{"id":220041,"date":"2026-08-25T13:30:49","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T10:30:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=220041"},"modified":"2026-08-25T16:00:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T13:00:08","slug":"arthur-hayes-bitcoinde-boga-dalgasi-bekliyor-neden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/arthur-hayes-bitcoinde-boga-dalgasi-bekliyor-neden\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Bitcoin\u2019de Bo\u011fa Dalgas\u0131 Bekliyor: Neden?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin<\/strong>\u2019de yeni bir bo\u011fa<\/strong> piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. BitMEX kurucu orta\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131, zamanla dolar likiditesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve bu durum Bitcoin\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Hayes bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cSame Same But Different\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 son yaz\u0131s\u0131nda ortaya koydu. Ona g\u00f6re piyasalar yaln\u0131zca Fed\u2019in faiz<\/strong> karar\u0131na bakarak okunmamal\u0131. Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma ve tahvil piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hamleleri de finansal sistemdeki likiditeyi de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n

Bessent\u2019in Tahvil Hamlesi Bitcoin\u2019i Neden \u0130lgilendiriyor?<\/h2>\n

Hayes\u2019in tezinin merkezinde ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi bulunuyor. Analiste g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5 seviyesi kritik bir e\u015fik.<\/p>\n

10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi y\u00fckseldi\u011finde mortgage, \u015firket tahvilleri ve di\u011fer bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Hayes, bu nedenle ABD y\u00f6netiminin bu seviyeyi kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak istedi\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bessent, 19 A\u011fustos’ta uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bir sonraki mali \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in uzun vadeli taraftaki geri al\u0131m miktar\u0131 20 milyar dolar art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Tahvil getirileri ilk a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gerilese de etki uzun s\u00fcrmedi ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri daha sonra yeniden a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesindeki seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hayes\u2019e g\u00f6re bu durum \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ilk m\u00fcdahale piyasay\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde rahatlatmad\u0131. Ona g\u00f6re daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ad\u0131mlar gerekebilir.<\/p>\n

Hayes Bitcoin \u0130\u00e7in 2023\u2019\u00fc Neden \u00d6rnek G\u00f6steriyor?<\/h2>\n

Hayes\u2019in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc senaryosunu anlaman\u0131n anahtar\u0131 2023.<\/p>\n

O d\u00f6nemde Hazine Bakan\u0131 Janet Yellen, uzun vadeli tahviller yerine daha fazla k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine bonosu ihra\u00e7 etti. Hayes\u2019e g\u00f6re bu de\u011fi\u015fim, para piyasas\u0131 fonlar\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in ters repo mekanizmas\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu paray\u0131 Hazine bonolar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in Reverse Repo Program\u0131’ndaki bakiye yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 trilyon dolardan 100 milyar dolara kadar geriledi. Hayes bunu yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,4 trilyon dolarl\u0131k likidite hareketi olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor ve bu s\u00fcrecin Bitcoin ile Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor.<\/p>\n

Hayes\u2019in \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 net: Fed faizleri y\u00fcksek tutsa bile Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7 y\u00f6netimi finansal piyasalar\u0131n likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Bitcoin i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 izlemek yeterli olmayabilir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Bitcoin \u0130\u00e7in Yeni Likidite Dalgas\u0131 Nereden Gelebilir?<\/h2>\n

Hayes\u2019in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc beklentisi, Bessent\u2019in benzer bir likidite etkisi yaratabilecek yeni ara\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelmesi.<\/p>\n

Analist, Hazine\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadeli bonolar\u0131 daha fazla kullanarak bor\u00e7lanma yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ve elde etti\u011fi kaynakla daha uzun vadeli tahvilleri geri almas\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece getiri e\u011frisinin uzun taraf\u0131ndaki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak Hayes\u2019e g\u00f6re as\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fck se\u00e7enek Treasury General Account (TGA).<\/p>\n

TGA, ABD Hazinesi\u2019nin Fed\u2019de tuttu\u011fu nakit hesab\u0131. Hayes, bu hesapta yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar bulundu\u011funu ve Bessent\u2019in bunu tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in kullanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu ihtimal art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca Hayes\u2019in yaz\u0131s\u0131nda yer alan bir senaryo da de\u011fil; CNBC\u2019nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere konu Hazine taraf\u0131nda da de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Burada \u00f6nemli ayr\u0131m \u015fu: TGA\u2019n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 otomatik olarak Bitcoin\u2019e para girece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Hayes\u2019in tezi, \u00f6nce tahvil piyasas\u0131nda likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi, ard\u0131ndan bunun daha geni\u015f riskli varl\u0131klara yans\u0131mas\u0131 \u00fczerine kurulu.<\/p>\n

Bessent\u2019in \u00d6n\u00fcnde Hangi Senaryolar Var?<\/h2>\n

Hayes \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 ihtimalden s\u00f6z ediyor.<\/p>\n

En k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo, ABD y\u00f6netiminin harcamalar\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 ve yeni likidite yaratmaktan geri durmas\u0131. Hayes bunun siyasi nedenlerle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Daha agresif senaryoda ise Bessent’in 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi y\u00fczde 5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck geri al\u0131mlara y\u00f6nelmesi ve fiilen getiri e\u011frisi kontrol\u00fcne yakla\u015fan bir politika izlemesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Hayes bunu Bitcoin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc likidite senaryosu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Hayes\u2019in daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yol ise daha kademeli. Buna g\u00f6re Hazine geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ad\u0131mlarla art\u0131rabilir ve piyasadaki stres y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e farkl\u0131 likidite ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 devreye sokabilir. Hayes, MOVE Endeksi\u2019nin 130\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 daha ciddi bir piyasa stresi g\u00f6stergesi olarak izliyor.<\/p>\n

Arthur Hayes Bitcoin\u2019de Neyi Bekliyor?<\/h2>\n

Hayes\u2019in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc burada olduk\u00e7a net: BTC<\/a> yeni bir bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131na girdi. Ancak bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te sert d\u00fczeltmeler ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini de kabul ediyor. Ona g\u00f6re fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc yukar\u0131 olsa bile hareket d\u00fcz bir \u00e7izgide ilerlemeyecek.<\/p>\n

Hayes ayr\u0131ca kendi yat\u0131r\u0131m \u015firketi Maelstrom\u2019un \u015fu anda \u201cmaksimum risk\u201d seviyesinde oldu\u011funu ve portf\u00f6y\u00fcnde Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethena ve Ether.fi bulundu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Burada dikkat edilmesi gereken nokta, Hayes\u2019in Bitcoin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn bir likidite senaryosuna dayanmas\u0131. Bessent\u2019in daha agresif tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131na gitmesi veya TGA\u2019y\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 hen\u00fcz kesinle\u015fmi\u015f bir politika de\u011fil. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Bitcoin i\u00e7in \u00e7izilen bo\u011fa senaryosu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f bir sonu\u00e7 de\u011fil, Hazine\u2019nin atabilece\u011fi ad\u0131mlara dayanan bir beklenti.<\/p>\n

Hayes\u2019in tezinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taraf\u0131 ise Bitcoin\u2019i do\u011frudan yaln\u0131zca kripto i\u00e7i geli\u015fmelerle de\u011fil, ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131 ve dolar likiditesiyle birlikte de\u011ferlendirmesi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde Bessent\u2019in tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n boyutu ve TGA konusunda at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ne kadar isabetli oldu\u011funu test edecek.<\/p>\n

\n

Bu i\u00e7erik genel piyasa verilerine dayan\u0131r ve yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi de\u011fildir. Kendi ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131z\u0131 yapman\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6neririz.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Son Dakika kripto para haberleri i\u00e7in\u00a0hemen t\u0131kla.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin\u2019de yeni bir bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. BitMEX kurucu orta\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in tahvil geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131, zamanla dolar likiditesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve bu durum Bitcoin\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini destekleyebilir. Hayes bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cSame Same But Different\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 son yaz\u0131s\u0131nda ortaya koydu. Ona g\u00f6re piyasalar yaln\u0131zca Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131na bakarak okunmamal\u0131. Hazine\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":203381,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1512],"tags":[26597,10109,12,10772,40484,43704],"class_list":["post-220041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-haber","tag-abd-tahvil-faizleri","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-boga-piyasasi","tag-bitcoin-likiditesi","tag-bitcoin-makro-analiz"],"yoast_head":"\nArthur Hayes Bitcoin\u2019de Bo\u011fa Dalgas\u0131 Bekliyor: Neden? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes Bitcoin\u2019de yeni bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 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