{"id":16442,"date":"2022-03-06T21:30:06","date_gmt":"2022-03-06T18:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=16442"},"modified":"2022-03-06T21:30:06","modified_gmt":"2022-03-06T18:30:06","slug":"fedin-sikilastirma-dongusu-altin-icin-boga-mi-ayi-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fedin-sikilastirma-dongusu-altin-icin-boga-mi-ayi-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"FED\u2019in S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc: Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in Bo\u011fa m\u0131 Ay\u0131 m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bu ay Fed\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Usta analist Arkadiusz Sieron\u2019a g\u00f6re, san\u0131lan\u0131n aksine, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz olmas\u0131 gerekmiyor. Analist tarihsel perspektiften s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine bak\u0131yor. Arkadiusz Sieron\u2019un ufuk a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Coinm\u00fchendisi.com<\/strong> okuyucular\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlad\u0131k.<\/p>\n

S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde alt\u0131n\u0131n performans\u0131 nas\u0131ld\u0131?<\/b><\/p>\n

Mart 2022 \u2013 Fed\u2019in niceliksel gev\u015femeyi sona erdirmesi ve bir pandemi krizinden kurtulma s\u0131ras\u0131nda ilk kez federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Kalk\u0131\u015ftan sonra, Fed muhtemelen devasa bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye ba\u015flayacak ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 kez daha art\u0131racak. B\u00f6ylece, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f ger\u00e7ek oluyor. Alt\u0131n soru \u015fu: Sar\u0131 metal bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda nas\u0131l davranacak?<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakal\u0131m. 2015-2019\u2019un son s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a olumluydu. Sar\u0131 metal bu d\u00f6nemde 1.068 dolardan 1.320 dolara y\u00fckseldi (burada ayl\u0131k ortalamalar\u0131 kastediyorum), a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi gibi yakla\u015f\u0131k %24 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Ger\u00e7ekten \u00f6nemli olan, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f ay\u0131 olan Aral\u0131k 2015\u2019te dibe vurmu\u015f olmas\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn bir tekrar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrsek, alt\u0131n 1.800 dolardan ayr\u0131lmal\u0131 ve kuzeye, cennetteki bo\u011falar diyar\u0131na gitmeli. Ancak Aral\u0131k 2015\u2019te reel faizler zirveye ula\u015f\u0131rken, Ocak 2016\u2019da ABD dolar\u0131 yerel zirveyi buldu. Bu fakt\u00f6rler, birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n f\u0131rlamas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu, ancak bu sefer yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131 gerekmiyor.<\/p>\n

Biraz daha derine inelim. Daha \u00f6nceki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc 2004 ile 2006 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve Fed\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 400 baz puandan fazla art\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bug\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez bir \u015fey olan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in de harika bir zamand\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011fin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, sar\u0131 metalin fiyat\u0131 (ayl\u0131k ortalama) 392 dolardan 634 dolara, yani %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u0131pk\u0131 bug\u00fcn oldu\u011fu gibi, o zaman da enflasyon y\u00fckseliyordu, ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda \u015fu anda eksik olan bir fakt\u00f6r olan ABD dolar\u0131 endeksinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k d\u00f6nemiydi.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Hatta biraz daha ge\u00e7mi\u015fe gidelim. Fed, 1994-1995 ve 1999-2000 d\u00f6nemlerinde federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fckseltti. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik, bu durumlar\u0131n alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a n\u00f6tr oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130lkinde alt\u0131n yatay i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ikincisinde ise d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, y\u00fckseldi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, t\u0131pk\u0131 2015\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi, 1999\u2019un ba\u015flar\u0131ndaki kalk\u0131\u015ftan hemen sonra sar\u0131 metal dibe vurdu.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

1980\u2019lerde iki ana s\u0131kma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc vard\u0131 ve her ikisi de sar\u0131 metal i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a olumsuzdu. 1983-1984\u2019te alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131, y\u00fckselen enflasyona ra\u011fmen 491 dolardan 348 dolara %29 d\u00fc\u015ferken, 1988-1989\u2019da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6rebilece\u011finiz gibi %12 daha d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Sonunda zamanda geriye yolculuk yaparak B\u00fcy\u00fck Stagflasyon d\u00f6nemine gittik! 1970\u2019lerde, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablonun g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri alt\u0131n i\u00e7in genel olarak olumluydu. 1972\u2019den 1974\u2019e kadar olan d\u00f6nemde, sar\u0131 metalin ortalama ayl\u0131k fiyat\u0131 48 dolardan 172 dolara, yani %257\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. 1977-1980 aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma alt\u0131n i\u00e7in daha da iyi bir d\u00f6nemdi. Fiyat\u0131 132 dolardan 675 dolara, yani %411\u2019e f\u0131rlad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, 1980-1981\u2019deki parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, sar\u0131 metalin daha sonra 409 dolara d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle pek olumlu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

D\u00f6ng\u00fclerin alt\u0131n \u00fczerindeki etkisinin analizi<\/b><\/p>\n

2022 alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in tarihsel analizimizin etkileri nelerdir? Birincisi, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc alt\u0131n i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc olmak zorunda de\u011fil. Bu raporda, alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00f6rd\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f, ikisi n\u00f6tr ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmak \u00fczere dokuz s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc inceledim. \u0130kincisi, t\u00fcm olumsuz vakalar 1980\u2019lerde meydana gelirken, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en son iki d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumluydu. 2022 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc i\u00e7in iyiye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, kilit nokta, her zaman oldu\u011fu gibi, daha geni\u015f makroekonomik ba\u011flamd\u0131r. Yani ABD dolar\u0131, enflasyon ve reel faiz oranlar\u0131nda neler oldu\u011fu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 1970\u2019lerde Fed, y\u00fckselen enflasyonun ortas\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyordu. Ancak, Mart 1980\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE oran\u0131 zirve yapt\u0131 ve uzun bir dezenflasyon d\u00f6nemi ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu nedenle, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri 1970\u2019lerde genel olarak olumlu, 1980\u2019lerde ise olumsuzdu.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, y\u00fczeyden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fcksek enflasyonun e\u015flik etti\u011fi mevcut s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak enflasyonun bu y\u0131l zirve yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu olursa, reel faiz oranlar\u0131 daha da y\u00fckselebilir ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

L\u00fctfen ger\u00e7ek federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131n rekor d\u00fczeyde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu unutmay\u0131n. Enflasyon zirveye ula\u015f\u0131rsa, alt\u0131n bo\u011falar\u0131n\u0131n tek umudu, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn tarihsel olarak bir ekonomik yava\u015flama veya durgunluk taraf\u0131ndan takip edildi\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ya ABD dolar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi (k\u00fcresel toparlanma ve ECB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 aras\u0131nda) ya da faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n izledi\u011fi yol hakk\u0131ndaki piyasa beklentilerinde g\u00fcvercin bir de\u011fi\u015fim olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bu ay Fed\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Usta analist Arkadiusz Sieron\u2019a g\u00f6re, san\u0131lan\u0131n aksine, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":16443,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,7],"tags":[2065,2066],"class_list":["post-16442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coin","category-nft","tag-sari-metal","tag-sikilastirma"],"yoast_head":"\nFED\u2019in S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc: Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in Bo\u011fa m\u0131 Ay\u0131 m\u0131? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/fedin-sikilastirma-dongusu-altin-icin-boga-mi-ayi-mi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FED\u2019in S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc: Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in Bo\u011fa m\u0131 Ay\u0131 m\u0131?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bu ay Fed\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 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