{"id":31292,"date":"2022-06-15T08:10:07","date_gmt":"2022-06-15T05:10:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=31292"},"modified":"2022-06-15T08:10:07","modified_gmt":"2022-06-15T05:10:07","slug":"imf-eski-icra-direktoru-rakesh-mohan-bloomberg-htye-konustu-enflasyona-mudahalede-gec-kalindi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/imf-eski-icra-direktoru-rakesh-mohan-bloomberg-htye-konustu-enflasyona-mudahalede-gec-kalindi\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF eski \u0130cra Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Rakesh Mohan Bloomberg HT’ye konu\u015ftu: Enflasyona m\u00fcdahalede ge\u00e7 kal\u0131nd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ZEYNEP BAYAR<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya, salg\u0131n\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu ekonomik \u015fokun \u00fcstesinden hen\u00fcz gelememi\u015fken, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u0131da ve enerji krizinin tam ortas\u0131nda yeni bir s\u0131nav veriyor. Enflasyonun ABD\u2019de ve bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesinde son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 ak\u0131llara, \u201cEnflasyon ne zaman d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ecek? sorusunu getiriyor.<\/p>\n

IMF eski \u0130cra Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc ve Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 eski Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Rakesh Mohan, k\u00fcresel enflasyonun nedenleri ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalar\u0131n etkinli\u011fi hakk\u0131nda Bloomberg HT\u2019nin sorular\u0131n\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Enflasyonu tetikleyen temel fakt\u00f6rler<\/b><\/p>\n

Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda uygulanan kapanmalar sonucunda, fabrikalar\u0131n ve limanlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 nihai mal \u00fcretiminde sorunlar\u0131n ya\u015fanmas\u0131na ve fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine sebep oldu. Di\u011fer taraftan, son y\u0131llarda ara mallar\u0131n en uygun fiyattan veren \u00fclkelerden temin edilmesi ve \u00fcr\u00fcn par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131n ucuz i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc sa\u011flayan \u00fclkelerde birle\u015ftirilmesi tedarik zincirindeki yap\u0131y\u0131 daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirdi.<\/p>\n

Buna bir \u00f6rnek olarak, \u201cJust in Time (JIT)\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan maliyet ve stok kontrol sistemini g\u00f6sterebiliriz. Tam zaman\u0131nda sat\u0131n alma ve \u00fcretimi gerektiren bu sistem, minimum envanter prensibini benimsemesi sebebiyle pandemi s\u00fcresince otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc olumsuz etkiledi. Ayr\u0131ca, otomobil \u00fcreticilerinin yeterli miktarda \u00e7ip temin edememesi de \u00fcretimde ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Artan talebin de etkisiyle otomobil fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rakesh Mohan, salg\u0131n d\u00f6neminde fabrikalar\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n, konteynerlerde ve yar\u0131 iletkenlerde ya\u015fanan k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fc etkiledi\u011fini, son d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in\u2019deki karantina uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n da tedarik zincirine son darbeyi vurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer taraftan, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u015eubat ay\u0131nda Ukrayna\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f, jeopolitik risklere bir yenisini daha ekledi. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) ham petrol, do\u011falgaz ve kat\u0131 yak\u0131t ithalat\u0131nda Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, AB\u2019nin Kuzey-Ak\u0131m 2 projesini iptal edilmesi enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda sert y\u00fckseli\u015flere neden oldu. Sava\u015f\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkisine de\u011finen Mohan, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal etmesinden \u00f6nce de bir\u00e7ok emtia fiyat\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda<\/b> oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatarak, \u201cSava\u015f sebebiyle \u00e7o\u011fu sekt\u00f6r etkilense de en \u00e7ok zarar\u0131 emtia ithal eden \u00fclkeler g\u00f6rd\u00fc.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Sava\u015f, sadece emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda de\u011fil, ayr\u0131ca g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda da y\u00fckseli\u015fe sebep oldu. Avrupa’n\u0131n ‘tah\u0131l ambar\u0131’ olarak bilinen Ukrayna’n\u0131n Rusya taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fgali bu\u011fday fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 14 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Ukrayna Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Volodimir Zelenskiy, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Odessa limanlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden her ay 10 milyon ton tah\u0131l ihra\u00e7 edebilece\u011fini, ancak 22-25 milyon ton tah\u0131l\u0131n bloke edildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel bu\u011fday arz\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 35’inin hayvan yemi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, yak\u0131n zamanda sadece tah\u0131l \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin de\u011fil, ayr\u0131ca et ve hayvansal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da olumsuz etkilenmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cBir\u00e7ok ekonomistin enflasyon uyar\u0131s\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nmad\u0131\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Mohan, enflasyonu tetikleyen nedenlerin merkez bankalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131nda \u015fu ifadeleri kulland\u0131:<\/p>\n

\u201cBir\u00e7ok ekonomistten gelen uyar\u0131ya ra\u011fmen geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki merkez bankalar\u0131 enflasyonun ciddi bir sorun haline gelebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmedi. Merkez bankalar\u0131 enflasyonun ge\u00e7ici olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden m\u00fcdahalede ge\u00e7 kald\u0131lar. Uzun bir d\u00f6nem boyunca negatif reel faizler vard\u0131. Parasal geni\u015flemeyle sisteme \u00e7ok fazla likidite enjekte ettiler. \u015eimdi Fed, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 ilk olarak sistemdeki likiditeyi azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130kinci olarak da, faizleri art\u0131rd\u0131. \u015eimdi \u015funu soruyoruz: Bu faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yeteri kadar fazla ve h\u0131zl\u0131 olabilecek mi?\u201d<\/p>\n

Mohan, Eski ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Lawrence Summers\u2019\u0131n yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yaz\u0131ya at\u0131fta bulunarak, ABD\u2019deki enflasyonun 1980\u2019lerden farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesi gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel enflasyonun gelece\u011fi hakk\u0131nda beklentiler ne y\u00f6nde?<\/b><\/p>\n

Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan g\u00fc\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ticareti h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Mohan, \u00c7in\u2019in Rusya\u2019y\u0131 desteklemesi sebebiyle sava\u015f sonras\u0131nda ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin daha da hassas hale geldi\u011fini belirtti. Mohan, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi durumunda k\u00fcresel ticarette \u201c\u00e7ok ciddi\u201d sorunlar ya\u015fan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu durumun enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve IMF, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in enflasyon tahminlerini y\u00fckselten kurulu\u015flar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda geldi. IMF, \u201cNisan 2022 D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u201dnda, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler i\u00e7in bu y\u0131lki enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 5,7\u2019e, geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 8,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 David Malpass, enflasyona ili\u015fkin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, “Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke i\u00e7in resesyondan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak zor olacak.” ifadesini kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Stagflasyon riskine vurgu yapan Malpass, enflasyonun uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek kalma riskinin oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde ise, en \u00e7ok enflasyon makas\u0131ndan endi\u015felendi\u011fini belirterek, petrol ambargosu veya gaz tedarikinde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 olmas\u0131 durumunda farkl\u0131 senaryolar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren bir di\u011fer isim de Avrupa Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fekonomisti Beata Javorcik olmu\u015ftu. Sava\u015f\u0131n EBRD b\u00f6lgelerinde ve k\u00fcresel olarak ekonomi \u00fczerinde derin bir etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Javorcik, bu bask\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckesinlikle\u201d artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, ekonomistlerin ve uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n k\u00fcresel enflasyon oranlar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminler inceledi\u011finde, y\u00fcksek enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki k\u0131\u015f boyunca bizlerle olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2023 ve 2024 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in tahmin edilen oranlar\u0131n ise, sava\u015f\u0131n devam etmesi ve enerji arz\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sorunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellenmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ZEYNEP BAYAR D\u00fcnya, salg\u0131n\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu ekonomik \u015fokun \u00fcstesinden hen\u00fcz gelememi\u015fken, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u0131da ve enerji krizinin tam …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":31293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[966],"class_list":["post-31292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoin","tag-ukrayna"],"yoast_head":"\nIMF eski \u0130cra Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Rakesh Mohan Bloomberg HT'ye konu\u015ftu: Enflasyona m\u00fcdahalede ge\u00e7 kal\u0131nd\u0131 - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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