{"id":24797,"date":"2022-05-04T18:00:10","date_gmt":"2022-05-04T15:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=24797"},"modified":"2022-05-04T18:00:10","modified_gmt":"2022-05-04T15:00:10","slug":"fed-karari-geliyor-altin-fiyatlari-ne-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-karari-geliyor-altin-fiyatlari-ne-olacak\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Karar\u0131 Geliyor! Alt\u0131n Fiyatlar\u0131 Ne Olacak?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Federal Rezerv, 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatman\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 50 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131 neredeyse garanti. Yine de, piyasalar ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in devam eden soru, Federal Rezerv\u2019in ne kadar \u015fahin olaca\u011f\u0131 ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde nas\u0131l bir etki yarataca\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n

Colin Cieszynski: Fed e\u011frinin o kadar gerisinde ki k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n

Piyasalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir hareket i\u00e7in neredeyse %100 \u015fans g\u00f6rse de, ekonomistler ve piyasa analistleri yakla\u015fmakta olan kararla ilgili hala \u00e7ok fazla belirsizlik oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir hamle ile piyasalar\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde baz\u0131 beklentiler var.<\/p>\n

Baz\u0131 ekonomistler daha agresif bir hareket i\u00e7in %20 \u015fans g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, CME\u2019nin Fed Watch Tool, piyasalar\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131nda 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir hareket i\u00e7in neredeyse %100 \u015fans g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Brothers Harriman\u2019\u0131n K\u00fcresel Para Birimi Stratejisi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Win Thin, piyasalar\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,25\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydediyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Federal Rezerv ayr\u0131ca bilan\u00e7osunu ayda 95 milyar dolar azaltmaya ba\u015flamay\u0131 da g\u00fcndemine ald\u0131. Baz\u0131 ekonomistlere g\u00f6re, Fed\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki mevcut agresif duru\u015fundan daha fazla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u015fey, planlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rma durumu. SIA Wealth Management ba\u015f piyasa stratejisti Colin Cieszynski, verdi\u011fi bir r\u00f6portajda, be\u015f ay \u00f6nce Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm y\u0131l boyunca 75 baz puan artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor ve \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Fed e\u011frinin o kadar gerisinde ki kendilerini k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131lar ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek i\u00e7in acele ediyorlar<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor<\/b><\/p>\n

K\u0131ymetli metaller piyasas\u0131, hisse senetlerinden daha iyi seyrederken, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlamas\u0131yla \u00f6nemli bir oynakl\u0131k da g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en ay alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve fiyatlar\u0131n 2.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong> haberlerinde de yer verdi\u011fimiz \u00fczere alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Federal Rezerv\u2019in para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckseli\u015f bahislerini tasfiye etmesiyle 2,5 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Alt\u0131n m\u00fccadele ederken, bir\u00e7ok piyasa analisti, tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n\u0131n ABD merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda uzun vadeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye i\u015faret etti\u011fini kaydediyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cAlt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in etkili itici g\u00fc\u00e7ler: Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve kredi marjlar\u0131\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Baz\u0131 emtia analistleri, Federal Rezerv\u2019in agresif pozisyonunun stagflasyon ve hatta resesyon riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir risk ve enflasyon korumas\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fini belirtiyor. Yak\u0131n tarihli bir notta, Quant Insight\u2019\u0131n analitik ba\u015fkan\u0131 Huw Roberts, alt\u0131n\u0131n mevcut piyasa ortam\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli bir g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor ve \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n etkili itici g\u00fc\u00e7leri risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve kredi marjlar\u0131d\u0131r. Uzun vadeli model, alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fcn\u00fc vurguluyor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon seviyeleri, devlet tahvillerinin etkin bir liman olma rol\u00fcn\u00fc ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Belirsizlik ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131yla karakterize edilen bir d\u00fcnya, alt\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ABD Hazinelerinden daha etkili bir riskten korunma arac\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Sal Guatieri\u2019ye g\u00f6re ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 test edilebilir<\/b><\/p>\n

Pek \u00e7ok ekonomist durgunlu\u011fu temel senaryo olarak g\u00f6rmese de, Fed\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 agresif bir \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla tehdidin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Baz\u0131 ekonomistler, mevcut s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ile Fed\u2019in yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 y\u0131l \u00f6nce bu kadar agresif oldu\u011fu son d\u00f6nem aras\u0131nda benzerlikler oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar. BMO Capital Markets k\u0131demli ekonomisti Sal Guatieri, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomi i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ekonomist, \u015fu yorumu yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Durgunluk bizim temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz de\u011fil, ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyon, hatta daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 gibi ters gidebilecek \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u015fey g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 test edilebilir.<\/p>\n

ABD GSY\u0130H verilerinin ekonominin 2022\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %1,4 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve beklentileri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan ekonomik yava\u015flama tehdidi ge\u00e7en hafta keskin bir \u015fekilde artt\u0131. Pek \u00e7ok ekonomist, hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan raporu dikkate almad\u0131, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun ticaret dengesizliklerinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Bununla birlikte, di\u011fer ekonomistler, artan enflasyonun t\u00fcketim \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da faaliyet \u00fczerinde bir engel te\u015fkil edece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Fed yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yapabilecek mi?<\/b><\/p>\n

CIBC\u2019de k\u0131demli ekonomist olan Avery Shenfeld, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131ndaki zorluklar\u0131n\u0131 bir u\u00e7ak gemisine bir jet indirmeye benzetiyor. Bir\u00e7ok ekonomist i\u00e7in enflasyon, Fed\u2019in yumu\u015fak bir ini\u015f yap\u0131p yapamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n anahtar\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

Yap\u0131labilir oldu\u011funu ummak i\u00e7in hala neden var, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda veya 2023\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015flar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakacak. Avery Shenfeld, u\u00e7ak gemilerine inen pilotlar\u0131n tam h\u0131zda gelmedi\u011fini ve Fed\u2019in 2022\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na odakland\u0131ktan sonra hedefini tutturmak i\u00e7in yapmas\u0131 gereken \u015feyin bu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cEnflasyon bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyede kalacak\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Invesco\u2019nun k\u00fcresel piyasa stratejisti Kristina Hooper, enflasyona bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda zirveyi se\u00e7menin genel e\u011filimden daha az \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu ifade ediyor. Enflasyonda keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ABD merkez bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in en iyi senaryo olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydediyor Ancak bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6zlerine ekliyor. Stratejist, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini \u015fu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Enflasyonun bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyede kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Devam eden bask\u0131lar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin y\u0131l sonuna kadar hala m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir \u015fekilde %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Bunun nedeni, Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 ve tedarik zincirlerini ciddi \u015fekilde etkilemesi.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Hooper, y\u00fcksek enflasyonun Federal Rezerv\u2019i en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik agresif yolunu izlemeye zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6zlerine ekliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6rt ile alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde, Fed\u2019in, kendisini e\u011frinin \u00e7ok gerisinde oldu\u011funu alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, yeti\u015fmek i\u00e7in umutsuz olaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Hooper, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

Bu ilk s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma patlamas\u0131ndan sonra, veriler bunu yapma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyorsa, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Federal Rezerv, 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatman\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 50 baz puan …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":24798,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7],"tags":[413,1931],"class_list":["post-24797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coin","category-nft","tag-fed","tag-federal-rezerv"],"yoast_head":"\nFED Karar\u0131 Geliyor! Alt\u0131n Fiyatlar\u0131 Ne Olacak? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-karari-geliyor-altin-fiyatlari-ne-olacak\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FED Karar\u0131 Geliyor! Alt\u0131n Fiyatlar\u0131 Ne Olacak?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Federal Rezerv, 28 y\u0131l\u0131n en agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatman\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde. 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