{"id":133644,"date":"2024-08-23T11:30:33","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T08:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=133644"},"modified":"2024-08-25T09:51:46","modified_gmt":"2024-08-25T06:51:46","slug":"jerome-powell-jackson-holeda-faiz-indirimi-sinyali-mi-verecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/jerome-powell-jackson-holeda-faiz-indirimi-sinyali-mi-verecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole’da Faiz \u0130ndirimi Sinyali mi Verecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Genellikle \u201cFed s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d olarak kabul edilen gazeteci Nick Timirao taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler, Fed<\/a> Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell<\/strong> bug\u00fcn Jackson Hole sempozyumunda merakla beklenen konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yapmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, Fed’in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde para politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in iki farkl\u0131 rota d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Timirao, Fed’in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eyrek puan indirerek yava\u015f bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi ve ekonominin gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki durumuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak h\u0131z\u0131 ayarlamay\u0131 tercih edebilece\u011fini belirtti. Ekonomi daha keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterirse, Fed daha sonra faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 2024 bahar\u0131na kadar %3 civar\u0131na getirmek i\u00e7in yar\u0131m puanl\u0131k daha b\u00fcy\u00fck kesintilere gidebilir.<\/p>\n

Faiz \u0130ndiriminde Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lan Zorluklar<\/h2>\n

Timirao, ana zorluklardan birinin, Fed’in genellikle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir faiz indirimi uygulamak i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek bir e\u015fi\u011fe sahip olmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti. B\u00f6yle bir karar, 2001’de oldu\u011fu gibi ekonomik verilerde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ya da 2007’de oldu\u011fu gibi kredi piyasalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir stresi gerektirecektir. Fed, 1995, 1998 ve 2019 gibi \u00f6nceki durumlarda daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimseyerek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k indirimler yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130lginizi \u00c7ekebilir: Nvidia Davas\u0131 Kripto Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde Yasal F\u0131rt\u0131na Korkusu Yarat\u0131yor<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Bu, Fed’i Timirao’nun “Catch-22” olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir durumla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Yetkililerin, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in mevcut kurallar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa dair ikna edici kan\u0131tlara sahip olmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. Ancak bu veriler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, resesyonu \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok ge\u00e7 olabilir.<\/p>\n

Powell’\u0131n Konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00d6ncesi Piyasa Beklentisi<\/h2>\n

Powell’\u0131n<\/strong> konu\u015fmas\u0131, Fed’in stratejisini de\u011fi\u015ftirip de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 vermek i\u00e7in dikkatle incelenecek ve b\u00f6ylece enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme gereklili\u011fi ile i\u015fsizli\u011fi art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki dengeyi sa\u011flamak ama\u00e7lanacak. Piyasa oyuncular\u0131 y\u00f6n beklerken, Powell’\u0131n<\/strong> s\u00f6zleri Fed’in artan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n “da\u011f ini\u015fi”ni nas\u0131l y\u00f6netece\u011fini ve ekonomik istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken bu s\u00fcreci nas\u0131l dengeleyece\u011fini g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon ve ya\u015fam maliyetinin \u00f6n planda oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde, Fed’in %5.25 ile %5.50 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen faiz oran\u0131, \u015fu anda 23 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde talebi azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank’\u0131n ba\u015f ABD ekonomisti Matthew Luzzetti, “Muhtemelen yak\u0131n zamanda bir faiz indirimi sinyali verecektir ancak, bu faiz indiriminin muhtemel b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtmeyecektir<\/em>.” dedi.<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank’tan Luzzetti, Powell’\u0131n<\/strong> Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc herhangi bir hamleyi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde desteklemesinin pek olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 25 veya 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim yapma karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay gelen verilerin durumuna ve en \u00f6nemlisi bir sonraki istihdam raporunun nas\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Daha zay\u0131f bir istihdam verisi, muhtemelen daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yar\u0131m puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r, dedi.<\/p>\n

Jackson Hole konferans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Fed’in Eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131ndaki bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce, 6 Eyl\u00fcl’de bir sonraki i\u015f verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Genellikle \u201cFed s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d olarak kabul edilen gazeteci Nick Timirao taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell bug\u00fcn Jackson Hole sempozyumunda merakla beklenen konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yapmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, Fed’in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde para politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in iki farkl\u0131 rota d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Timirao, Fed’in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eyrek puan indirerek yava\u015f bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi ve ekonominin gelecek<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":133646,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9692,1512],"tags":[413,10127,10141,8999],"class_list":["post-133644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","category-haber","tag-fed","tag-fed-faiz","tag-jackson-hole","tag-jerome-powell"],"yoast_head":"\nJerome Powell, Jackson Hole'da Faiz \u0130ndirimi Sinyali mi Verecek? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Powell'\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131, Fed'in faiz indirim stratejisini ve ekonomik istikrar\u0131 koruma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyabilir.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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