{"id":19411,"date":"2022-03-24T22:40:07","date_gmt":"2022-03-24T19:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=19411"},"modified":"2022-03-24T22:40:07","modified_gmt":"2022-03-24T19:40:07","slug":"getiri-egrisi-tersine-donuyor-altin-ve-bitcoini-nasil-etkiler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/getiri-egrisi-tersine-donuyor-altin-ve-bitcoini-nasil-etkiler\/","title":{"rendered":"Getiri E\u011frisi Tersine D\u00f6n\u00fcyor! Alt\u0131n ve Bitcoin\u2019i Nas\u0131l Etkiler?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Federal Rezerv, enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flat\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ABD ekonomisinin durumu ve tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ne s\u00f6yledi\u011fi konusunda endi\u015feleniyor. Bu durumda alt\u0131n ve dijital alt\u0131n oarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Bitcoin fiyat\u0131, bu geli\u015fmelere tepki veriyor.<\/p>\n

Getirisi e\u011frisi, durgunlu\u011fun habercisi mi?<\/b><\/p>\n

ABD ekonomisinin durumuna ili\u015fkin en pop\u00fcler g\u00f6stergelerden biri getiri e\u011frisi. Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda May\u0131s\u2019ta 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f da dahil olmak \u00fczere, Fed beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlayan tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki oynak bir haftan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan getiri e\u011frisi tersine d\u00f6nmeye yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle analistler, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine getirilerine \u00e7ok dikkat ediyor. Exinity Group ba\u015f piyasa analisti Han Tan \u00c7ar\u015famba, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

Daha k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7, \u00f6zellikle 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine faizlerinde y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne 145 baz puana varan art\u0131\u015fla birlikte, Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin duru\u015funun y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu, 1984\u2019ten bu yana en k\u00f6t\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi olu\u015fturacak. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine faizleri de 2019\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli olan %2,40 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle 2 y\u0131l ile 10 y\u0131l aras\u0131ndaki fark \u00e7ok yakla\u015ft\u0131. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 baz puan, 2020\u2019de pandeminin ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fcz oran.<\/p>\n

Getiri e\u011frisi tersine d\u00f6nerse (uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiriye sahip oldu\u011funda) bu bir durgunlu\u011fun habercisi olabilir. Ve t\u00fcm bunlar, Fed taraf\u0131ndan yakla\u015fan agresif para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir zamanda geliyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Fed gittik\u00e7e \u015fahinle\u015firken, getiriler y\u00fckseliyor<\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine faizi, haftaya %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ba\u015flad\u0131 ve resesyon riskini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan 2-10 fark\u0131n\u0131 bozuyor\u201d diyen DailyFX stratejistleri, ABD ekonomisinin, 1. \u00c7eyrek sona ererken tedarik zinciri kesintileri ve giderek artan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele eden zorlu bir sava\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca ekonomik momentum g\u00f6stergeleri, 1. \u00c7eyre\u011fin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda +%1,3 gibi yetersiz bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Getirilerdeki son art\u0131\u015f, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma duru\u015funa ili\u015fkin piyasa endi\u015felerine ba\u011flan\u0131yor Coinm\u00fchendisi.com\u00a0<\/strong>olarak bildirdi\u011fimiz \u00fczere Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, enflasyonun \u2018\u00e7ok y\u00fcksek\u2019 oldu\u011funu ve art\u0131k 50 baz puanl\u0131k zamlar\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu belirtti. Ge\u00e7en hafta Mart ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed, 2018\u2019den bu yana ilk kez faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eyrek puan art\u0131rd\u0131. Han Tan, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel tahviller, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n hararetli enflasyonu bast\u0131rmak i\u00e7in daha agresif davranmak zorunda olduklar\u0131na dair korkular nedeniyle \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flerini uzat\u0131yor. Fed Fon vadeli i\u015flemleri \u015fimdi FOMC\u2019nin 2022\u2019nin geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in kalan alt\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yedi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu da yak\u0131nda 50 baz puanl\u0131k daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cAlt\u0131n piyasas\u0131, Fed\u2019in enflasyon e\u011frisinin gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Powell\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de revize eden Goldman Sachs, May\u0131s ve Haziran toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda 50 baz puanl\u0131k iki, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan d\u00f6rt toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ise 25 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in, daha y\u00fcksek faiz, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Ancak durgunluk korkular\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6zellikle Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Dijital alt\u0131n olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen lider kripto Bitcoin ise korkulan\u0131n aksine \u015fahin Fed konu\u015fmalar\u0131na sa\u011flam bir duru\u015fla yan\u0131t verdi. \u0130lk ba\u015flarda 35 bin dolara kadar \u00e7ekilse de sonras\u0131nda psikolojik seviye olan 40 bin dolar\u0131 a\u015fmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131 ve bir s\u00fcredir bu seviyelerde dola\u015f\u0131yor. BTC, son bir haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 kazan\u00e7la 43 bin dolar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve baz\u0131 analistlere g\u00f6re yeni bir ralli i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cPiyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k direni\u015fe hizmet eden bir trend kanal\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizlerini hevesle izliyorlar\u201d diyen TD Securities stratejistleri, bu ba\u011flamda, Ba\u015fkan Powell\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan faiz piyasalar\u0131nda patlayan fiyat hareketine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n inan\u0131lmaz derecede diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na vurgu yap\u0131yor. Stratejistler, konuyu \u015fu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Faiz piyasalar\u0131 \u015fu anda May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek oranlara i\u015faret ederken, alt\u0131n piyasalar\u0131, Fed\u2019in y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015f yolunu enflasyon e\u011frisinin gerisinde olarak yorumlayan artan bir kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 grubunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor olabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok yava\u015f ve temkinli hareket ediyor.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Edward Moya: Alt\u0131n, ipin \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor<\/b><\/p>\n

OANDA k\u0131demli piyasa analisti Edward Moya ise, alt\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fka bir k\u0131r\u0131lma rallisi g\u00f6rmesi i\u00e7in borsan\u0131n getiri art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha ciddiye almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtiyor. Analiste g\u00f6re, alt\u0131n, k\u00fcresel tahvil piyasas\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131lmamak konusunda iyi bir i\u015f \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131, ancak y\u00fckselen hisse senetleri g\u00fcvenli limanlara olan talebi tamamen azaltt\u0131. Analist, \u015fu hususlar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor:<\/p>\n

Artan getiriler, artan stagflasyon riskleri ve Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131na verdi\u011fi yan\u0131tta potansiyel bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor gibi alt\u0131n, ipin \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Alt\u0131n 1.900 dolar seviyesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde iyi bir deste\u011fe sahip olabilir, ancak bu k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentumu \u00e7irkin bir \u015fekilde h\u0131zlanabilir. Alt\u0131n, bu borsa rallisinin h\u0131z\u0131 biter bitmez dengelenmeli.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Federal Rezerv, enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flat\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ABD ekonomisinin durumu ve tahvil …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":19412,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[413,55],"class_list":["post-19411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-fed","tag-piyasa"],"yoast_head":"\nGetiri E\u011frisi Tersine D\u00f6n\u00fcyor! 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