{"id":175493,"date":"2025-10-09T13:00:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T10:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=175493"},"modified":"2025-10-09T12:50:04","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T09:50:04","slug":"arthur-hayese-gore-4-yillik-bitcoin-dongusu-artik-gecerli-degil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/arthur-hayese-gore-4-yillik-bitcoin-dongusu-artik-gecerli-degil\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes\u2019e G\u00f6re 4 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Bitcoin D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc Art\u0131k Ge\u00e7erli De\u011fil!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"357\" data-end=\"663\">Kripto d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konular\u0131ndan biri olan \u201c4 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bitcoin d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d art\u0131k tarihe kar\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilir. <strong>BitMEX<\/strong>\u2019in kurucu orta\u011f\u0131 <strong data-start=\"499\" data-end=\"515\">Arthur Hayes<\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/qcp-capitalden-bitcoin-analizi-alim-firsati-yaklasiyor-mu\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> <\/a>fiyat hareketlerinin san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi yar\u0131lanma (halving) periyotlar\u0131yla de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131yla belirlendi\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"665\" data-end=\"709\">\u201c4 Y\u0131ll\u0131k D\u00f6ng\u00fc Bu Kez \u0130\u015fe Yaramayacak\u201d<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"711\" data-end=\"907\">Hayes, son blog yaz\u0131s\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclere bakarak bu bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n da benzer bir \u015fekilde sonlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"909\" data-end=\"1091\">\n<p data-start=\"911\" data-end=\"1091\">\u201cD\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcne yakla\u015f\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yine ayn\u0131 modeli uygulamak istiyor. Fakat bu kez i\u015fler farkl\u0131; ge\u00e7mi\u015fte i\u015fe yarayan d\u00f6ng\u00fc modeli art\u0131k ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olacak.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"1093\" data-end=\"1277\">Hayes\u2019e g\u00f6re Bitcoin fiyat d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, zaman aral\u0131klar\u0131ndan de\u011fil; ABD dolar\u0131 (USD) ve \u00c7in yuan\u0131 (CNY) likiditesinden, yani para arz\u0131 ve faiz politikalar\u0131ndan etkileniyor.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1279\" data-end=\"1399\">Ge\u00e7mi\u015f bo\u011fa piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n da zamanlamayla de\u011fil, para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde sona erdi\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1401\" data-end=\"1428\">Bu D\u00f6ng\u00fc Neden Farkl\u0131?<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1430\" data-end=\"1513\">Hayes, mevcut d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn di\u011ferlerinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 temel fakt\u00f6rle a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1515\" data-end=\"1888\">\n<li data-start=\"1515\" data-end=\"1649\">\n<p data-start=\"1517\" data-end=\"1649\">ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Fed\u2019in Ters Repo (Reverse Repo) program\u0131ndan 2,5 trilyon dolar \u00e7ekerek piyasaya ek likidite sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1650\" data-end=\"1778\">\n<p data-start=\"1652\" data-end=\"1778\">ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc azaltmak amac\u0131yla \u201cdaha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d stratejisini benimsiyor.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1779\" data-end=\"1888\">\n<p data-start=\"1781\" data-end=\"1888\">Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kredi verme kapasitesini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in d\u00fczenlemelerin gev\u015fetilmesi planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1890\" data-end=\"2106\">Ayr\u0131ca, enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 hedefin \u00fczerindeyken ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indirimlerine yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131. CME vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %94, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ise %80 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2108\" data-end=\"2155\">Bitcoin D\u00f6ng\u00fclerini Asl\u0131nda Ne Belirliyor?<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2157\" data-end=\"2250\">Hayes, Bitcoin\u2019in tarihsel bo\u011fa piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 parasal geni\u015fleme d\u00f6nemine ba\u011fl\u0131yor:<\/p>\n<ol data-start=\"2252\" data-end=\"2751\">\n<li data-start=\"2252\" data-end=\"2402\">\n<p data-start=\"2255\" data-end=\"2402\">\u0130lk bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 (2013) \u2013 Fed\u2019in parasal geni\u015fleme program\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ba\u015flad\u0131, her iki \u00fclke likiditeyi k\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sona erdi.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2403\" data-end=\"2568\">\n<p data-start=\"2406\" data-end=\"2568\">\u201cICO d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d (2017) \u2013 \u00c7in\u2019in kredi geni\u015flemesi ve yuan deval\u00fcasyonu etkili oldu. Ancak \u00c7in kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yava\u015flat\u0131nca ve dolar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131nca piyasa \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2569\" data-end=\"2751\">\n<p data-start=\"2572\" data-end=\"2751\">\u201cCOVID-19 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d (2020\u20132021) \u2013 Sadece ABD\u2019nin dolar likiditesiyle desteklendi, \u00c7in ise bu d\u00f6nemde temkinli kald\u0131. Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikas\u0131na d\u00f6nmesiyle d\u00f6ng\u00fc sona erdi.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Son dakika kripto para haberleri i\u00e7in<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinmuhendisihaber\">\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">hemen t\u0131kla<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kripto d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konular\u0131ndan biri olan \u201c4 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bitcoin d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d art\u0131k tarihe kar\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilir. BitMEX\u2019in kurucu orta\u011f\u0131 Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin fiyat hareketlerinin san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi yar\u0131lanma (halving) periyotlar\u0131yla de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131yla belirlendi\u011fini savunuyor. \u201c4 Y\u0131ll\u0131k D\u00f6ng\u00fc Bu Kez \u0130\u015fe Yaramayacak\u201d Hayes, son blog yaz\u0131s\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclere bakarak bu bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n da<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":167062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,1512],"tags":[10109,12,8411,21378,207,5482,2229,9649],"class_list":["post-175493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-haber","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analiz","tag-bitcoin-dongusu","tag-btc","tag-donald-trump","tag-halving","tag-yarilanma"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.8 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arthur Hayes\u2019e G\u00f6re 4 Y\u0131ll\u0131k Bitcoin D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc Art\u0131k Ge\u00e7erli De\u011fil! - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Kripto d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konular\u0131ndan biri olan 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