{"id":36297,"date":"2022-07-04T00:30:14","date_gmt":"2022-07-03T21:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=36297"},"modified":"2022-07-04T00:30:14","modified_gmt":"2022-07-03T21:30:14","slug":"bitcoin-dolar-ters-korelasyon-17-ayin-zirvesinde-sirada-ne-var","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/bitcoin-dolar-ters-korelasyon-17-ayin-zirvesinde-sirada-ne-var\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin-Dolar Ters Korelasyon 17 Ay\u0131n Zirvesinde! S\u0131rada Ne Var?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Piyasa uzmanlar\u0131, dolar rallisinin 2022\u2019nin sonuna kadar durmas\u0131n\u0131 veya d\u00fczeltilmesini bekliyor. Bitcoin (BTC), 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n tersi y\u00f6nde hareket ediyor. Ancak \u015fimdi bu ters ili\u015fki her zamankinden daha a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 durumda.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin ve dolar z\u0131t y\u00f6nlere gidiyor<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle, BTC ile USD aras\u0131ndaki haftal\u0131k korelasyon katsay\u0131s\u0131, 3 Temmuz\u2019da sona eren haftada s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda 0,77\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu 17 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi. Bu arada, TradingView verilerine g\u00f6re, Bitcoin\u2019in teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Nasdaq Composite ile korelasyonu ayn\u0131 haftal\u0131k seansta s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde 0,78\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\nBTC ve ABD dolar\u0131 korelasyon katsay\u0131s\u0131 \/ Kaynak: TradingView<\/figure>\n
Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong>\u2019dan takip etti\u011finiz \u00fczere Fed, y\u00fckselen enflasyonu frenlemek i\u00e7in g\u00f6sterge faizleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu art\u0131r\u0131mlar, resesyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n aras\u0131nda bu piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131ldan bug\u00fcne g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi performans da bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rne\u011fin Bitcoin, 2022\u2019de %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kay\u0131p ya\u015farken, Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki getirileri eksi %29,72 civar\u0131nda. \u00d6te yandan USD, ABD dolar\u0131 endeksi (DXY) Ocak 2003\u2019\u00fcn en y\u00fcksek seviyesi 105,78 civar\u0131nda gezinerek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\nBTC vs. DXY vs. NDAQ haftal\u0131k fiyat grafi\u011fi \/ Kaynak: TradingView<\/figure>\n
Dolar daha da y\u00fckselir mi?<\/b><\/p>\n
Fed, traderlar\u0131n \u00f6n u\u00e7 t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini nas\u0131l fiyatland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00f6sterge faizleri art\u0131rmaya mecbur g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle, trader\u2019lar Fed\u2019in Temmuz ay\u0131nda oranlar\u0131 75 baz puan (bps) art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar. Ayr\u0131ca, Fed\u2019in mevcut %1,25-%1,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizleri %3,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karmayaca\u011f\u0131na da bahse giriyorlar.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
Bununla birlikte, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar %3,4\u2019e bir bask\u0131n\u0131n, Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 geri \u00e7evirmesine neden olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Ayr\u0131ca bunun, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi gibi, gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirime yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\nFed\u2019in faiz oran\u0131 hedefindeki de\u011fi\u015fiklikler \/ Kaynak: TradingView<\/figure>\n
JPMorgan taraf\u0131ndan ankete kat\u0131lan Wall Street analistlerine g\u00f6re, enflasyon verileri so\u011fursa erken bir faiz indiriminin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. B\u00f6ylece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolara olan i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 muhtemel. Dikkat \u00e7ekici bir \u015fekilde, yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019\u0131 dolar\u0131n mevcut fiyat seviyelerinde ( 105 civar\u0131nda) 2022\u2019yi bitirece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, %36\u2019l\u0131k bir ba\u015fka bahis, dolar\u0131n y\u0131l kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00f6nce d\u00fczelece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Neuberger Berman\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel para birimi ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ugo Lancioni, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz, do\u011frusal bir d\u00fcnya de\u011fildir. Bir noktada i\u015fler tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. \u015eahsen bir noktada dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa alma e\u011filimim var.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
Bitcoin 2022\u2019de dibe vuracak m\u0131?<\/b><\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, dolar\u0131n 2022\u2019nin geri kalan\u0131nda rallisine devam etme yetene\u011finin, klasik bir teknik model taraf\u0131ndan engellenmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130lk olarak ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z piyasa analisti Agres taraf\u0131ndan tespit edilen DXY\u2019nin \u00e7ift tepe modeli bunu g\u00f6steriyor. Model, arka arkaya iki en y\u00fcksek seviyesi ve 103,81 ortak destek seviyesi nedeniyle k\u0131smen do\u011fruland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik analizin bir kural\u0131 olarak, fiyat deste\u011fin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi gibi yap\u0131n\u0131n maksimum y\u00fcksekli\u011fi kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, \u00e7ift tepe modelinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\nDXY g\u00fcnl\u00fck fiyat grafi\u011fi \/ Kaynak: TradingView<\/figure>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, DXY\u2019nin \u00e7ifte en y\u00fcksek k\u00e2r hedefi, 3 Temmuz fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6re %3,25\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 101,8\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Agres, \u201cDolar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede sat\u0131n al\u0131nd\u0131 \u200b\u200bve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u201d diyor. Buradan hareketle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki seanslardaki d\u00fczeltmesinin hisse senetlerine ve kripto para birimlerine fayda sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini de s\u00f6zlerine ekliyor:<\/p>\n
Sonunda, \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcnmek (DXY) sert bir \u015fekilde devrilecek. Bir erime senaryosu i\u00e7in m\u00fckemmel bir izdihamda. Dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, hisse senetleri ve kripto rallisi ba\u015flar.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, Bitcoin\u2019in \u2018MVRV-Z Skoru\u2019 da tarihsel olarak keskin, uzun vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden \u00f6nce gelen bir aral\u0131\u011fa d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu on-chain g\u00f6sterge, Bitcoin\u2019in 2022\u2019de 15.600 dolar civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasa uzmanlar\u0131, dolar rallisinin 2022\u2019nin sonuna kadar durmas\u0131n\u0131 veya d\u00fczeltilmesini bekliyor. Bitcoin (BTC), 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri ABD …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":36298,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[12,3550],"class_list":["post-36297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-dxy"],"yoast_head":"\n
Bitcoin-Dolar Ters Korelasyon 17 Ay\u0131n Zirvesinde! S\u0131rada Ne Var? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/bitcoin-dolar-ters-korelasyon-17-ayin-zirvesinde-sirada-ne-var\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin-Dolar Ters Korelasyon 17 Ay\u0131n Zirvesinde! S\u0131rada Ne Var?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Piyasa uzmanlar\u0131, dolar rallisinin 2022\u2019nin sonuna kadar durmas\u0131n\u0131 veya d\u00fczeltilmesini bekliyor. 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S\u0131rada Ne Var? - Coin M\u00fchendisi","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/bitcoin-dolar-ters-korelasyon-17-ayin-zirvesinde-sirada-ne-var\/","og_locale":"tr_TR","og_type":"article","og_title":"Bitcoin-Dolar Ters Korelasyon 17 Ay\u0131n Zirvesinde! S\u0131rada Ne Var?","og_description":"Piyasa uzmanlar\u0131, dolar rallisinin 2022\u2019nin sonuna kadar durmas\u0131n\u0131 veya d\u00fczeltilmesini bekliyor. 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![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/coinmuhendisi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Grafik-1-1.webp?resize=1024%2C507&ssl=1\")
BTC ve ABD dolar\u0131 korelasyon katsay\u0131s\u0131 \/ Kaynak: TradingView<\/figure>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/coinmuhendisi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Grafik-2.webp?resize=1024%2C507&ssl=1\")
BTC vs. DXY vs. NDAQ haftal\u0131k fiyat grafi\u011fi \/ Kaynak: TradingView<\/figure>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/coinmuhendisi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Grafik-3.webp?resize=1024%2C638&ssl=1\")
Fed\u2019in faiz oran\u0131 hedefindeki de\u011fi\u015fiklikler \/ Kaynak: TradingView<\/figure>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/coinmuhendisi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/bitcon-btc.jpg?resize=1024%2C580&ssl=1\")
<\/figure>\n![](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/coinmuhendisi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Grafik-4.webp?resize=1024%2C507&ssl=1\")
DXY g\u00fcnl\u00fck fiyat grafi\u011fi \/ Kaynak: TradingView<\/figure>\n