{"id":38224,"date":"2022-07-13T03:00:07","date_gmt":"2022-07-13T00:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=38224"},"modified":"2024-04-03T05:49:54","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T02:49:54","slug":"quant-insight-altinin-gercek-fiyati-bu-seviyeler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/quant-insight-altinin-gercek-fiyati-bu-seviyeler\/","title":{"rendered":"Quant Insight: Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n Ger\u00e7ek Fiyat\u0131 Bu Seviyeler!\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygun de\u011fere g\u00f6re indirimli durumda. Ancak bir piyasa analistine g\u00f6re, Federal Rezerv para politikas\u0131n\u0131 agresif bir \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kenarda kalmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n

Modele g\u00f6re alt\u0131n\u0131n rayi\u00e7 de\u011feri 1.791 dolar<\/b><\/p>\n

Quant Insight Analitik Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Huw Roberts, verdi\u011fi bir r\u00f6portajda, alt\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygun de\u011ferine k\u0131yasla ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ancak, makroekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini desteklemedi\u011fini de kaydediyor. QI\u2019nin modellemesine g\u00f6re alt\u0131n\u0131n rayi\u00e7 de\u011ferinin 1.791 dolar civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de s\u00f6zlerine ekliyor.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Yorumlar, alt\u0131n\u0131n 1.730 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli deste\u011fine sahip olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi bulmakta zorlanmas\u0131 \u00fczerine geldi. Huw Roberts, QI\u2019nin alt\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygun de\u011fer modelini \u00e7ok geni\u015f terimlerle de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Modelde, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, reel faizler, getiri e\u011frisi ve kredi marjlar\u0131 dahil finansal ko\u015fullar, para politikas\u0131 ortam\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u015fu anda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m sinyaline sahip de\u011filiz\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Huw Roberts, QI modellerinin makroekonomik temellerin alt\u0131n i\u00e7in bozuldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, bunun yak\u0131n vadede daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret edebilece\u011fini ekliyor. QI modellemesini kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sat\u0131n almadan \u00f6nce makro resmin en az\u0131ndan stabilize olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini kaydediyor. Bu ba\u011flamda Roberts, \u015fu yorumu yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Model alt\u0131n\u0131n ucuz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterse de asl\u0131nda \u015fu anda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir al\u0131m sinyaline sahip de\u011filiz. Saf bir QI perspektifinden. Makro model de\u011ferinin daha da y\u00fckselmesini istiyoruz.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek 16 fakt\u00f6r!<\/b><\/p>\n

Roberts, alt\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 neyin de\u011fi\u015ftirebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini payla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu bak\u0131mdan modelin faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki e\u011filimde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu bak\u0131mdan Roberts, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek 16 fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdiklerini kaydediyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak, piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r enflasyon olmaya devam ediyor. QI\u2019nin ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, enflasyon alt\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygun de\u011ferinin %18\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cBu zamana kadar model de\u011ferimiz stabilize olmayacak!\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Enflasyon son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen reel getiriler y\u00fckseliyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, resesyon korkular\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a nominal ve reel getiriler aras\u0131ndaki fark olan ba\u015faba\u015f seviyeleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Roberts, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Ba\u015faba\u015flar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Piyasa bir durgunluk ve d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon hakk\u0131nda endi\u015feleniyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu fakt\u00f6rler d\u00f6nene veya sadece stabilize olana kadar, model de\u011ferimiz stabilize olmayacak.<\/p>\n

Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong>\u2019dan takip etti\u011finiz \u00fczere piyasa, Fed\u2019den bir ba\u015fka ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, son g\u00fcnlerde durgunluk korkular\u0131 artt\u0131. Bu arada piyasalar, Fed\u2019in faizleri ay sonunda 75 baz puan daha art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygun de\u011fere g\u00f6re indirimli durumda. Ancak bir piyasa analistine g\u00f6re, Federal Rezerv para politikas\u0131n\u0131 agresif bir …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":38225,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7],"tags":[1040,610,883],"class_list":["post-38224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coin","category-nft","tag-model","tag-qi","tag-roberts"],"yoast_head":"\nQuant Insight: Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n Ger\u00e7ek Fiyat\u0131 Bu Seviyeler!\u00a0 - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/quant-insight-altinin-gercek-fiyati-bu-seviyeler\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Quant Insight: Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n Ger\u00e7ek Fiyat\u0131 Bu Seviyeler!\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygun de\u011fere g\u00f6re indirimli durumda. 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