{"id":137582,"date":"2024-10-04T17:00:48","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T14:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=137582"},"modified":"2024-10-04T11:11:13","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T08:11:13","slug":"kalshi-ceosu-mansour-tahmin-piyasalari-daha-iyi-calisiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/kalshi-ceosu-mansour-tahmin-piyasalari-daha-iyi-calisiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Kalshi CEO\u2019su Mansour: “Tahmin Piyasalar\u0131 Daha \u0130yi \u00c7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kalshi CEO\u2019su Tarek Mansour\u2019a<\/strong> g\u00f6re tahmin piyasalar\u0131, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmede anketlerden daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc anketlerin do\u011frulu\u011fu zamanla azalm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Mansour bir r\u00f6portajda \u015funlar\u0131 belirtti: “Tahmin piyasalar\u0131 daha iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; ger\u00e7ekten de \u00f6yle<\/em>.”<\/p>\n

Mansour, anketlerin iki haftaya kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini, ancak Kalshi<\/strong> gibi tahmin piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek zamanl\u0131 veriler sundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde se\u00e7im anketleri, \u00f6zellikle 2016 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinde Hillary Clinton\u2019un kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesi ve ard\u0131ndan 2020’de Donald Trump’\u0131n pop\u00fclaritesini yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplamas\u0131 gibi hatalar yapt\u0131. CNBC\u2019nin haberine g\u00f6re bu y\u0131lki se\u00e7imde anket\u00e7iler, daha do\u011fru sonu\u00e7lar elde etmek i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli y\u00f6ntemler kullan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Mansour, kutupla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve \u00f6nyarg\u0131l\u0131 anketleri bu hatalar i\u00e7in su\u00e7lad\u0131. Tahmin piyasalar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda Mansour, “Paran\u0131z\u0131n riskte oldu\u011fu durumlarda yalan s\u00f6ylemek \u00e7ok daha zordur<\/em>” diye ekledi.<\/p>\n

“Ger\u00e7ekten d\u00fcr\u00fcst oluyorsunuz ve bu y\u00fczden bu piyasalar \u00e7ok iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor<\/em>” dedi Mansour.<\/p>\n

\"Kalshi
Kalshi CEO’su Tarek Mansour<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bu hafta Kalshi<\/strong>, bir temyiz mahkemesinin tahmin piyasas\u0131nda se\u00e7im bahislerine izin vermesiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck bir zafer kazand\u0131. Bu, ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu’nun (CFTC) Kalshi\u2019nin<\/strong> se\u00e7im s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini halka sunmas\u0131n\u0131n “kamu yarar\u0131na ayk\u0131r\u0131” oldu\u011funu belirtti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l sonra geldi. Kalshi<\/strong> daha sonra dava a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Columbia B\u00f6lgesi ABD B\u00f6lge Mahkemesi’nden Yarg\u0131\u00e7 Jia M. Cobb, ge\u00e7en ay CFTC’nin Kalshi’nin<\/strong> bu s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri yay\u0131nlama teklifine itiraz etti\u011finde yetkisini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ajans daha sonra h\u0131zla karara itiraz etti, ancak temyiz karar\u0131 bozuldu.<\/p>\n

\u015eu anda Kalshi<\/strong>, kullan\u0131c\u0131lara ABD Temsilciler Meclisi veya Senatosu’nu hangi siyasi partinin kontrol edece\u011fi \u00fczerine bahis yapma imkan\u0131 sunuyor. Mansour, Kalshi’nin<\/strong> Per\u015fembe veya Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kazanan \u00fczerine para yat\u0131rabilecek bir piyasa olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\u0130lginizi \u00c7ekebilir: Tayvan Kripto \u015eirketlerine Yeni AML Kay\u0131t Zorunlulu\u011fu Getirdi<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 milyar dolarl\u0131k bahisle, rakip blockchain tabanl\u0131 bahis piyasas\u0131 Polymarket, yakla\u015fan ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k bir piyasaya sahip.<\/p>\n

\u00c7e\u015fitli siyasi yar\u0131\u015flar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fczerine bahis yapmaya ili\u015fkin olarak, CFTC se\u00e7im g\u00fcvenli\u011fi konusunda endi\u015felerini dile getirdi. CFTC ba\u015f hukuk dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Rob Schwartz, ge\u00e7en ay bir duru\u015fmada se\u00e7imler \u00fczerine bahis oynaman\u0131n se\u00e7im b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc tehlikeye att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Hen\u00fcz y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmemi\u015f olsa da, h\u00fck\u00fcmet siyasi etkinlik bahislerini yasaklamay\u0131 \u00f6neren bir d\u00fczenleme \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Mansour, CFTC’nin endi\u015felerini “temelsiz” olarak nitelendirdi. Se\u00e7im alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmenin “mekanik olarak imkans\u0131z” oldu\u011funu savundu. \u00d6rne\u011fin, biri halka bir aday hakk\u0131nda yanl\u0131\u015f bilgi yaymak i\u00e7in milyonlarca dolar harcarsa, bu fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde bir veya iki oran\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir, ancak arbitrajc\u0131lar bunu dakikalar i\u00e7inde eski haline getirir.<\/p>\n

Mansour “Bu piyasalar asl\u0131nda sisteme daha fazla do\u011fruluk getiriyor. Anketleri a\u015f\u0131yorlar<\/em>.” diye ekledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kalshi CEO\u2019su Tarek Mansour\u2019a g\u00f6re tahmin piyasalar\u0131, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmede anketlerden daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc anketlerin do\u011frulu\u011fu zamanla azalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Mansour bir r\u00f6portajda \u015funlar\u0131 belirtti: “Tahmin piyasalar\u0131 daha iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; ger\u00e7ekten de \u00f6yle.” Mansour, anketlerin iki haftaya kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini, ancak Kalshi gibi tahmin piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek zamanl\u0131 veriler sundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde se\u00e7im anketleri, \u00f6zellikle 2016 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":137416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1512],"tags":[17404,18022,18023],"class_list":["post-137582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haber","tag-kalshi","tag-kalshi-ceosu-tarek-mansour","tag-terek-mansour"],"yoast_head":"\nKalshi CEO\u2019su Mansour: "Tahmin Piyasalar\u0131 Daha \u0130yi \u00c7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor" - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tahmin piyasalar\u0131, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmede anketlerden daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131. Kalshi CEO\u2019su Mansour, bu sistemin daha do\u011fru oldu\u011funu savunuyor.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/kalshi-ceosu-mansour-tahmin-piyasalari-daha-iyi-calisiyor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kalshi CEO\u2019su Mansour: "Tahmin Piyasalar\u0131 Daha \u0130yi \u00c7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tahmin piyasalar\u0131, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmede anketlerden daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131. 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