{"id":217036,"date":"2026-07-28T17:00:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T14:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=217036"},"modified":"2026-07-28T11:00:33","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T08:00:33","slug":"fed-faiz-artirir-mi-citadelden-dikkat-ceken-tahmin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-faiz-artirir-mi-citadelden-dikkat-ceken-tahmin\/","title":{"rendered":"FED Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131r M\u0131? Citadel’den Dikkat \u00c7eken Tahmin!"},"content":{"rendered":"

FED<\/strong> faiz<\/strong> karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalarda belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken, Citadel Securities’ten gelen dikkat \u00e7ekici bir de\u011ferlendirme yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131na yerle\u015fti. Piyasadaki genel beklenti faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olsa da \u015firket, ABD<\/a> Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n bu haftaki toplant\u0131da 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo yaln\u0131zca k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131 de\u011fil, kripto para piyasas\u0131 ve di\u011fer riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 da do\u011frudan etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n

Citadel Neden FED’den Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Bekliyor?<\/h2>\n

Citadel<\/a> Securities Makro Strateji Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Frank Flight, m\u00fc\u015fterilere g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi de\u011ferlendirme notunda piyasalar\u0131n FED’in daha \u015fahin bir para politikas\u0131 benimseyebilece\u011fini tam olarak fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Flight’a g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha sert ad\u0131mlar atma ihtimalini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Analiste g\u00f6re faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ertelenmesine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir mesaj verebilir. B\u00f6yle bir karar, \u015firketlerin fiyatlama stratejilerini ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n \u00fccret beklentilerini erken d\u00f6nemde \u015fekillendirerek ilerleyen s\u00fcre\u00e7te daha sert parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir.<\/p>\n

Flight ayr\u0131ca bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden sa\u011flama hedefini de destekleyece\u011fini savunuyor. Ona g\u00f6re piyasalar, FED’in \u015fahin duru\u015funun kapsam\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha hafife al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Temmuz Ay\u0131ndaki Karar Neden Daha Kritik G\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor?<\/h2>\n

Son d\u00f6nemde a\u00e7\u0131klanan istihdam ve enflasyon verileri beklentilerden daha yumu\u015fak gelse de Citadel, genel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon risklerine i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etmesi de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini destekleyen unsurlar aras\u0131nda g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle \u015firket, erken al\u0131nacak bir karar\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011fini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyor. FED’in enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 kararl\u0131 bir mesaj vermesi, yaln\u0131zca tahvil ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, dijital varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da etkileyebilecek geli\u015fmeler aras\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar FED Karar\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l Fiyatl\u0131yor?<\/h2>\n

Vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131nda ise faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc senaryo olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ancak faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin son g\u00fcnlerde belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibar\u0131yla 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 37,9 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bir hafta \u00f6nce ayn\u0131 ihtimal yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 25,7 seviyesindeydi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, piyasalarda beklentilerin h\u0131zla yeniden \u015fekillendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Tahmin piyasalar\u0131nda ise daha temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Kalshi, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 28, Polymarket ise y\u00fczde 27,5 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna ra\u011fmen son 24 saatte her iki platformda da dikkat \u00e7ekici hareketler ya\u015fand\u0131. Kalshi’deki ilgili s\u00f6zle\u015fme 8 puan y\u00fckselirken i\u015flem hacmi 45 milyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Polymarket’te ise temmuz ay\u0131 FED karar\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasada 107 milyon dolar\u0131 a\u015fan i\u015flem hacmi olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\"fed<\/p>\n

Kripto Para Piyasas\u0131 FED Karar\u0131ndan Nas\u0131l Etkilenebilir?<\/h2>\n

FED’in alaca\u011f\u0131 karar, \u00f6zellikle riskli varl\u0131klarda k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketlerini belirleyebilecek en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda azalma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k faizlerin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 veya daha g\u00fcvercin mesajlar verilmesi, kripto yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan Reuters’\u0131n 17-21 Temmuz tarihleri aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ankete kat\u0131lan 104 ekonomistin hi\u00e7birinin bu toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklememesi, Citadel’in tahminini piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcnden ay\u0131ran en \u00f6nemli unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu i\u00e7erik kesinlikle yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131mamaktad\u0131r. Piyasalar y\u00fcksek risk i\u00e7ermektedir ve yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 almadan \u00f6nce kendi ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131z\u0131 yapman\u0131z \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n

Son Dakika kripto para haberleri i\u00e7in hemen t\u0131kla.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FED faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalarda belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken, Citadel Securities’ten gelen dikkat \u00e7ekici bir de\u011ferlendirme yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131na yerle\u015fti. Piyasadaki genel beklenti faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olsa da \u015firket, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n bu haftaki toplant\u0131da 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo yaln\u0131zca k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131 de\u011fil, kripto para piyasas\u0131 ve di\u011fer riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":211292,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9692,1512],"tags":[8082,10574,15817,413,7517,28345,1180,224],"class_list":["post-217036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","category-haber","tag-ekonomi","tag-faiz-artisi","tag-faiz-indirimi","tag-fed","tag-fed-faiz-karari","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-trump","tag-yatirim"],"yoast_head":"\nFED Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131r M\u0131? Citadel'den Dikkat \u00c7eken Tahmin! - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"FED faiz art\u0131racak m\u0131? 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Citadel'in dikkat \u00e7eken tahmini, CME FedWatch olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve karar\u0131n kripto para piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkileri!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fed-faiz-artirir-mi-citadelden-dikkat-ceken-tahmin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Coin M\u00fchendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/coinmuhendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-28T14:00:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/fed-faiz-indirimi_cm.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Emre Yumlu\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Emre Yumlu\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/fed-faiz-artirir-mi-citadelden-dikkat-ceken-tahmin\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/fed-faiz-artirir-mi-citadelden-dikkat-ceken-tahmin\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Emre Yumlu\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b420e8dd526693b7d9988349af8fb3bd\"},\"headline\":\"FED Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131r M\u0131? 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