{"id":32460,"date":"2022-06-19T18:40:09","date_gmt":"2022-06-19T15:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=32460"},"modified":"2022-06-19T18:40:09","modified_gmt":"2022-06-19T15:40:09","slug":"profesyonel-analistler-altin-haftaya-bu-seviyelere-dusebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/profesyonel-analistler-altin-haftaya-bu-seviyelere-dusebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Profesyonel Analistler: Alt\u0131n Haftaya Bu Seviyelere D\u00fc\u015febilir!"},"content":{"rendered":"
Federal Rezerv, ge\u00e7en hafta 75 baz puanl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Buna ilaveten bir\u00e7ok piyasada b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalar oldu. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n, esnekli\u011fi ve istikrar\u0131yla bu hafta \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Ancak analistler, k\u0131sa vadede alt\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir ralli g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorlar. Dahas\u0131 1.800 dolara geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bile d\u0131\u015flam\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n
Fed, 75 baz puan ile 1994\u2019ten bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Ancak alt\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in bu karar\u0131na tepkisi \u00e7ok cesaret verici oldu. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, Temmuz ay\u0131nda 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Bu ba\u011flamda, s\u00f6zde \u2018yumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u2018in art\u0131k emtia fiyatlar\u0131 gibi d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rlere daha fazla ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
Bilgileri sindirdikten sonra borsa keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Alt\u0131n ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 40 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Ancak, A\u011fustos Comex alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,44 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1.841,70 dolara gerilemesiyle ralli k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc. TD Securities k\u00fcresel emtia stratejisi ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bart Melek, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n mevcut g\u00f6receli m\u00fckemmel performans\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc genellikle Fed\u2019in politika oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ve reel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 dikkatle izliyor. Ve piyasa, y\u0131l sonu Fed Fonlar\u0131 beklentisini May\u0131s ortas\u0131ndaki %2,7\u2019den \u015fimdi %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, ola\u011fan itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k reel faiz, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 50 baz puan art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. Reel faiz %0,69\u2019a ula\u015farak, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 180 baz puan artt\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
Everett Millman: Alt\u0131n bu karga\u015fan\u0131n ortas\u0131nda bile i\u015fini yap\u0131yor<\/b><\/p>\n
Bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z di\u011fer piyasalar, hatta ABD dolar\u0131 gibi baz\u0131 g\u00fcvenli limanlar bile olduk\u00e7a oynak. Alt\u0131n\u0131n volatilitesi ise nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu, di\u011fer varl\u0131klardaki karga\u015fan\u0131n ortas\u0131nda bile i\u015fini yapan g\u00fcc\u00fcn ve alt\u0131n\u0131n bir i\u015faretidir.<\/p>\n
\u201cBu zamana kadar alt\u0131n, aral\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong>\u2019dan takip etti\u011finiz \u00fczere y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne alt\u0131n, %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyrediyor. Yine de Millman, bu esnekli\u011fin bir rallinin hemen k\u00f6\u015fede oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Analist, konuya ili\u015fkin olarak \u015fu yorumu yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n
G\u00fczel bir alt\u0131n rallisi g\u00f6rd\u00fck ve sonra geri \u00e7ekildik. Bunun Temmuz ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar devam etmesini bekliyorum. Fed\u2019in ba\u015fka bir b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131p yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenene kadar alt\u0131n aral\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Yani yatay trade\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalacak. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc olmas\u0131 gerekiyordu. Ancak enflasyon bu kadar y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funda, Fed\u2019in reel faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n n\u00f6tr oldu\u011fu noktaya gelmesi i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerekecektir. Alt\u0131n\u0131n umursad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bu. Belki gelecek y\u0131l oraya ula\u015f\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
\u201cArtan durgunluk riskinin ek alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Everett Millman, yaz boyunca alt\u0131n\u0131 1.800 dolar ile 1.900 dolar aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Analist, 1.840 dolar\u0131n ise destekten dirence do\u011fru bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 oldu\u011funu kaydediyor. Millman, devamla \u015fu hususlara dikkat \u00e7ekiyor:<\/p>\n
Enflasyon alt\u0131n\u0131n ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerinden biri olmaya devam ediyor. Bununla birlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar di\u011fer varl\u0131klardaki kay\u0131plardan korkmaya devam ederse, artan durgunluk riskinin ek alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
\u201cFed yak\u0131n zamanda fikrini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyecek\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Bart Melek, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u2018muhte\u015fem bir i\u015f \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ancak bu, de\u011ferli metalin burada d\u00fczelmedi\u011fi ve 1.800 dolara geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Analist, \u201cBu bir bozgun de\u011fil, m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme olacak\u201d diyor. Melek\u2019in projeksiyonunun ard\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce, ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n ilk i\u015faretinde agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7meyecek olan \u0131srarc\u0131 bir Fed. Analist, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fu \u015fekilde izah ediyor:<\/p>\n
\u015e\u00fcphem, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda fikrini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyonist g\u00fc\u00e7ler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha agresif art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok muhtemel. Bu da alt\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen May\u0131s ay\u0131n\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine geri g\u00f6nderecek.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
\u201cAlt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 1.800 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n
Analiste g\u00f6re, bu da yak\u0131n vadede 1.824-1.808 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Melek, alt\u0131n\u0131n, hala y\u0131l sonuna kadar 1.800 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesini olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Analist, \u015fu yorumu yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in ilk sorun belirtisinde pul d\u00f6k\u00fclece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok erken. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir durumda olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Ancak Eyl\u00fcl veya Ekim\u2019e kadar enflasyonda \u00f6nemli bir hareket g\u00f6rmeyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
Gelecek hafta izlenecek veriler<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftan\u0131n t\u00fcm makro verileri aras\u0131nda konut, yak\u0131ndan takip edilmesi gereken hayati bir unsur olacak. ING\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 ba\u015f ekonomisti James Knightley, izlenmesi gereken kilit noktan\u0131n Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faizlerinin konut piyasas\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere ekonomi \u00fczerindeki etkisi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ekonomist, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n
Fed enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir mideye sahip oldu\u011funa dair sinyal verdi. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklememiz gerekiyor. Ancak, k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00f6lgelere giderek daha h\u0131zl\u0131 girersek, sert bir ini\u015f ve potansiyel bir resesyon riski daha fazla. Konut piyasas\u0131, savunmas\u0131z durumda.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenecek ba\u015fka bir olay, Powell\u2019\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Senato Bankac\u0131l\u0131k, Konut ve Kentsel \u0130\u015fler Komitesi ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Temsilciler Meclisi Finansal Hizmetler Komitesi \u00f6n\u00fcndeki ifadesi olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Federal Rezerv, ge\u00e7en hafta 75 baz puanl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Buna ilaveten bir\u00e7ok piyasada b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalar oldu. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":32461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7],"tags":[413],"class_list":["post-32460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coin","category-nft","tag-fed"],"yoast_head":"\n
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