{"id":33758,"date":"2022-06-24T12:20:08","date_gmt":"2022-06-24T09:20:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=33758"},"modified":"2022-06-24T12:20:08","modified_gmt":"2022-06-24T09:20:08","slug":"dunyaca-unlu-ekonomistler-altini-o-rakamlarda-goreceksiniz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/dunyaca-unlu-ekonomistler-altini-o-rakamlarda-goreceksiniz\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnyaca \u00dcnl\u00fc Ekonomistler: Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131 O Rakamlarda G\u00f6receksiniz!"},"content":{"rendered":"
Milyarder yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Seth Klarman, belirsizlik piyasaya hakim olmaya devam ederken bir miktar alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n de\u011ferini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca Standard Chartered ekonomistleri alt\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket bekliyor. Bunun yan\u0131nda Commerzbank analistleri ise de\u011ferli metalde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u201cFaizler, daha y\u00fckse\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131nda sistemi sarsacak\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Seth Klarman, Harvard Business School\u2019da yak\u0131n zamanda bir r\u00f6portaj verdi. Klarman, ABD ekonomisinin daha yava\u015f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve y\u00fckselen enflasyondan olu\u015fan zorlu bir ortamla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu konusunda uyar\u0131yor. Mevcut sat\u0131\u015fla bile, hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n hala \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ekliyor. Yorumlar, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn bu y\u0131l kabaca %23 d\u00fc\u015ferek ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 b\u00f6lgesine girmesiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
Klarman, faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam edece\u011fini de ifade ediyor. Bunun yan\u0131nda, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 35 y\u0131ld\u0131r bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca, mevcut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n daha iyi getiri elde etmek amac\u0131yla daha fazla risk almak zorunda kalan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Klarman, Harvard Business School r\u00f6portaj\u0131nda, \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n
Faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Uzun s\u00fcredir yapay olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in daha da y\u00fckselmeleri laz\u0131m. Bence baz\u0131 insanlar\u0131 ve hatta sistemi daha y\u00fckse\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131nda sarsacak.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
\u201cFed, bir noktada \u00e7\u0131ld\u0131racak\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Klarman, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklese de, Federal Rezerv\u2019in agresif hareketinde bir s\u0131n\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu konuya ili\u015fkin olarak \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
Piyasa sadece bu y\u0131l be\u015f veya alt\u0131 art\u0131\u015f fiyatlad\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi zor olan \u015fey, Fed\u2019in yava\u015flayan bir ekonomide ve \u00e7\u00f6kmekte olan bir finans piyasas\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Benim tahminim, bir noktada \u00e7\u0131ld\u0131racaklar.<\/p>\n
\u201cDolar\u0131n rezerv kimli\u011finin yak\u0131n zamanda de\u011fi\u015fmesi pek olas\u0131 de\u011fil\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Klarman ayr\u0131ca ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bask\u0131n rezerv para birimi olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ise \u015fu \u015fekilde izah ediyor:<\/p>\n
ABD, dolar\u0131n \u00e7ok uzun bir s\u00fcredir d\u00fcnyan\u0131n rezerv para birimi olmas\u0131 gibi muazzam bir avantaja sahip. Yak\u0131n zamanda de\u011fi\u015fmesi pek olas\u0131 de\u011fil. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n \u00c7in para birimini kabul etti\u011fini hayal etmek zor. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n kripto para birimini kabul etti\u011fini hayal etmek zor.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
\u201c\u0130htiyatl\u0131l\u0131k gere\u011fi portf\u00f6yde biraz alt\u0131n tutmak iyidir\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen faiz oranlar\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczgarlar. Bununla birlikte Klarman, hala de\u011ferli metalin hayran\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bunun bir de\u011fer deposu ve g\u00fcvenli liman olarak kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydediyor. Milyarder yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini \u015fu \u015fekilde ifade ediyor:<\/p>\n
Bence alt\u0131n bir krizde de\u011ferlidir. D\u00fcnya cehenneme d\u00f6nerse, sava\u015f geni\u015fler ve k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse, insanlar \u2018Art\u0131k bir \u015feyin de\u011ferinin ne oldu\u011funu nereden bileyim?\u2019 diyecek. Biraz alt\u0131n\u0131m oldu\u011fundan emin olaca\u011f\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7aresizlik an\u0131nda param olmamas\u0131n\u0131 istemiyorum. Asla o noktaya gelmeyebilir. Ancak portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fczden biraz alt\u0131n bulundurman\u0131n ihtiyatl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong>\u2019dan takip etti\u011finiz \u00fczere alt\u0131n, \u015fu ana kadar 1.775-1.800 dolar aras\u0131nda kilit deste\u011fi tuttu. Standard Chartered raporundaki stratejistlere g\u00f6re, sar\u0131 metalin, jeopolitik gerilimlerin artmas\u0131 \u00fczerine 1.895 dolarl\u0131k direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Stratejistler, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik belirsizlik ve artan politika hatalar\u0131 endi\u015feleri muhtemelen destekleyici olmaya devam edecek. Her iki endi\u015feye ili\u015fkin herhangi bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, \u00f6zellikle USD g\u00fcc\u00fc yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flarsa alt\u0131n\u0131n 1.875-1.895 dolar direncinin \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, 1.775 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1.675 dolara do\u011fru sat\u0131\u015f yapma riskini do\u011furur.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
\u201cAlt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 1.825 dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yine de Commerzbank ekonomistleri sar\u0131 metalin 1.800 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ekonomistler, \u201cAlt\u0131n, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel emtialar\u0131n u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn arkas\u0131nda resesyon korkular\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, son haftalarda g\u00fcvenli liman olma \u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte defalarca ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu,\u201d diyor. Bununla birlikte, \u015fu yorumla devam ediyorlar:<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde, 1.800 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerindeki fiyatlarda al\u0131m ilgisi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu da alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bu e\u015fi\u011fin alt\u0131na herhangi bir kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesini engelledi. Bu sefer de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 ayn\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Milyarder yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Seth Klarman, belirsizlik piyasaya hakim olmaya devam ederken bir miktar alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n de\u011ferini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":33759,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7],"tags":[317],"class_list":["post-33758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coin","category-nft","tag-para"],"yoast_head":"\n
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