{"id":31633,"date":"2022-06-16T14:20:08","date_gmt":"2022-06-16T11:20:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=31633"},"modified":"2022-06-16T14:20:08","modified_gmt":"2022-06-16T11:20:08","slug":"wall-streette-resesyon-beklentileri-yukseliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wall-streette-resesyon-beklentileri-yukseliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street’te resesyon beklentileri y\u00fckseliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD’de resesyon endi\u015feleri Fed’in 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Wall Street kurumlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin ekonomik aktiviteye olumsuz etkisi olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

Wells Fargo 2023 ortalar\u0131nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir resesyon ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Banka enflasyonun t\u00fcketicilerin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed’in enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu durumun ekonomiyi resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

Moody’s Analytics’ten gelen yorumlar da \u00fclkede yumu\u015fak ini\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Bloomberg’in haberine g\u00f6re Moody’s Analytics Para Politikas\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Ryan Sweet Fed’in enflasyonu alt edinceye kadar faizleri art\u0131rmaya devam edece\u011fini, bu durumun ekonomiye de olumsuz etkisi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Fed, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli politika faizini 75 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 1,50-1,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti. Art\u0131\u015f 1994\u2019ten bu yana tek seferde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen en h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Faiz karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce gelen perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerinden de olumsuz sinyaller gelmi\u015fti. May\u0131s’ta ABD\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar 5 ay sonra ilk defa ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum enflasyondaki y\u00fckseli\u015fle t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. <\/p>\n

Sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 1994’te ekonomide nas\u0131l etki yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131?<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in daha \u00f6nce 75 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 1994 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 enflasyonun \u00fcst\u00fcnde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak ekonomide yumu\u015fak bir ini\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeyi ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu art\u0131\u015f o d\u00f6nem Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olan Alan Greenspan\u2019in ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in 1994-1995 y\u0131llar\u0131nda 13 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te faizlerin y\u00fczde 3\u2019ten 6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015f serisinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n

1994 y\u0131l\u0131nda hisseler sadece bir y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fczde 1,2 gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f ve Fed bir resesyon ya\u015fanmas\u0131na engel olmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 1995 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise hisseler y\u00fczde 34\u2019l\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

CFRA Ara\u015ft\u0131rma\u2019n\u0131n verilerine g\u00f6re 1994 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan 75 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hisse senetleri ufak bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ve 1995 \u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde ise toparlanmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u201cFed 2022\u2019de benzeri bir yumu\u015fak ini\u015fi ba\u015farabilecek mi? Borsa \u015fimdiden y\u00fczde 22 de\u011fer kaybetti ve Fed 1994\u2019te enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcnde bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma izlerken bug\u00fcn yakalamak i\u00e7in \u00e7aba sarf ediyor\u201d diyen InvesTech Researc and Stack Financial Management Ba\u015fkan\u0131 James Stack, \u201cBug\u00fcn ba\u015far\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d ile 1994-95 d\u00f6nemi aras\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck fark Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc derecede geli\u015fmelerin gerisinde kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Fed ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon emareleriyle faizleri art\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekirken bunun yerine 0 faizle ve sonu gelmeyen tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131yla parasal geni\u015flemeye devam etti\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

CFRA Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Stratejisti Sam Stovall ise 1994 y\u0131l\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon oran\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha fazla art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, \u201cBu kez ise enflasyon faizlerden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor dolay\u0131s\u0131yla mevcut durum Fed\u2019in \u00e7ok daha agresif davranmas\u0131 gereken tamamen farkl\u0131 biri durum\u201d yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD’de resesyon endi\u015feleri Fed’in 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Wall Street kurumlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":31634,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[413],"class_list":["post-31633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoin","tag-fed"],"yoast_head":"\nWall Street'te resesyon beklentileri y\u00fckseliyor - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wall-streette-resesyon-beklentileri-yukseliyor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wall Street'te resesyon beklentileri y\u00fckseliyor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ABD'de resesyon endi\u015feleri Fed'in 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 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