{"id":30306,"date":"2022-06-11T02:20:44","date_gmt":"2022-06-10T23:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=30306"},"modified":"2022-06-11T02:20:44","modified_gmt":"2022-06-10T23:20:44","slug":"uzmanlar-yeni-onlemler-silsilesini-nasil-yorumladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/uzmanlar-yeni-onlemler-silsilesini-nasil-yorumladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Uzmanlar yeni \u00f6nlemler silsilesini nas\u0131l yorumlad\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve cazibesini artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeni birtak\u0131m \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT yay\u0131n\u0131na kat\u0131lan uzmanlar yeni al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemleri ve etkilerini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n

“Avantajlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyim”<\/b><\/p>\n

Piri Reis \u00dcniversitesi Rekt\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Prof. Dr. Erhan Aslano\u011flu ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya swap kanal\u0131n\u0131 ko\u015fullu olarak yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n belli noktalarda cazibe yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fakat etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Aslano\u011flu \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

\u015eu anda D\u00f6viz talebi, d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda ve bu arz\u0131 art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik yani \u00f6demeler dengesinde finansman talebini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekte fayda var. Bu anlamda d\u0131\u015f kaynak kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik eden buradaki maliyetleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren bir ad\u0131m gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna ne kadar b\u00f6yle bir talep oldu\u011funu d\u0131\u015fardan izlemek gerekiyor. Mutlaka belli noktalarda cazibe yaratacakt\u0131r. Genel olarak hem d\u00fcnyadaki finansal hareketlerin daha \u00e7ok g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girmesi hem burada maliyetlerin dolayl\u0131 yoldan \u00e7ok art\u0131yor olmas\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bunun sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 avantajlar\u0131n ne kadar getiri sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda ku\u015fkuluyum. Etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilir kanaatindeyim<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

“Swap limitlerinin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli”<\/b><\/p>\n

G\u00f6khan \u015een yeni paketlere olan ilginin mevcutun \u00fczerinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, swap limitlerindeki esnemenin pakette en \u00e7ok olumlu buldu\u011fu karar oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

Kurda tekrardan yeni bir sarmala girme ihtimali vard\u0131. O y\u00fczden bir \u015fey yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyordu. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da masada olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yan yollar aran\u0131yordu ve art\u0131k ekonomiyi so\u011futmak gerekiyordu.<\/p>\n

Normal \u015fartlarda gelire endeksli senetler ger\u00e7ek hayatta pek rastlanmaz, do\u011fal kaynaklara sahip olan petrole ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015firketler \u00fczerinden bir gelir yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fclkelerin modelidir. 90\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de denenmi\u015fti k\u0131smi olarak bir a\u015final\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z var.<\/p>\n

\u00d6rne\u011fin; Suudi Aramco halka a\u00e7\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ama senin \u015firketin gelirleri belli, zarar etmesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Halk da bundan faydalans\u0131n likit olsun diye yap\u0131labilir bu sebeple \u00e7\u0131kan bir enstr\u00fcmand\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00e7\u0131kma sebebi sermaye piyasalar\u0131 derinle\u015ftirme ve mevcut getirilerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde getiri sa\u011flama gibi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce olabilir ama ger\u00e7ekten gelire mi endeksi olacak yoksa sabit bir \u015fekilde mi gidecek, gelire endeksli olsa y\u0131ll\u0131k 25-35 band\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u015fmas\u0131 istenmiyor.<\/p>\n

TL\u2019deki vatanda\u015flar\u0131n belli bir limiti a\u00e7mayacak bir ara\u00e7ta kalmalar\u0131n\u0131 beklemek de do\u011fru olmaz bunun alt\u0131na getirisinin \u00e7ok fazla kaymamas\u0131 gerekir buna ilgi olur. Mevcuttun \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kar bir par\u00e7a. Mevcut enstr\u00fcmanlara g\u00f6re bir par\u00e7a daha fazla faiz \u00f6deyecekse o zaman benim KKM faizim ne olacak, mevduat faizleri nereye gider ki bence yukar\u0131 gitmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Swap limitlerindeki esneme paket i\u00e7inde en iyi buldu\u011fu maddelerden bir tanesi. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 piyasa hareketi olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc TL\u2019ye ula\u015famamaktan kaynaklan\u0131yor. TL\u2019ye ula\u015famaman\u0131n bir sebebi piyasalardaki likiditenin \u00e7ekilmesi di\u011feri ise d\u00fczenlemeler. Kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 A \u00fclkesinde pozisyon alacaksa bunu genellikle swaplar \u00fczerinden yapar yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 likidite ile bir enstr\u00fcman sat\u0131n al\u0131r. Swap limitleri k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman i\u00e7eriye para gelmesi hemen hemen imkans\u0131z gibi limitlerin a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli buluyorum.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksel: 20 Aral\u0131k gibi bir balyoz etkisi olmayacakt\u0131r<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Reel Capital Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Mete Y\u00fcksel, \u00f6nlemlerle ilgili \u201cPiyasadaki likiditeyi bir miktar azaltaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kura inceden bir etkisi olacakt\u0131r; fakat burada 20 Aral\u0131k’ta ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bir balyoz etkisi olacak bir \u00f6nlem g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz\u201d yorumunda bulundu.<\/p>\n

Hedeflenen durumun TL\u2019yi \u00f6zendirmek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyen Y\u00fcksel \u201cYap\u0131lan d\u00fczenlemeler, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde fonlama maliyetlerini art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Kredi maliyetleri \u00fczerine de ekstra bir art\u0131\u015f getirecektir. \u00d6te yandan, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn esas k\u00e2r\u0131 enflasyon endeksli tahvillerden geliyor. O y\u00fczden \u00e7ok ufak bir negatif etkisi olacakt\u0131r\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksel \u201c\u0130\u015fletme sermayesini yo\u011fun olarak kullanan \u015firketlerin maliyetlerini art\u0131rabilir. Mobilya, t\u00fcketici elektroni\u011fi, beyaz e\u015fya gibi t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in de bir miktar olumsuz olabilecek bir durum yaratabilir\u201d \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Tahsisli swap imkan\u0131n \u00f6nemine dikkat \u00e7eken Y\u00fcksel \u201cYabanc\u0131lar\u0131n pay\u0131 \u015fu anda t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en dibinde y\u00fczde 34,65 oran\u0131nda seyrediyor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, hisse senedi al\u0131rken uygun maliyetli ve k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 hisseden kazanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor, fakat hisseden kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kurdan kaybedebilece\u011fi korkusuyla sat\u0131p \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n

Londra\u2019daki swap imkan\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 kendisini hedge edemez duruma gelmi\u015fti. E\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak dolar ve hisse senedi sat\u0131n al\u0131yor olmas\u0131 laz\u0131m. TL likiditesi Londra\u2019da olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in hedge mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 swap ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131ramad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bunu yapam\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

Yapmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 TL\u2019ye yat\u0131r\u0131m yapacaksa kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda CDS al\u0131yordu. CDS\u2019lerin yukar\u0131ya gitmesindeki bir sebep de buydu. Tahsisli swap imkan\u0131 CDS fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekecek. CDS taraf\u0131nda olumlu bir \u015fey oldu\u011funu ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kendisini hedge etmesini sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle gelecek d\u00f6nemde yabanc\u0131 takas oran\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yazgan: D\u00fczenlemenin, piyasa faizleri \u00fczerinde de yukar\u0131 do\u011fru bir etkisi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Bilgi \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Ege Yazgan Bloomberg HT\u2019ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede ilk hedefin kurun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya gelmesi ya da en az\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 gidi\u015finin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmesi oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

Yazgan “Kur korumal\u0131 mevduat (KKM) uyguland\u0131ktan sonra oldu\u011fu gibi, belli bir s\u00fcre stabilite kazanmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak belli bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enflasyonu da indirmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Kredi \u00fczerindeki d\u00fczenlemelerle ise ithalat talebini biraz daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru indirmek isteniyor. 2011\u2019de de uygulanan makro ihtiyati \u00f6nlemlerde de, cari a\u00e7\u0131kla t\u00fcketici kredileri aras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir korelasyon oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in t\u00fcketici kredileri hedef al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Daha sonras\u0131nda, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bu \u015fekilde kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131namad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemledik\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenlemelerde, \u00f6zellikle bono taraf\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Yazgan \u201dBunun vadesi ve getirisi belli olmadan kur \u00fczerinde bir etkisi olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Bononun getirisine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak orada bir etki g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Yazgan \u201cD\u00fczenlemenin, piyasa faizleri \u00fczerinde de yukar\u0131 do\u011fru bir etkisi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Zaten talebi engellemenizin ba\u015fka bir yolu yok. \u00d6zellikle cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan endi\u015fe ediyorsan\u0131z mutlaka bir \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmeniz gerekiyor, bu da faizler \u00fczerinden olmak durumunda. Bu da, Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden, dolayl\u0131 olarak bu politikay\u0131 devam ettirmek anlam\u0131na geliyor\u201d \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Yazgan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cBunlar\u0131n \u00e7ok etkili olmas\u0131 biraz zor. KKM a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilk ba\u015fta d\u00f6vizi biraz a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru \u00e7ekti ve belli bir stabilite de sa\u011flad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, sonras\u0131nda enflasyon kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131namad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rlerin de etkisiyle, beklenti \u00e7ok bozuldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, KKM \u015fu anda etkisini yitirdi. Tekrar ayn\u0131 etkiyi yapabilmek i\u00e7in yeni bir enstr\u00fcman gerekiyordu. KKM a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Merkez Bankas\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f yaparak d\u00f6vizi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekti, buna kar\u015f\u0131n d\u00fczenleme kurun sabit kalmas\u0131nda etkili oldu. Y\u00fckl\u00fc bir sat\u0131\u015f olmadan \u015fu an yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenlemenin kuru o kadar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekebilecek bir etkisi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum; ama belli bir stabilite kazanmas\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkisi olabilir\u201d yorumunda bulundu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve cazibesini artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeni birtak\u0131m \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bloomberg HT yay\u0131n\u0131na …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":30307,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[195],"class_list":["post-30306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoin","tag-swap"],"yoast_head":"\nUzmanlar yeni \u00f6nlemler silsilesini nas\u0131l yorumlad\u0131? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/uzmanlar-yeni-onlemler-silsilesini-nasil-yorumladi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Uzmanlar yeni \u00f6nlemler silsilesini nas\u0131l yorumlad\u0131?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131'n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve cazibesini artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeni birtak\u0131m \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 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