{"id":195988,"date":"2026-02-13T10:30:45","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T07:30:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=195988"},"modified":"2026-02-13T10:03:46","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T07:03:46","slug":"bitcoin-ve-ethereumda-3-milyar-dolarlik-opsiyon-gunu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/bitcoin-ve-ethereumda-3-milyar-dolarlik-opsiyon-gunu\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin ve Ethereum\u2019da 3 Milyar Dolarl\u0131k Opsiyon G\u00fcn\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kripto<\/strong> piyasas\u0131nda bug\u00fcn g\u00f6zler tek bir noktada toplanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 milyar dolarl\u0131k Bitcoin<\/strong> ve Ethereum<\/a> opsiyonu<\/strong>, TS\u0130 11:00\u2019de\u00a0 Deribit<\/span><\/span> \u00fczerinde vadesini dolduruyor. Son likidasyon dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen bu b\u00fcy\u00fck uzla\u015fma, piyasadaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan dengeyi yeniden test ediyor.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ama t\u00fcrev taraf\u0131ndaki veriler, bu sessizli\u011fin biraz \u201czoraki\u201d oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Max pain yukar\u0131da, duygu h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bak\u0131yor<\/h3>\n

Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda Bitcoin<\/span><\/span> yakla\u015f\u0131k 66.372 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Toplam a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2,53 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015farken, max pain<\/em> noktas\u0131 74.000 dolar civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Ethereum<\/span><\/span> cephesinde tablo benzer. Fiyat yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.950 dolar, opsiyonlardaki notional a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon 425 milyon dolar civar\u0131nda ve max pain seviyesi 2.100 dolar.<\/p>\n

Teoride bu, piyasada \u00f6nemli bir kesimin fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 do\u011fru \u201cs\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesinden\u201d fayda sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Pratikte ise i\u015fler o kadar basit de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc opsiyon piyasas\u0131ndaki duyarl\u0131l\u0131k h\u00e2l\u00e2 temkinli.<\/p>\n

Son haftaki sert sat\u0131\u015ftan sonra gelen toparlanma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 psikolojisini tam olarak onarm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Put skew h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u011f\u0131r bas\u0131yor: Koruma talebi bitmi\u015f de\u011fil<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev analiz firmas\u0131 Laevitas<\/span><\/span>, Bitcoin risk reversallar\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen negatif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. 1 haftal\u0131k ve 1 ayl\u0131k 25-delta RR de\u011ferleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k \u221213 ve \u221211 vol seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n

Bu ne demek?<\/p>\n

Basit\u00e7e s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, trader\u2019lar h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta almaya istekli. Put opsiyonlar\u0131na \u00f6denen primler y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Bu da piyasada \u201cdaha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n canl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Risk reversal verileri genelde g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcy\u00fc kesip \u00f6z\u00fcne bakmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r. \u015eu an verdi\u011fi mesaj net: korku tam olarak da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Likidasyon \u015foku sonras\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan denge<\/h3>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta Bitcoin\u2019in 70.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla tetiklenen likidasyon zinciri, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda y\u0131llard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir put kaymas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Deribit analistlerine g\u00f6re bu hareket, son y\u0131llar\u0131n en sert skew de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden biriydi.<\/p>\n

Fiyatlar sonras\u0131nda 67 bin band\u0131na do\u011fru toparland\u0131. Ancak bu t\u00fcr olaylar piyasada iz b\u0131rak\u0131r. Trader refleksleri de\u011fi\u015fir. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 bir s\u00fcre bast\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. \u015eu an g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz tablo da biraz buna benziyor.<\/p>\n

Son g\u00fcnlerde baz\u0131 oyuncular\u0131n yeniden call opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6neldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor, evet. Volatilite pani\u011fin zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. Ama bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok k\u0131r\u0131lgan.<\/p>\n

Deribit taraf\u0131 piyasay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u201ckritik bir e\u015fik\u201d olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Kurumsallar orta vadede h\u00e2l\u00e2 karamsar<\/h3>\n

Opsiyon ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen Greeks.live<\/span><\/span>, Bitcoin t\u00fcrevlerinde put a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildiriyor. Bug\u00fcn BTC taraf\u0131nda 1 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu, toplam hacmin yakla\u015f\u0131k %37\u2019si. \u00dcstelik bu kontratlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc 60.000\u201365.000 dolar band\u0131ndaki out-of-the-money<\/em> seviyelerde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu detay \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc genelde bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar, k\u0131sa vadeli trade\u2019den \u00e7ok orta vadeli korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. Greeks.live analistlerine g\u00f6re kurumsal taraf, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20132 ay i\u00e7inde daha zay\u0131f bir piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131 ihtimalini masada tutuyor.<\/p>\n

Vade uzla\u015fmas\u0131 rahatlat\u0131r m\u0131, yoksa fitili mi ate\u015fler?<\/h3>\n

Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki opsiyon expirylari bazen fiyat \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli \u201c\u00e7ekim etkisi\u201d yarat\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 strike seviyeleri etraf\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici denge olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc uzla\u015fma sonras\u0131 iki senaryo \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n