{"id":39800,"date":"2022-07-19T11:00:07","date_gmt":"2022-07-19T08:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=39800"},"modified":"2022-07-19T11:00:07","modified_gmt":"2022-07-19T08:00:07","slug":"bu-altin-tahminine-dikkat-tarih-tekerrur-edecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/bu-altin-tahminine-dikkat-tarih-tekerrur-edecek-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Bu Alt\u0131n Tahminine Dikkat: Tarih Tekerr\u00fcr Edecek Mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Kemerlerinizi ba\u011flay\u0131n! Piyasa uzman\u0131 Piero Cingari\u2019ye g\u00f6re, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n f\u0131rlamas\u0131na neden olan belirli bir enflasyon e\u015fi\u011fi var. Cingari, enflasyonun kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Inflaggedon\u2018u a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, bu durumda alt\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l performans g\u00f6sterece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Traderlar neden Inflageddon\u2019a haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131?<\/b><\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel ekonomi \u015fu anda yeni bir \u2018Inflaggedon\u2019un ya da geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayan bir noktan\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde. Bu durumda enflasyon beklentileri sabit kal\u0131yor. \u0130nsanlar umutsuzca paralar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alma de\u011ferini koruyan herhangi bir \u015feye yat\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Di\u011fer her \u015fey bir kart evi gibi par\u00e7alan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
Haziran 2022\u2019de ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE), Kas\u0131m 1981\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek olan y\u0131ll\u0131k %9,1 oran\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Bir kez daha piyasa beklentilerini (%8,8) a\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyon \u00fcst \u00fcste 25 ay boyunca artt\u0131. B\u00f6yle bir ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f en son 1970\u2019lerin ortas\u0131ndaki B\u00fcy\u00fck Enflasyon s\u0131ras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bununla birlikte, en endi\u015fe verici konu, enflasyonun art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca gaz ve petrol gibi g\u0131da ve enerji emtialar\u0131ndaki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olmamas\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
Bunun yerine, modern geli\u015fmi\u015f d\u00fcnyada en yayg\u0131n t\u00fcketim bile\u015fenleri olan konut, restoran, ula\u015f\u0131m ve t\u0131bbi bak\u0131m gibi hizmetlerde enflasyon giderek daha fazla yerle\u015fik hale geliyor. Hizmet enflasyonu, \u015fu anda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,2 ile otuz y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcrenin en zirvesinde.<\/p>\n
K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama T\u00dcFE, enflasyonun art\u0131k t\u00fcm t\u00fcketici sepetine orman yang\u0131n\u0131 gibi yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren bir ba\u015fka g\u00f6sterge. K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama enflasyon, daha net bir enflasyon sinyali almak i\u00e7in da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcndeki ve alt\u0131ndaki en d\u00fczensiz \u00f6\u011feleri \u2018k\u0131rpar\u2019. Burada, seri ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri en y\u00fcksek olan y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,5 oran\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131k. Bizi buraya getiren fakt\u00f6rlerin kapsaml\u0131 ve ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 analiz edilmesi gerekiyor. Peki Inflaggedon, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyecek?<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
Enflasyon kontrolden \u00e7\u0131karsa alt\u0131n nas\u0131l performans g\u00f6sterir?<\/b><\/p>\n
Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong>\u2019dan takip etti\u011finiz \u00fczere ABD enflasyon oran\u0131 k\u0131rk y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir en y\u00fcksek seviyede. Ortalama enflasyon endi\u015fe verici seviyeler g\u00f6steriyor<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
Alt\u0131n genellikle etkili bir enflasyon riskinden korunma arac\u0131 olarak kabul g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Ayr\u0131ca, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc enflasyonun zararl\u0131 etkilerinden koruyabilen bir varl\u0131k oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenir. Ancak, veriler, alt\u0131n ve enflasyon aras\u0131nda her zaman net bir ili\u015fki olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Esasen, y\u00fckselen enflasyonun alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa neden olmas\u0131 veya bunun tersi her zaman ge\u00e7erli de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda tan\u0131k oldu\u011fumuz gibi, enflasyonist bask\u0131lar sar\u0131 metalde b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u0131mlara yol a\u00e7mad\u0131. Enflasyonun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen birka\u00e7 \u015fey var. Ancak enflasyon \u00e7ift haneli seviyeleri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n\u0131n performans\u0131 her zaman tavan yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon ve alt\u0131n: \u0130\u015fte bu \u015fok edici tablo ne diyor?<\/b><\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik, ABD T\u00dcFE\u2018nin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %11 ve \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (yatay eksen), alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini (dikey eksen) g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\nEnflasyon \u00e7ift hanelere \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca alt\u0131n f\u0131rlad\u0131<\/figure>\n
Enflasyon tek hanelerde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iki de\u011fi\u015fken aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131 zay\u0131f. Genel olarak, enflasyon %10\u2019un alt\u0131ndayken alt\u0131n tutars\u0131z bir performans sergiledi. Ancak %10\u2019u a\u015fan enflasyon oranlar\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini tetikledi. Bu, tarihte yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 kez oldu. Ancak \u00e7o\u011funlukla 1970\u2019lerin B\u00fcy\u00fck Enflasyonu s\u0131ras\u0131nda. Enflasyon bu kadar y\u00fckselirken alt\u0131n\u0131n fiyat\u0131 neden y\u00fckseliyor?<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n ve enflasyon: G\u00fcven ve korku kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bir sigorta<\/b><\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, alt\u0131n devlet taraf\u0131ndan ihra\u00e7 edilen ka\u011f\u0131t para birimi ile rekabet etmi\u015ftir. Dolardan farkl\u0131 olarak alt\u0131n, do\u011fada sabit bir miktar oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bir merkez bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan bas\u0131lamaz. \u00d6te yandan reel ekonomide her g\u00fcn bir \u015feyler al\u0131p satmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n de\u011fil ka\u011f\u0131t dolar kullanmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Ancak, insanlar merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketici fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol etme yetene\u011fine olan g\u00fcvenlerini yitirdi\u011finde ve para birimlerinin ger\u00e7ek sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerinde, alt\u0131n almak i\u00e7in acele ederler.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun %10\u2019luk psikolojik engeli a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda, g\u00fcvenilirlik kayb\u0131n\u0131n tetiklenmesi muhtemeldir. \u0130\u015flerin psikolojik y\u00f6n\u00fc, insanlar\u0131n paralar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l idare ettikleri konusunda \u00f6nemli bir rol oynuyor. Do\u011fal olarak, \u00e7ift haneli enflasyon oranlar\u0131 kritik bir endi\u015fe yarat\u0131yor. Ya t\u00fcm bunlar h\u00fck\u00fcmetin borcunu yapay olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in tasarlanm\u0131\u015fsa?<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
Bir \u00fclkenin borcunu azaltman\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 yolu var. Birincisi, politik olarak ba\u015far\u0131lmas\u0131 zor olan vergileri art\u0131rarak veya h\u00fck\u00fcmet harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak \u2018kemer s\u0131kma\u2019 programlar\u0131n\u0131 uygulamakt\u0131r. \u0130kinci yol, teknolojik ilerlemeyi gerektiren ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00f6nlendiren artan \u00fcretkenliktir. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u00f6ntem ve belki de en basiti enflasyondur.<\/p>\n
Tarih, bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin borcunu \u015fi\u015firme fikrinin, para birimi deval\u00fcasyonu ve de\u011fer kayb\u0131 korkusunda art\u0131\u015fa neden oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 2021\u2019in sonunda, ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7\/GSY\u0130H oran\u0131, 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %137\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131. Federal Rezerv politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fimdi agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele ediyor. Belki de Fed \u00e7ok ge\u00e7 uyand\u0131. Ya da enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel enerji krizi gibi para politikas\u0131n\u0131n kapsam\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki fakt\u00f6rlerden kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Mesele \u015fu ki, enflasyonun politik nedenlerle kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine dair bir endi\u015fe var. Bu durumda, enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 bir \u00f6nlem olarak alt\u0131na olan talep h\u0131zla art\u0131yor. Bu da k\u00fcl\u00e7enin fiyat\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015fa neden oluyor. 1970\u2019ler kan\u0131t olarak hizmet etti. 2022\u2019de tarih tekerr\u00fcr m\u00fc edecek?<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kemerlerinizi ba\u011flay\u0131n! Piyasa uzman\u0131 Piero Cingari\u2019ye g\u00f6re, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n f\u0131rlamas\u0131na neden olan belirli bir enflasyon e\u015fi\u011fi var. Cingari …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":39801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7],"tags":[1431,317],"class_list":["post-39800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coin","category-nft","tag-neden","tag-para"],"yoast_head":"\n
Bu Alt\u0131n Tahminine Dikkat: Tarih Tekerr\u00fcr Edecek Mi? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/bu-altin-tahminine-dikkat-tarih-tekerrur-edecek-mi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bu Alt\u0131n Tahminine Dikkat: Tarih Tekerr\u00fcr Edecek Mi?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemerlerinizi ba\u011flay\u0131n! Piyasa uzman\u0131 Piero Cingari\u2019ye g\u00f6re, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n f\u0131rlamas\u0131na neden olan belirli bir enflasyon e\u015fi\u011fi var. 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Piyasa uzman\u0131 Piero Cingari\u2019ye g\u00f6re, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n f\u0131rlamas\u0131na neden olan belirli bir enflasyon e\u015fi\u011fi var. 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