{"id":33401,"date":"2022-06-23T08:30:10","date_gmt":"2022-06-23T05:30:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=33401"},"modified":"2022-06-23T08:30:10","modified_gmt":"2022-06-23T05:30:10","slug":"resesyon-nedir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/resesyon-nedir\/","title":{"rendered":"Resesyon Nedir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Resesyon, belirlenmi\u015f bir b\u00f6lgedeki genel ekonomik aktivitede \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe at\u0131fta bulunan makroekonomik bir terimdir.<\/p>\n

Resesyon, ekonomik aktivitede aylar hatta y\u0131llar s\u00fcren \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Uzmanlar, bir \u00fclke ekonomisi olumsuz gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSY\u0130H), artan i\u015fsizlik seviyeleri, d\u00fc\u015fen perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve uzun bir s\u00fcre boyunca daralan gelir ve \u00fcretim \u00f6nlemleri ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda durgunluk ilan eder. Resesyonlar, i\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir par\u00e7as\u0131 veya bir ulusun ekonomisinde meydana gelen d\u00fczenli geni\u015fleme ve daralma kadans\u0131 olarak kabul edilir.<\/p>\n

Resesyon Nedir?<\/b><\/p>\n

Resesyon, birka\u00e7 ay s\u00fcren bir ekonominin tamam\u0131nda ekonomik performans\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemdir. \u0130\u015fletmeler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkilileri, resesyonlar\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeye veya onaylamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilecek \u00e7e\u015fitli ekonomik g\u00f6stergeleri takip ediyor. Resesyonlar\u0131n nas\u0131l ve neden meydana geldi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli ekonomik teoriler geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Sanayi \u00fcretimi, istihdam, reel gelir ve toptan-perakende ticarette resesyon g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Resesyonun \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma tan\u0131m\u0131, bir \u00fclkenin gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131yla (GSY\u0130H) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k iki \u00e7eyrek negatif ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmedir.<\/p>\n

Resesyonlar\u0131 Anlamak<\/b><\/p>\n

Sanayi Devrimi\u2019nden bu yana, \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclkede uzun vadeli makroekonomik e\u011filim ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmu\u015ftur. Bununla birlikte, bu uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filimlerine d\u00f6nmeden \u00f6nce, alt\u0131 aydan birka\u00e7 y\u0131la kadar olan zaman dilimlerinde, ana makroekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin yava\u015flamalar veya hatta tamamen d\u00fc\u015fen performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalar olmu\u015ftur. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler resesyon olarak bilinir.<\/p>\n

Resesyon, i\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn naho\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen normal bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Resesyonlar, bir dizi ticari ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k ve genellikle banka ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131, \u00fcretimde yava\u015f veya olumsuz b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve artan i\u015fsizlik ile karakterize edilir. Resesyonlar\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu ekonomik ac\u0131, ge\u00e7ici olsa da, bir ekonomiyi de\u011fi\u015ftiren b\u00fcy\u00fck etkilere sahip olabilir. Bu, k\u0131r\u0131lgan veya eskimi\u015f firmalar, end\u00fcstriler veya teknolojilerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 ve ortadan kaybolmas\u0131 nedeniyle ekonomideki yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fiklikler nedeniyle meydana gelebilir; i\u015fletmeler i\u00e7in kurallar\u0131 kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla yeniden yazabilen h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve para otoritelerinin dramatik politika tepkileri; ya da yayg\u0131n i\u015fsizlik ve ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131dan kaynaklanan sosyal ve politik karga\u015fa.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, bir resesyon s\u0131ras\u0131nda sahip olunabilecek en iyi stratejilerden biri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck borcu, iyi nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 olan \u015firketlere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmakt\u0131r. Tersine, y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel veya spek\u00fclatif \u015firketlerden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n.<\/p>\n

Resesyon Tahminleri ve G\u00f6stergeleri<\/b><\/p>\n

Bir durgunlu\u011fun nas\u0131l ve ne zaman olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmenin tek bir yolu yoktur. Ekonomistler, art arda iki \u00e7eyrek GSY\u0130H d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, bir durgunlu\u011fun yak\u0131n olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya halihaz\u0131rda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fip ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fini belirlemek i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctleri de\u011ferlendiriyor. Pek \u00e7ok iktisat\u00e7\u0131ya g\u00f6re, birlikte ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131klar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir durgunlu\u011fa i\u015faret edebilecek genel kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f baz\u0131 tahminciler var.<\/p>\n

Birincisi, makroekonomik e\u011filimlerde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen kaymalardan \u00f6nce e\u011filimlerinde ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131nda tarihsel olarak de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri g\u00f6steren \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerdir. Bunlar, bir resesyon konusunda \u00f6nceden uyar\u0131 verebildikleri i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ve ticari karar al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in kritik \u00f6neme sahiptir. \u0130kincisi, konut istatistikleri ve sermaye mallar\u0131 yeni sipari\u015f verileri gibi ekonominin kilit sekt\u00f6rlerini temsil eden \u00e7e\u015fitli devlet kurumlar\u0131ndan resmi olarak yay\u0131nlanan veri serileridir. Bu verilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, k\u0131smen, nihayetinde bir durgunlu\u011fun ne zaman ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lacak olan GSY\u0130H bile\u015fenlerini hesaplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmalar\u0131 nedeniyle, k\u0131smen resesyonun ba\u015flamas\u0131yla e\u015fzamanl\u0131 olarak hareket edebilir veya yol a\u00e7abilir. Sonuncusu, bir ekonominin ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra durgunlu\u011fa ge\u00e7i\u015fini teyit etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilecek, i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f gibi gecikmeli g\u00f6stergelerdir.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Resesyonlar\u0131n Sebebi Nedir?<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00c7ok say\u0131da ekonomik teori, ekonominin neden ve nas\u0131l uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filiminden d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini ve ge\u00e7ici bir resesyon d\u00f6nemine girebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu teoriler, ger\u00e7ek ekonomik fakt\u00f6rlere, finansal fakt\u00f6rlere veya psikolojik fakt\u00f6rlere dayal\u0131 olarak geni\u015f bir \u015fekilde kategorize edilebilir ve bunlar aras\u0131ndaki bo\u015fluklar\u0131 kapatan baz\u0131 teoriler vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Baz\u0131 ekonomistler, end\u00fcstrilerdeki ger\u00e7ek de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin ve yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimlerin, ekonomik resesyonlar\u0131n ne zaman ve nas\u0131l meydana geldi\u011fini en iyi \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, jeopolitik bir kriz nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani, s\u00fcrekli bir art\u0131\u015f, ayn\u0131 anda bir\u00e7ok end\u00fcstride maliyetleri art\u0131rabilir veya devrim niteli\u011findeki yeni bir teknoloji, her iki durumda da yayg\u0131n bir durgunlu\u011fu tetikleyerek t\u00fcm end\u00fcstrileri h\u0131zla eski haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n

COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bunun sonucunda 2020\u2019de ekonomideki halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kilitlenmeleri, bir resesyonu h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek ekonomik \u015fok t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn bir \u00f6rne\u011fidir. Ayr\u0131ca, di\u011fer temel ekonomik e\u011filimlerin bir resesyona do\u011fru yol almakta oldu\u011fu ve bir ekonomik \u015fokun devrilme noktas\u0131n\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe do\u011fru tetikledi\u011fi bir durum da olabilir.<\/p>\n

Baz\u0131 teoriler, resesyonu finansal fakt\u00f6rlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klar. Bunlar genellikle ya resesyondan \u00f6nceki iyi ekonomik zamanlarda kredi ve finansal riskin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 geni\u015flemesine ya da resesyonun ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda para ve kredinin daralmas\u0131na veya her ikisine de odaklan\u0131r. Resesyonlar\u0131 para arz\u0131ndaki yetersiz b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011flayan parasalc\u0131l\u0131k, bu t\u00fcr teoriye iyi bir \u00f6rnektir. Avusturya \u0130\u015f D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc Teorisi, kredi, faiz oranlar\u0131, piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim planlar\u0131n\u0131n zaman ufku ve belirli \u00fcretken sermaye mallar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin yap\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 ke\u015ffederek reel ve parasal fakt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumu kapat\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Psikoloji temelli resesyon teorileri, resesyonlar\u0131n neden meydana geldi\u011fini ve hatta devam etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in \u00f6nceki patlama zaman\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131na veya resesyon ortam\u0131n\u0131n derin karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakma e\u011filimindedir. Keynesyen ekonomi, herhangi bir nedenle bir resesyon ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, piyasa karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayal\u0131 olarak azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n kendi kendini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren bir kehaneti haline gelebilece\u011fini ve bunun daha sonra azalan gelirlere yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini belirtti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu kategoriye girer. Minskyit teorileri, resesyonlar\u0131n nedenini, finansal piyasalar\u0131n spek\u00fclatif co\u015fkusunda ve psikolojik ve finansal fakt\u00f6rlerin bir araya gelmesiyle ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak patlayan borca \u200b\u200bdayal\u0131 finansal balonlar\u0131n olu\u015fumunda arar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Resesyon, belirlenmi\u015f bir b\u00f6lgedeki genel ekonomik aktivitede \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe at\u0131fta bulunan makroekonomik bir terimdir. Resesyon, ekonomik …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":33402,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1431,2451],"class_list":["post-33401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsalar","tag-neden","tag-resesyon"],"yoast_head":"\nResesyon Nedir? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/resesyon-nedir\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Resesyon Nedir?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Resesyon, belirlenmi\u015f bir b\u00f6lgedeki genel ekonomik aktivitede \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe at\u0131fta bulunan makroekonomik bir terimdir. 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