{"id":133112,"date":"2024-08-19T10:00:11","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T07:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/?p=133112"},"modified":"2024-08-19T10:25:30","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T07:25:30","slug":"trump-harris-ile-berabere-bahisler-kizisiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/trump-harris-ile-berabere-bahisler-kizisiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, Harris ile Berabere, Bahisler K\u0131z\u0131\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hafta sonu boyunca, da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015f tahmin piyasas\u0131 Polymarket’te<\/a> Donald Trump’\u0131n<\/strong> oranlar\u0131 %44’ten %47’ye y\u00fckseldi ve eski Ba\u015fkan, rakibi Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Kamala Harris ile sanal olarak ba\u015fa ba\u015f duruma geldi; Harris’in oranlar\u0131 da %54’ten %51’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sal\u0131ncak eyaletler ve di\u011fer ilgili sonu\u00e7lar i\u00e7in k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck piyasalarda milyonlarca dolarla birlikte, Polymarket kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 ulusal yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n sonucuna yakla\u015f\u0131k 630 milyon dolar bahis koydu.<\/p>\n

Garip bir \u015fekilde, son anketler Harris’in \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, Trump’\u0131n<\/strong> Polymarket’teki \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc artt\u0131. Harris, Rasmussen Research’ten al\u0131nan en son anketlere g\u00f6re, Michigan ve Pennsylvania gibi \u00f6nemli sal\u0131ncak eyaletlerinde \u00f6nde gidiyor; bu anketler, muhafazak\u00e2r bir e\u011filim ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ele\u015ftirilmi\u015fti. RealClear Politics’in ulusal anketlerinin ortalamas\u0131nda Harris 1,5 puan \u00f6nde; Economist’in anket ortalamas\u0131nda ise Harris 2,7 puan \u00f6nde.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, di\u011fer tahmin piyasalar\u0131 Polymarket’teki Trump<\/strong> y\u00fckseli\u015fini hen\u00fcz g\u00f6stermedi. Harris, Trump’a<\/strong> g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 puan \u00f6nde; ikinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa olan ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 67 milyon dolar bahsi bulunan Betfair, bu durumu g\u00f6steriyor. 34 milyon dolar bahsi bulunan ve ABD vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n eri\u015fimine a\u00e7\u0131k olan nadir sitelerden biri olan PredictIt, Harris’i Trump’a<\/strong> g\u00f6re neredeyse 10 puan \u00f6nde g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130lginizi \u00c7ekebilir: Lista DAO (LISTA) Teknik Analizi: Temel Bilgiler<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Matematiksel modeller de Harris’in hala \u00f6nde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Polymarket’teki oranlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 artan Five Thirty Eight’in kurucusu ve Polymarket dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Nate Silver’\u0131n se\u00e7im tahmin modeline g\u00f6re, Harris’in se\u00e7im kolejini kazanma \u015fans\u0131 %53,5 iken, Trump’\u0131n<\/strong> \u015fans\u0131 %45,9; son iki g\u00fcnde %0,7’lik bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f durumda. Silver, Harris’in elinin biraz daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu, ancak yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n “temelde %50\/%50” oldu\u011funu savunuyor. Economist’in projeksiyonuna g\u00f6re Harris 272 se\u00e7im oyu al\u0131rken, Trump<\/strong> 266 oy alacak.<\/p>\n

New Yorker ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son r\u00f6portajda, New York Times’\u0131n ba\u015f siyasi analisti ve anket b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ba\u015fkan\u0131 Nate Cohn, yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n anketlerini tart\u0131\u015farak, “May\u0131s ay\u0131nda, Trump’\u0131<\/strong> battleground eyaletlerinde be\u015f puan \u00f6nde g\u00f6steriyorduk. \u015eu anda Harris’i iki puan \u00f6nde g\u00f6steriyoruz; bu nedenle, fark yedi puan. Erkekler ve beyaz se\u00e7menler aras\u0131nda Harris i\u00e7in daha az iyile\u015fme g\u00f6steriyoruz, ancak gen\u00e7 ve beyaz olmayan se\u00e7menler ile kad\u0131nlar aras\u0131nda Harris i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u0131mlar g\u00f6steriyoruz”<\/em> dedi.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda, Polymarket’in a\u00e7\u0131k ilgisi, tarihindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kurtuldu. Site, bu ay platformunda i\u015flem yapmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen ABD vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu k\u0131rk binden fazla ziyaret g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hafta sonu boyunca, da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015f tahmin piyasas\u0131 Polymarket’te Donald Trump’\u0131n oranlar\u0131 %44’ten %47’ye y\u00fckseldi ve eski Ba\u015fkan, rakibi Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Kamala Harris ile sanal olarak ba\u015fa ba\u015f duruma geldi; Harris’in oranlar\u0131 da %54’ten %51’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Sal\u0131ncak eyaletler ve di\u011fer ilgili sonu\u00e7lar i\u00e7in k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck piyasalarda milyonlarca dolarla birlikte, Polymarket kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 ulusal yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n sonucuna yakla\u015f\u0131k 630 milyon dolar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":133140,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1512],"tags":[16677,5482,15858,14909],"class_list":["post-133112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haber","tag-abd-2024-secimleri","tag-donald-trump","tag-kamala-harris","tag-polymarket"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump, Harris ile Berabere, Bahisler K\u0131z\u0131\u015f\u0131yor - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Polymarket'te Trump'\u0131n oranlar\u0131 'ye y\u00fckseldi, Harris'e olduk\u00e7a yakla\u015ft\u0131. 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