{"id":166189,"date":"2025-08-19T14:00:36","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T11:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=166189"},"modified":"2025-08-19T14:35:53","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T11:35:53","slug":"jackson-hole-toplantisinda-powellin-konusmasindan-ne-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/jackson-hole-toplantisinda-powellin-konusmasindan-ne-bekleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Jackson Hole Toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Powell\u2019\u0131n Konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan Ne Bekleniyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Her y\u0131l A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin Wyoming<\/strong> eyaletindeki Jackson Hole<\/strong> <\/a>kasabas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in en kritik etkinliklerden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Peki bu hafta cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek ana temas\u0131 \u201cGe\u00e7i\u015f D\u00f6neminde \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131\u201d olan Jackson Hole<\/strong> toplant\u0131s\u0131nda neler ya\u015fanabilir, olas\u0131 senaryolar nedir? Sizler i\u00e7in inceledik.<\/p>\n

Jackson Hole Toplant\u0131s\u0131 Nedir?<\/h2>\n

K\u00fcresel finans d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ilgiyle takip edilen Jackson Hole toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong>, her y\u0131l Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019nde d\u00fczenlenen \u00f6nemli bir ekonomik bulu\u015fmad\u0131r. Geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131 temsilcileri, \u00f6nde gelen ekonomistler ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar bu toplant\u0131da bir araya gelir.<\/p>\n

Genellikle A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda<\/strong> ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen etkinlikte, para politikalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomik dengeler ve gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentiler ele al\u0131n\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz politikalar\u0131na ve likidite stratejilerine dair olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin g\u00fcndeme gelmesi, toplant\u0131y\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir hale getirir. Bu nedenle Jackson Hole<\/strong>, sadece ABD i\u00e7in de\u011fil, d\u00fcnya genelinde piyasalar i\u00e7in de y\u00f6n g\u00f6sterici bir toplant\u0131 olarak kabul edilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Powell\u2019\u0131n Son Jackson Hole Konu\u015fmas\u0131<\/h2>\n

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED)<\/strong> Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell’\u0131n<\/strong>, 22 A\u011fustos Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fman\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye saatiyle 17.00 civar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu konu\u015fma her y\u0131l klasik olarak yap\u0131lsa da, bu defa piyasalar i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Powell\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131<\/strong> \u00f6ncesinde a\u00e7\u0131k bir faiz indirimi sinyali verip vermeyece\u011fini merak ediyor.<\/p>\n

Powell i\u00e7in bu konu\u015fma ayr\u0131ca \u00f6zel bir anlam ta\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi gelecek y\u0131l sona erecek olan Powell, Jackson Hole<\/strong> sahnesinde son kez \u00f6nemli mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 verecek. Piyasa akt\u00f6rleri, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda ya\u015fanan zay\u0131flama ile enflasyondaki kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n aras\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir denge kuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek istiyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Zay\u0131flayan \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131<\/h2>\n

Son gelen veriler, ABD\u2019de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc<\/strong> piyasas\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fumaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Temmuz ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam<\/strong> rakamlar\u0131 beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca May\u0131s ve Haziran verileri de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. \u0130\u015fsizlik<\/strong> oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 2021\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, FED\u2019in ikinci temel hedefi olan \u201ctam istihdam\u201d a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan endi\u015fe yarat\u0131yor. Piyasalarda bu nedenle \u201cPowell i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flamaya dikkat \u00e7ekip faiz indirimi i\u00e7in ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakacak m\u0131?\u201d sorusu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon Riski H\u00e2l\u00e2 Masada<\/h2>\n

\u00d6te yandan FED\u2019in bir di\u011fer temel g\u00f6revi olan fiyat istikrar\u0131<\/strong> taraf\u0131nda da riskler devam ediyor. Son gelen \u00dcFE verileri<\/strong> son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6zellikle tarifeler kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. T\u00dcFE beklentilere paralel gelse de, \u00e7ekirdek tarafta y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Powell\u2019\u0131n i\u015fi olduk\u00e7a zor. Bir yanda i\u015fsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 faiz indirimini gerekli k\u0131larken, di\u011fer yanda enflasyon<\/strong> riski faiz indirimi i\u00e7in temkinli olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

3 Olas\u0131 Senaryo<\/h2>\n

Powell\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in uzmanlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 olas\u0131 senaryo bulunuyor:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n

    Faiz \u0130ndirimi Sinyali Verebilir<\/strong>
    Powell, zay\u0131flayan istihdam verilerini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde i\u015faret edebilir. Piyasalarda \u015fimdiden bu y\u00f6nde %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde beklenti var.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    Enflasyon Nedeniyle G\u00fcvercin Olmayabilir<\/strong>
    Di\u011fer ihtimal ise Powell\u2019\u0131n enflasyondaki risklere vurgu yaparak piyasalar\u0131n faiz indirimi beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesi. Bu senaryoda Powell, \u201chen\u00fcz enflasyon hedefiyle uyumlu bir noktada de\u011filiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    Veri Ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na Devam Edebilir<\/strong>
    En olas\u0131 senaryolardan biri ise Powell\u2019\u0131n net bir y\u00f6nlendirme yapmadan, gelecek verileri bekleyece\u011fini vurgulamas\u0131. Bu durumda Powell, \u201cbir sonraki istihdam ve enflasyon verilerini g\u00f6rmeden karar vermek istemiyoruz\u201d diyebilir.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u015eahin mi, G\u00fcvercin mi?<\/h2>\n

    Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Powell, Jackson Hole<\/strong> konu\u015fmas\u0131nda beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fcvercin bir ton benimsemi\u015f ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 50 baz puanl\u0131k s\u00fcrpriz faiz indirimi gelmi\u015fti. Ancak bu y\u0131l tablo farkl\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l istihdam azal\u0131rken enflasyon da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. Bu kez ise istihdam zay\u0131flarken enflasyon art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

    Bu nedenle piyasalarda bu defa s\u00fcrpriz bir g\u00fcvercin Powell konu\u015fmas\u0131 beklemek riskli olabilir. Muhtemelen daha temkinli bir Powell g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Yine de, mevcut faizlerin %4,25 \u2013 4,50 seviyesinde olmas\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin %2,8 d\u00fczeyinde bulunmas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de<\/strong> 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini masada tutuyor.<\/p>\n

    Faiz \u0130ndirimi Beklentileri Ne Y\u00f6nde?<\/h2>\n

    CME Group FedWatch Tool<\/strong> verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalarda faiz indirimi beklentileri olduk\u00e7a netle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu, Fed\u2019in bu toplant\u0131da 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim <\/strong>yapma ihtimalini %83,1 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, faizin mevcut seviyede sabit kalma <\/strong>olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %16,9 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan, daha agresif bir ad\u0131m olan 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim <\/strong>ihtimali ise %0 seviyesinde, yani piyasalar b\u00f6yle bir senaryoyu \u015fu anda hi\u00e7 beklemiyor.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Son Dakika kripto para haberleri i\u00e7in\u00a0hemen t\u0131kla<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Her y\u0131l A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin Wyoming eyaletindeki Jackson Hole kasabas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in en kritik etkinliklerden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Peki bu hafta cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek ana temas\u0131 \u201cGe\u00e7i\u015f D\u00f6neminde \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131\u201d olan Jackson Hole toplant\u0131s\u0131nda neler ya\u015fanabilir, olas\u0131 senaryolar nedir? Sizler i\u00e7in inceledik. Jackson Hole Toplant\u0131s\u0131 Nedir? K\u00fcresel finans d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ilgiyle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":166199,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9692,1512],"tags":[17006,14897,5742,8082,6037,32209,15817,33158,33160,33159,32974,6109,8999,4765,15864,4441,13412],"class_list":["post-166189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","category-haber","tag-abd-merkez-bankasi-fed","tag-amerika","tag-cme-group","tag-ekonomi","tag-enflasyon","tag-eylul","tag-faiz-indirimi","tag-faiz-toplantisi","tag-fedwatch-tool","tag-guvercin","tag-isgucu","tag-issizlik","tag-jerome-powell","tag-sahin","tag-tarim-disi-istihdam","tag-ufe","tag-wyoming"],"yoast_head":"\nJackson Hole Toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Powell\u2019\u0131n Konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan Ne Bekleniyor? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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