmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor<\/b><\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plar ya\u015fad\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck haftal\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. TD Securities\u2019deki stratejistler, sar\u0131 metalin daha fazla kay\u0131p ya\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu ba\u011flamda, \u015fu tahminleri yap\u0131yorlar:<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, trendin tersine \u00e7evrilmesi e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131. Bu da \u015fu an i\u00e7in sar\u0131 metalde bir ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 trade rejiminin teyidi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Fiyatlar o zamandan beri 1.600 dolarl\u0131k seviyeye do\u011fru giderken \u00e7e\u015fitli destek seviyelerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Fedspeak, baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u015fahinlerden gelen 100 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 geri ad\u0131m att\u0131. \u00d6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli bir short-squeeze riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da ek olumsuzluk i\u00e7in ideal d\u00fczeni yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 yeni haftaya olumlu bir notla ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en hafta dokundu\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden uzakla\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak piyasa …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":39871,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7],"tags":[413],"class_list":["post-39870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coin","category-nft","tag-fed"],"yoast_head":"\nEkonomistler Alt\u0131n Tahminlerini Payla\u015ft\u0131: \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Haftalarda\u2026\u00a0 - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/ekonomistler-altin-tahminlerini-paylasti-onumuzdeki-haftalarda\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ekonomistler Alt\u0131n Tahminlerini Payla\u015ft\u0131: \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Haftalarda\u2026\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 yeni haftaya olumlu bir notla ba\u015fl\u0131yor. 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