{"id":194825,"date":"2026-02-05T14:00:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T11:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=194825"},"modified":"2026-02-05T10:50:20","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T07:50:20","slug":"polymarket-verilerine-gore-subat-ayi-bitcoin-beklentileri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/polymarket-verilerine-gore-subat-ayi-bitcoin-beklentileri\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket Verilerine G\u00f6re \u015eubat Ay\u0131 Bitcoin Beklentileri"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin<\/strong> fiyat\u0131nda ya\u015fanan son sert geri \u00e7ekilme, piyasalarda k\u0131sa vadeli beklentilerin yeniden \u015fekillenmesine neden oldu. Asya seans\u0131nda Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 72.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkan Bitcoin, yakla\u015f\u0131k son 16 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini test etti. Fiyat daha sonra k\u0131smen toparlansa da, tahmin piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalar \u015eubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Ger\u00e7ek parayla i\u015flem yap\u0131lan tahmin platformu Polymarket<\/strong><\/a>\u2019teki kontratlar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentilerden \u00e7ok kritik destek seviyelerini savunmaya odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

\u015eubat Ay\u0131nda Bitcoin i\u00e7in Kritik E\u015fik: 70.000 Dolar<\/h2>\n

Polymarket\u2019in \u015eubat ay\u0131 Bitcoin fiyat kontratlar\u0131, 70.000 dolar seviyesinin piyasa i\u00e7in adeta bir \u201cson savunma hatt\u0131\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Ay\u0131n bitimine 24 g\u00fcn kala, yaln\u0131zca 70.000 dolar hedefi i\u00e7in i\u015flem hacmi 1,78 milyon dolara yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu seviye i\u00e7in bi\u00e7ilen olas\u0131l\u0131k %74\u2019e y\u00fckselerek ay\u0131n en yo\u011fun i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fiyat noktas\u0131 haline geldi.<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentiler ise belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f durumda. 85.000 dolar hedefinin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %29\u2019a gerilerken, 90.000 ve 95.000 dolar seviyeleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla %12 ve %7 ile olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimaller olarak fiyatlan\u0131yor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta ise daha kontroll\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm var. 65.000 dolar i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131k %39, 60.000 dolar i\u00e7in ise %19 seviyesinde bulunuyor. 55.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimali ise olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, \u015eubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n 65.000 \u2013 85.000 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 temel senaryo olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, 70.000 dolar\u0131n ise en olas\u0131 denge noktas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\"polymarket\"<\/p>\n

2026 Beklentileri: \u0130yimserlik Zay\u0131fl\u0131yor<\/h2>\n

Daha uzun vadeli Polymarket kontratlar\u0131 ise daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo sunuyor. Bitcoin\u2019in 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda 100.000 dolara ula\u015fma ihtimali %55 olarak fiyatlan\u0131yor ancak bu oran \u00f6nceki haftalara k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda. 110.000 dolar beklentisi de %42\u2019ye gerilemi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Dikkat \u00e7eken bir di\u011fer unsur, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedeflerden ziyade a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere odaklanmas\u0131. 2026 i\u00e7in 65.000 dolar kontrat\u0131 %83 olas\u0131l\u0131kla en y\u00fcksek i\u015flem hacmine sahip senaryo konumunda. Daha y\u00fcksek fiyat hedeflerinde ise ilgi h\u0131zla azal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Sat\u0131\u015f Bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Arka Plan\u0131<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada yakla\u015f\u0131k 73.199 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %16 de\u011fer kaybeden Bitcoin, Ekim 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen 126.000 dolarl\u0131k zirvesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da.<\/p>\n

Sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131nda jeopolitik riskler, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki uzun s\u00fcreli h\u00fck\u00fcmet kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan veri belirsizlikleri ve daha \u015fahin bir Fed y\u00f6netimi beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta ise Ocak sonundan bu yana 5,4 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fan likidasyonlar ve spot Bitcoin ETF\u2019lerinden ya\u015fanan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

Polymarket verileri, piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede toparlanmadan \u00e7ok yatayla\u015fma ve destek savunmas\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in t\u00fcm g\u00f6zler 70.000 dolar seviyesinde. Uzun vadede alt\u0131 haneli fiyatlar tamamen masadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil, ancak bu senaryoya olan inan\u00e7 belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. \u015eu a\u015famada Bitcoin i\u00e7in piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen ana seviye net bi\u00e7imde 70.000 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Son dakika kripto para haberleri i\u00e7in\u00a0hemen<\/a>\u00a0t\u0131kla<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin fiyat\u0131nda ya\u015fanan son sert geri \u00e7ekilme, piyasalarda k\u0131sa vadeli beklentilerin yeniden \u015fekillenmesine neden oldu. Asya seans\u0131nda Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 72.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkan Bitcoin, yakla\u015f\u0131k son 16 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini test etti. Fiyat daha sonra k\u0131smen toparlansa da, tahmin piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalar \u015eubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ger\u00e7ek parayla i\u015flem yap\u0131lan<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":194217,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1512],"tags":[16332,12,10823,207,8795,332,5975,14909,775],"class_list":["post-194825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-haber","tag-bahis","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-haberleri","tag-btc","tag-destek","tag-direnc","tag-dusus","tag-polymarket","tag-tahmin"],"yoast_head":"\nPolymarket Verilerine G\u00f6re \u015eubat Ay\u0131 Bitcoin Beklentileri - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin fiyat\u0131nda ya\u015fanan son sert geri \u00e7ekilme, piyasalarda k\u0131sa vadeli beklentilerin yeniden \u015fekillenmesine neden oldu.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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