{"id":29392,"date":"2022-06-02T12:30:07","date_gmt":"2022-06-02T09:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=29392"},"modified":"2022-06-02T12:30:07","modified_gmt":"2022-06-02T09:30:07","slug":"eski-boc-baskani-altin-tahminlerini-acikladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/eski-boc-baskani-altin-tahminlerini-acikladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Eski BOC Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Alt\u0131n Tahminlerini A\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Stephen Poloz\u2019a g\u00f6re, \u015fu anda ABD\u2019de yak\u0131n ve kesin bir durgunluk tehlikesi bulunmuyor. Stephen Poloz, enflasyon beklentilerini ve bir enflasyon korumas\u0131 olan alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n neden kalk\u0131\u015f yapamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Stephen Poloz: Resesyon ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz de\u011fil<\/b><\/p>\n

Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 9. Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapan Stephen Poloz, \u201cekonomiyi normalle\u015ftirmek\u201d i\u00e7in hala zaman oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve durgunlu\u011fu \u00f6nlemek ve durumu normale d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in hala \u00f6nemli bir pencere oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda, Covid-19\u2019un patlak vermesine kadar, Kanada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tek haneli rakamlarda istikrarl\u0131 GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n %2 hedef seviyesine yak\u0131n enflasyon g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Baz\u0131 finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131, Stephen Poloz\u2019un yakla\u015fan ABD resesyonuna ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131yor. Poloz\u2019un yorumlar\u0131, Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n bu hafta, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bir resesyonun ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten bir rapor yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada geldi.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Poloz da Powell gibi enflasyon i\u00e7in \u2018ge\u00e7ici\u2019 diyor!<\/b><\/p>\n

Kanada\u2019daki enflasyon konusunda Poloz, bunun sonunda da\u011f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131nda \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ekonomik anlamda \u2018ge\u00e7ici\u2019 teriminin, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldikten hemen sonra normalle\u015fece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini, sadece enflasyonun sonunda y\u00fckselmeyi durduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydediyor. Nisan ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Kanada\u2019daki en son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE), 30 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan %6,8\u2019de bulunuyor. Poloz, \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

G\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz enflasyonun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n teknik anlamda ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu ve bir sonrakinde ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Rusya ve Ukrayna nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ne oldu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 12 ay, belki biraz daha uzun diyebilirim.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Sonunda, Kanada\u2019daki enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %2 hedefine yak\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin eden Stephen Poloz, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn enflasyonun nas\u0131l i\u015fledi\u011fine dair modellemede, beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a sabit kalmas\u0131 \u015fart\u0131yla, %2\u2019ye geri d\u00f6nece\u011fiz. Biraz zaman alacak ama sorun de\u011fil. Devam ederken, bunu yapmak i\u00e7in bir resesyon ya\u015famak zorunda de\u011filiz. Bu benim en iyi senaryom.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cEnflasyonun \u00e7o\u011fun \u2018d\u0131\u015fsal\u2019 ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcnde de\u011fil\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Poloz, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u015fu anda sahip oldu\u011fu enflasyonun \u00e7o\u011funun \u2018d\u0131\u015fsal\u2019 oldu\u011funu ve tamamen merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcnde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6zlerine ekliyor. D\u0131\u015fsal bir g\u00fc\u00e7 gibi, ham petrol gibi y\u00fckselen emtia fiyatlar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydeden Poloz, 120 dolarl\u0131k petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tek ba\u015f\u0131na resesyona neden olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong> haberlerinde de yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 50 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131 konusunda konsens\u00fcs var. Poloz, bunun tek ba\u015f\u0131na Kanada konut piyasas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe neden olmak i\u00e7in yeterli olmayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve \u015fu \u015fekilde izah ediyor:<\/p>\n

Faiz oranlar\u0131 normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, konut piyasas\u0131 yava\u015flamaya mahkum. Ama bunun alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekten \u00f6nemli bir zemin oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebilirim. G\u00f6\u00e7men seviyeleri ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek, bu y\u0131l 400.000\u2019den fazla yeni gelen var. Bu, Kanada konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00f6nemli bir zemin kataca\u011f\u0131ndan emin. Bunun baz\u0131 fiyatlarda d\u00fczeltmeyi \u00f6nleyip \u00f6nlemedi\u011fini, baz\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nan piyasalarda kim ger\u00e7ekten s\u00f6yleyebilir.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Stephen Poloz: Bu y\u00fczden alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 y\u00fcksek i\u015flem g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor<\/b><\/p>\n

K\u0131ymetli metallerle ilgili olarak Poloz, piyasalar\u0131n enflasyonun sonunda normalle\u015fece\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi gibi y\u00fcksek i\u015flem g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cBence bunun bize g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u015fey, d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon beklentilerinin olduk\u00e7a iyi bir \u015fekilde sabitlendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor\u201d diyen Poloz, insanlar\u0131n \u201cenflasyon ger\u00e7ekten y\u00fckselmeye mi ba\u015fl\u0131yor?\u201d gibi sorular sormaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131ndan neler olup bitti\u011fine ve bu konuda ne yapt\u0131klar\u0131na dair dikkatli bir a\u00e7\u0131klama beklediklerini ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cBu ba\u011flamda, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini beklemezdim\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Poloz\u2019a g\u00f6re, hem y\u00fckselen faiz oranlar\u0131 hem de bu beklentileri etkileyen, onlar\u0131 desteklemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT) var ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay boyunca, man\u015fet enflasyon rakamlar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Poloz, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u015fu tahminde bulunuyor:<\/p>\n

Bunun bir\u00e7ok insan\u0131 rahatlataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ve bu ba\u011flamda, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini beklemezdim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hepimizin g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu \u015fi\u015fkinli\u011fe ra\u011fmen uzun vadeli enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bozulmadan kalacak.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cAlt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n birdenbire s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyemezsiniz!\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Poloz, alt\u0131n\u0131n enflasyondan korunma \u00f6zelliklerinin do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fi k\u0131sa vadeli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyat\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda T\u00dcFE\u2019yi takip etmemesinin, alt\u0131n\u0131n artan maliyetlere kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadede enflasyondan korumayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini de s\u00f6zlerine ekliyor. Poloz, son olarak \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Petrol\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 diye, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n sahiplerinin zarar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmek i\u00e7in birdenbire s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyemezsiniz. Enflasyon riskinden korunmak derken kastetti\u011fimiz bu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Stephen Poloz\u2019a g\u00f6re, \u015fu anda ABD\u2019de yak\u0131n ve kesin bir durgunluk tehlikesi bulunmuyor. Stephen Poloz …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":29393,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7],"tags":[1867],"class_list":["post-29392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coin","category-nft","tag-kanada"],"yoast_head":"\nEski BOC Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Alt\u0131n Tahminlerini A\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131! - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/eski-boc-baskani-altin-tahminlerini-acikladi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Eski BOC Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Alt\u0131n Tahminlerini A\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Stephen Poloz\u2019a g\u00f6re, \u015fu anda ABD\u2019de yak\u0131n ve kesin bir durgunluk tehlikesi bulunmuyor. 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