{"id":223939,"date":"2026-10-01T15:30:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T12:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=223939"},"modified":"2026-10-01T09:56:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T06:56:21","slug":"jpmorgan-fed-faiz-tahminini-acikladi-son-artis-olabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/jpmorgan-fed-faiz-tahminini-acikladi-son-artis-olabilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"J.P. Morgan Fed Faiz Tahminini A\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131: Son Art\u0131\u015f Olabilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

J.P. Morgan<\/strong>, Fed<\/strong>‘in Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz<\/strong><\/a>i 25 baz puan daha art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2027’ye uzanan uzun bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fekonomist Michael Feroli’ye g\u00f6re mevcut enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131nda arz kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklar belirleyici oluyor.<\/p>\n

Fed, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. J.P. Morgan\u2019\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi, Fed yetkililerinin Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 medyan faiz tahminiyle ayn\u0131.<\/p>\n

J.P. Morgan\u2019\u0131n Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Beklentisinin Nedeni Ne?<\/h2>\n

J.P. Morgan, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f daha bekliyor. Bu tahmin, Fed yetkililerinin Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n medyan\u0131yla da \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ancak banka, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli yeni bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Feroli\u2019nin de\u011ferlendirmesinde kritik nokta, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir talep patlamas\u0131ndan de\u011fil, arz taraf\u0131ndaki \u015foklardan kaynaklanmas\u0131. Bu bask\u0131 hafifledi\u011finde Fed\u2019in yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duymayabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon Neden Fed\u2019in \u00d6nceli\u011finde?<\/h2>\n

\u00c7ekirdek PCE<\/strong> enflasyonu 2026 boyunca %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan \u00e7ekirdek PCE, g\u0131da ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hari\u00e7 tutuyor. J.P. Morgan da enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 Fed\u2019in %2\u2019lik hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131n\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n temel nedenlerinden biri olarak g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131nda Fed de enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti\u011fini belirtti. Bankan\u0131n ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131nda 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in medyan PCE enflasyon tahmini %3,7 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Bu rakam, fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar hedefin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Feroli ayr\u0131ca Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadele konusundaki g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini korumas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna ra\u011fmen J.P. Morgan, Ekim ay\u0131nda yeni bir art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in daha zay\u0131f bir gerek\u00e7e bulundu\u011funu savunuyor.<\/p>\n

Fed Ekimde Neden Bekleyebilir?<\/h2>\n

J.P. Morgan, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ekonomi \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in zamana ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Bu nedenle banka, 27-28 Ekim\u2019deki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131 ise 8-9 Aral\u0131k tarihlerinde yap\u0131lacak. J.P. Morgan\u2019\u0131n projeksiyonundaki ikinci ve son art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bu toplant\u0131ya denk geliyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa beklentileri de zaman i\u00e7inde de\u011fi\u015febiliyor. Bu nedenle Ekim karar\u0131 kadar Fed yetkililerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda verece\u011fi mesajlar da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yacak.<\/p>\n

Warsh\u2019\u0131n Reformlar\u0131 Faiz Politikas\u0131n\u0131 De\u011fi\u015ftirir mi?<\/h2>\n

Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh’\u0131n para politikas\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini inceleyen g\u00f6rev g\u00fc\u00e7leri de J.P. Morgan’\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesinde yer ald\u0131. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar aras\u0131nda Fed’in faiz tahminlerini g\u00f6steren dot plot, bilan\u00e7o politikas\u0131, \u00fcretkenlik ve istihdam ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 bulunuyor. Banka, bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesini beklemiyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k Karar\u0131 Piyasalar \u0130\u00e7in Neden \u00d6nemli?<\/h2>\n

Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir kez daha faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklentisi, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n 2027\u2019ye nas\u0131l ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacak. J.P. Morgan\u2019\u0131n senaryosunda Aral\u0131k hamlesi mevcut s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00fcrecinin son ad\u0131m\u0131 olarak kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Kripto piyasas\u0131 da faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki de\u011fi\u015fimlere duyarl\u0131. CoinShares verilerine g\u00f6re dijital varl\u0131k fonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7en hafta 3,55 milyar dolarl\u0131k giri\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve bu, 2026\u2019n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek haftal\u0131k giri\u015fiydi. Yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bu talebin korunup korunamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

J.P. Morgan\u2019\u0131n senaryosu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 2027\u2019de odaklanaca\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, Fed\u2019in enflasyonu ne h\u0131zla %2 hedefine yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi olacak.<\/p>\n

\n

Bu i\u00e7erik genel piyasa verilerine dayan\u0131r ve yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi de\u011fildir. Kendi ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131z\u0131 yapman\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6neririz.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Son Dakika kripto para haberleri i\u00e7in\u00a0hemen t\u0131kla.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

J.P. Morgan, Fed‘in Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faizi 25 baz puan daha art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2027’ye uzanan uzun bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fekonomist Michael Feroli’ye g\u00f6re mevcut enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131nda arz kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklar belirleyici oluyor. Fed, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. J.P. Morgan\u2019\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi, Fed yetkililerinin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":150780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1512],"tags":[44230,16845,44101,7517,44229,23215],"class_list":["post-223939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haber","tag-aralik-fed-karari","tag-fed-enflasyon","tag-fed-faiz-artisi","tag-fed-faiz-karari","tag-jpmorgan-fed","tag-michael-feroli"],"yoast_head":"\nJ.P. Morgan Fed Faiz Tahminini A\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131: Son Art\u0131\u015f Olabilir mi? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"J.P. 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