Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi, (BETAM) Prof. Dr. Ozan Bak\u0131\u015f ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma G\u00f6revlisi U\u011furcan Acar taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan “\u0130kinci \u00c7eyrekte de Y\u00fcksek B\u00fcy\u00fcme” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Tahminler: Haziran 2022 notunu yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, GSYH tahmininde kullan\u0131lan mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fkenlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne olan talep ve elektrik t\u00fcketiminde y\u00fczde 4 azal\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlerken, yat\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerinin pozitif oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemi ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 12,2, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc talebinde ise y\u00fczde 8,2 art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/b><\/p>\n
Kesinle\u015fen Ocak, \u015eubat ve Mart ay\u0131 GSYH \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri ile yap\u0131lan hesaplamalara g\u00f6re 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine oranla GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 5,6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verilerle yap\u0131lan hesaplamalarla ise 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 0,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n
IMF T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 2,7\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve OECD ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 2,3 ve y\u00fczde 3,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici kredileri azald\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n
2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla \u00d6TV\u2019de y\u00fczde 10\u2019u a\u015fan bir art\u0131\u015f, kredilerde ise y\u00fczde 7 civar\u0131nda bir azal\u0131\u015f tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n
Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda konut kredileri, t\u00fcketici kredileri ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda d\u00f6rtte biri a\u015fan azalmalar hesapland\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretiminde ise art\u0131\u015flar s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n
Kamu harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f<\/b><\/p>\n
Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriye g\u00f6re, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10,7 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda kamunun yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 42 gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f ticarette g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olumlu<\/b><\/p>\n
2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ihracatta y\u00fczde 8,4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, ithalatta ise y\u00fczde 2,9 azal\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrek d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi aleyhine olan geli\u015fmelerin bu \u00e7eyrekte lehte olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine k\u0131yasla bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 14,2 artmas\u0131n\u0131, ithalat\u0131n ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi lehine y\u00fczde 1,4 azalma tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi, (BETAM) Prof. Dr. Ozan Bak\u0131\u015f ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rma G\u00f6revlisi U\u011furcan Acar taraf\u0131ndan …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":34927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[775],"class_list":["post-34926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoin","tag-tahmin"],"yoast_head":"\n