{"id":195203,"date":"2026-02-08T11:30:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T08:30:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=195203"},"modified":"2026-02-08T10:47:50","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T07:47:50","slug":"mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\/","title":{"rendered":"Mart FOMC \u00d6ncesi Faiz \u0130ndirimi \u0130htimali %23!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Piyasalarda Kevin Warsh adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla birlikte r\u00fczgar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc asl\u0131nda tamamen de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Mart ay\u0131ndaki FOMC<\/strong><\/a> toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz<\/strong> indirimi ihtimali %23 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu oran cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yaln\u0131zca %18,4\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve cephesinden gelen sinyaller, \u00f6zellikle Kevin Warsh ismi etraf\u0131nda olu\u015fan belirsizlik, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden \u015fekillendiriyor. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group verilerine g\u00f6re, faiz indirimi bekleyen trader oran\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 puan artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ancak dikkat \u00e7ekici bir detay var: Piyasa yaln\u0131zca 25 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir indirim fiyatl\u0131yor. Daha agresif, yani 50 baz puan ve \u00fczeri bir hamleye dair neredeyse kimse pozisyon alm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu da beklentinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama temkinli kuruldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Warsh Fakt\u00f6r\u00fc: Piyasalar Yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130htimalini Sindirmeye \u00c7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor<\/h2>\n

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ocak ay\u0131nda Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131 Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in aday g\u00f6sterdi. Mevcut ba\u015fkan Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi may\u0131sta sona eriyor.<\/p>\n

Warsh, piyasa taraf\u0131ndan \u201c\u015fahin\u201d olarak okunuyor. Yani y\u00fcksek faiz politikas\u0131na daha uzun s\u00fcre ba\u011fl\u0131 kalabilecek bir profil. Kripto piyasas\u0131 analisti Nic Puckrin\u2019e g\u00f6re, Warsh\u2019\u0131n adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle ocak sonu ve \u015fubat ba\u015f\u0131nda de\u011ferli metallerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert geri \u00e7ekilmenin arkas\u0131ndaki ana psikolojik tetikleyicilerden biri:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cPiyasalar Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed politikalar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sindirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle bilan\u00e7o konusunda s\u00f6yledikleri dikkat \u00e7ekici. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunun \u2018gere\u011finden trilyonlarca dolar b\u00fcy\u00fck\u2019 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme (quantitative tightening) ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Yani sistemden likidite \u00e7ekilmesi.<\/p>\n

Basit\u00e7e: daha az para, daha zor finansman. Ve bu, riskli varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in iyi bir senaryo say\u0131lmaz.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Kripto A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Denklem Net: Likidite Daral\u0131rsa Fiyatlar Zorlan\u0131r<\/h2>\n

Faiz politikas\u0131 kripto varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan etkili. Gev\u015feyen para ko\u015fullar\u0131 genellikle Bitcoin ve altcoinler i\u00e7in pozitif fiyat kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc olurken, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde tablo tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Krediye eri\u015fim zorla\u015f\u0131yor, kald\u0131ra\u00e7 azal\u0131yor, i\u015ftah d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Kraken\u2019in global ekonomisti Thomas Perfumo, Warsh adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in \u201ckarma\u015f\u0131k\u201d bir mesaj ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bir yandan ekonomik istikrar beklentisi olu\u015fuyor. Di\u011fer yandan, kripto piyasas\u0131n\u0131n umut ba\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 likidite geni\u015flemesi senaryosu zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Perfumo\u2019ya g\u00f6re bu adayl\u0131k, ABD\u2019de kredi ve para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemek yerine dengelenebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da kripto yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n son aylarda kurdu\u011fu rahat anlat\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Son tablo: \u0130ndirim \u0130htimali Y\u00fckseldi<\/h2>\n

Mart FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken piyasa iki ayr\u0131 gerilim hatt\u0131nda ilerliyor.<\/p>\n

Bir tarafta artan faiz indirimi beklentisi. Di\u011fer tarafta daha \u015fahin bir Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. \u015eu an i\u00e7in trader\u2019lar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fck hamleye g\u00fcven yok. Likidite cephesinde ise net bir geni\u015fleme hik\u00e2yesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 kurulabilmi\u015f de\u011fil. Bu da hem geleneksel piyasalar\u0131 hem kripto taraf\u0131n\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Son dakika kripto para haberleri i\u00e7in\u00a0hemen t\u0131kla<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalarda Kevin Warsh adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla birlikte r\u00fczgar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc asl\u0131nda tamamen de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Mart ay\u0131ndaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi ihtimali %23 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu oran cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yaln\u0131zca %18,4\u2019t\u00fc. Federal Reserve cephesinden gelen sinyaller, \u00f6zellikle Kevin Warsh ismi etraf\u0131nda olu\u015fan belirsizlik, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden \u015fekillendiriyor. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group verilerine g\u00f6re, faiz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":164362,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1512],"tags":[39458,39457,30252,39455,39456],"class_list":["post-195203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haber","tag-abd-para-politikasi","tag-bitcoin-makro-baski","tag-fed-faiz-indirimi-beklentisi","tag-fomc-mart-toplantisi","tag-kripto-likidite-sinyali"],"yoast_head":"\nMart FOMC \u00d6ncesi Faiz \u0130ndirimi \u0130htimali %23! - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Trader\u2019lar mart FOMC\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi ihtimalini olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. 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Warsh etkisi piyasay\u0131 geriyor.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-#\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Coin M\u00fchendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/coinmuhendisi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-08T08:30:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fed-faiz-1024x576.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Yeliz Akmaca\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@coinmuhendisim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Yeliz Akmaca\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Yeliz Akmaca\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/aab8cd80b6a76dc08ee7c30adb233be6\"},\"headline\":\"Mart FOMC \u00d6ncesi Faiz \u0130ndirimi \u0130htimali %23!\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-08T08:30:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":565,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/08\\\/fed-faiz.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ABD para politikas\u0131\",\"Bitcoin makro bask\u0131\",\"fed faiz indirimi beklentisi\",\"FOMC mart toplant\u0131s\u0131\",\"kripto likidite sinyali\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Haberler\"],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2026\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/\",\"name\":\"Mart FOMC \u00d6ncesi Faiz \u0130ndirimi \u0130htimali %23! - Coin M\u00fchendisi\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/mart-fomc-oncesi-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-%23\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/coinmuhendisi.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/08\\\/fed-faiz.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-08T08:30:32+00:00\",\"description\":\"Trader\u2019lar mart FOMC\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi ihtimalini olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. 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