{"id":220792,"date":"2026-08-31T14:00:06","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T11:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=220792"},"modified":"2026-08-31T10:46:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T07:46:46","slug":"fed-faiz-artiracak-mi-piyasanin-verdigi-cevap-sasirtti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-faiz-artiracak-mi-piyasanin-verdigi-cevap-sasirtti\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Faiz Art\u0131racak m\u0131? Piyasan\u0131n Verdi\u011fi Cevap \u015ea\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fed<\/strong>\u2019in eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lense de piyasa bunu hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmi\u015f bir karar olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz<\/strong> art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %59 seviyesinde. Bu oran, %90 ve \u00fczerindeki \u201cneredeyse kesin\u201d fiyatlaman\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Beklentiler, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. Warsh, enflasyonun i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerden daha fazla endi\u015fe yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi PCE enflasyonu ise %3,7 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefi %2.<\/p>\n

Fed Faiz Art\u0131racak m\u0131?<\/h2>\n

CME FedWatch, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ancak hen\u00fcz kesin bir sonu\u00e7 fiyatlam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bianco Research kurucusu Jim Bianco, X \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckesinle\u015fmi\u015f bir anla\u015fma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in g\u00f6sterge faiz oran\u0131 \u015fu anda %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bulunuyor. Piyasadaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ise Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Warsh\u2019\u0131n S\u00f6zleri Bitcoin\u2019i Nas\u0131l Etkiledi?<\/h2>\n

Warsh cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, enflasyonun kendi kendine Fed\u2019in %2 hedefine d\u00f6nmesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ayr\u0131ca son bir y\u0131lda h\u00fck\u00fcmetin takip etti\u011fi mal ve hizmetlerin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131n en az %3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Pandemi \u00f6ncesindeki 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde bu oran yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te bir seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n

A\u00e7\u0131klamalar piyasada \u015fahin olarak yorumland\u0131. Bitcoin ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 d\u00fc\u015ferek 77.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Alt\u0131n da de\u011fer kaybederken Dolar Endeksi ve ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin<\/strong>, a\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 63.000 dolardan 80.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Warsh\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131ndaki ilk \u00f6nemli geri \u00e7ekilme oldu.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Neyi De\u011fi\u015ftirebilir?<\/h2>\n

Baz\u0131 analistler, olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n klasik anlamda para politikas\u0131n\u0131 sertle\u015ftirmekten farkl\u0131 bir amac\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Brookings Institution k\u0131demli ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131s\u0131 ve eski IIF ba\u015fekonomisti Robin Brooks, olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Hazine piyasas\u0131ndaki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Brooks\u2019a g\u00f6re b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m, Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadeledeki g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini destekleyebilir. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uzun vadeli tahvilleri elde tutmak i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi ek primi azaltarak tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n

Brooks, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvilinin getirisini kontrol alt\u0131nda tutman\u0131n olas\u0131 bir eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n temel ama\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri olabilece\u011fini savunuyor. Ona g\u00f6re b\u00f6yle bir hamle, geleneksel bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n aksine finansal ko\u015fullar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rmak yerine daha gev\u015fek ko\u015fullar\u0131n korunmas\u0131na hizmet edebilir.<\/p>\n

ABN AMRO Investment Solutions ve Brandywine Global Investment Management da eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerine kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sergiliyor.<\/p>\n

Fed Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131rsa Bitcoin Ne Olur?<\/h2>\n

Fed’in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 ilk etapta Bitcoin gibi riskli varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Daha y\u00fcksek faiz, dolar ve tahvil getirilerini desteklerken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 sermayeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Piyasalar yaln\u0131zca faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, Fed\u2019in bundan sonra ne yapaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin mesaj\u0131n\u0131 da fiyatl\u0131yor. Enflasyon, ETF ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131, k\u00fcresel likidite ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de ayn\u0131 anda devreye giriyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak bu kez tablo biraz daha karma\u015f\u0131k. Baz\u0131 analistler, olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya do\u011frudan daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar getirmek yerine Fed’in enflasyonla m\u00fccadeledeki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermeye hizmet edebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Robin Brooks da bu nedenle b\u00f6yle bir karar\u0131n uzun vadeli tahvil getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n beklenenden daha gev\u015fek kalabilece\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu senaryoda Bitcoin<\/strong><\/a> \u00fczerindeki etkinin yaln\u0131zca faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n kendisine ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 beklenmiyor. Tahvil getirileri ve dolar\u0131n verece\u011fi tepki, BTC’nin karar sonras\u0131nda nas\u0131l fiyatlanaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergeler aras\u0131nda olacak.<\/p>\n

\n

Bu i\u00e7erik genel piyasa verilerine dayan\u0131r ve yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi de\u011fildir. Kendi ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131z\u0131 yapman\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6neririz.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Son Dakika kripto para haberleri i\u00e7in\u00a0hemen t\u0131kla.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lense de piyasa bunu hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmi\u015f bir karar olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %59 seviyesinde. Bu oran, %90 ve \u00fczerindeki \u201cneredeyse kesin\u201d fiyatlaman\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda. Beklentiler, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. Warsh, enflasyonun<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":217854,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1512],"tags":[12,43770,29042,7517,43809,28345,37847],"class_list":["post-220792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haber","tag-bitcoin","tag-eylul-fed-karari","tag-fed-faiz-artirimi","tag-fed-faiz-karari","tag-fedwatch","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-pce-enflasyonu"],"yoast_head":"\nFed Faiz Art\u0131racak m\u0131? Piyasan\u0131n Verdi\u011fi Cevap \u015ea\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131 - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fed faiz art\u0131racak m\u0131? 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