{"id":12929,"date":"2022-02-13T03:12:06","date_gmt":"2022-02-13T00:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=12929"},"modified":"2022-02-13T03:12:06","modified_gmt":"2022-02-13T00:12:06","slug":"2022-icin-yeni-jeopolitik-tehditler-altin-tehlikede-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/2022-icin-yeni-jeopolitik-tehditler-altin-tehlikede-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"2022 \u0130\u00e7in Yeni Jeopolitik Tehditler: Alt\u0131n Tehlikede Mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00d6nceki y\u0131llarda oldu\u011fu gibi, 2022\u2019de de jeopolitik gerilimlerin piyasalar\u0131 etkilemesi muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131m uzman\u0131 olan Arkadiusz Siero\u0144\u2019a g\u00f6re, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak alt\u0131n muhtemelen ihmal edilmeyecek. Yat\u0131r\u0131m uzman\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin piyasalar ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkilerine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerini, kendi anlat\u0131m\u0131yla coinmuhendisi.com<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0okuyucular\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlad\u0131k.<\/p>\n

ABD askeri m\u00fcdahalesi, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla destekleyebilir<\/b><\/p>\n

Dejavu mu ya\u015f\u0131yoruz? Ben sadece birini ya\u015f\u0131yorum. Muhtemelen hat\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z gibi, Ocak 2020, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Kuzey Kore sorunu gibi canl\u0131 jeopolitik risklerin oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemdi. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Genel Sekreteri Antonio Guterres, bu gerilimleri 2017\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviye olarak nitelendirdi. \u015eimdi, 2022\u2019de yine buraday\u0131z \u2013 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik tehditler var.<\/p>\n

Rusya ile Ukrayna aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 herkes biliyor. Eski \u00fclke, Aral\u0131k 2021\u2019e kadar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131nda 100.000\u2019den fazla asker ve askeri te\u00e7hizat toplad\u0131 ve bu, 2014\u2019te K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n ilhak\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek kuvvet seferberli\u011fini temsil ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, NATO Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019ya gemiler ve sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131 g\u00f6nderdi ve kuvvetleri beklemeye ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rus i\u015fgali ve askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski (ABD ve NATO\u2019nun tepkisini tetikleyebilir) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 endi\u015felendirdi ve bu da muhtemelen alt\u0131n i\u00e7in bir miktar g\u00fcvenli liman talebini te\u015fvik etti.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, sar\u0131 metal deste\u011fi k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011fin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, alt\u0131n, K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n ilhak\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi \u015eubat-Mart 2014\u2019te y\u00fckseldi. Y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u015eubat ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda (o zamanlar ba\u015fka fakt\u00f6rler de s\u00f6z konusuydu), K\u0131r\u0131m krizinden \u00e7ok \u00f6nce ba\u015flad\u0131 ve Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda h\u0131zla sona erdi. Alt\u0131n uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Elbette bu sefer farkl\u0131 olabilir, \u00f6zellikle de Bat\u0131 Ukrayna\u2019ya yard\u0131m etmeye 2014\u2019e g\u00f6re daha haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in. Ancak Almanya ve Rusya aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n ekonomik ba\u011flar birli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kan\u0131n\u0131n son damlas\u0131na kadar Ukrayna i\u00e7in sava\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u015f\u00fcpheleniyorum (\u00f6zellikle \u00fclkenin NATO\u2019da bile olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse). Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fkenti Kiev\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7iliklerini bo\u015faltmaya \u015fimdiden ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bize bir \u015feyler s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, yaln\u0131zca \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski nedeniyle alt\u0131n sat\u0131n almasam da, ABD askeri m\u00fcdahalesinin marjinal olarak daha y\u00fcksek riski, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Pasifik krizi, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak destekleyebilir<\/b><\/p>\n

Arka planda par\u0131ldayan ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, \u00c7in\u2019in Tayvan\u2019\u0131 potansiyel bir i\u015fgali riskidir. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00c7in ile ada aras\u0131ndaki gerilim t\u0131rmand\u0131 ve baz\u0131 uzmanlar \u201cTek \u00c7in\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131n askeri olarak uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131n an meselesi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Tayvan her zaman \u00c7in i\u00e7in bir ba\u015f belas\u0131yd\u0131 ama \u00fclke bu konuda bir \u015fey yapamayacak kadar zay\u0131ft\u0131. Bununla birlikte, \u00c7in\u2019in askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc son y\u0131llarda radikal bir \u015fekilde geni\u015fledi.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6zellikle Tayvan\u2019\u0131n ABD ile askeri bir ittifak\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve Pasifik krizinin tedarik zinciri kesintilerini a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Bir ba\u015fka potansiyel y\u00fckseli\u015f fakt\u00f6r\u00fc, \u00c7in\u2019in askeri eylemlerine ili\u015fkin yak\u0131n tarihli herhangi bir sicil kayd\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Rusya\u2019n\u0131n askeri operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun tarihine ve eski Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ile olan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir belirsizlik olabilir.<\/p>\n

En k\u00f6t\u00fc durum senaryolar\u0131 i\u00e7in baz\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131klar yapmak ak\u0131ll\u0131ca olur<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00f6nemli bir siber sald\u0131r\u0131 olabilir. Biliyorum, neredeyse kli\u015fe geliyor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc herkes bu riske i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak bir\u00e7ok uzmana g\u00f6re pandemiden sonra bu en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehditlerden biri. Bu y\u0131l, Ukrayna h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin web sitelerine bir siber sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Kanada d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen bir siber olay g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ge\u00e7en ay ya\u015fanan i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klara tepki olarak h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131nda interneti kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kazakistan\u2019\u0131 da unutmayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n

Son olay, bir siber sald\u0131r\u0131dan ziyade dijital otoriterli\u011fin bir \u00f6rne\u011fi, ancak sonu\u00e7 ayn\u0131: \u0130nsanlar\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famlar\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck etkileri olan dijital fel\u00e7. Ger\u00e7ekten de, insanlar\u0131n internete eri\u015fimi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ne oldu\u011funu tahmin edin. Evet, komik k\u00f6pek yavrular\u0131yla en yeni meme\u2019ler i\u00e7in sosyal medyay\u0131 kontrol edemezler, ama bu en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun de\u011fil (ger\u00e7ekten!). En u\u011fursuz sonu\u00e7lardan biri, insanlar\u0131n dijital banka hesaplar\u0131na, yani g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde genellikle elektronik bi\u00e7imde olan paralar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funa eri\u015fiminin olmamas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Bu nedenle, en k\u00f6t\u00fc durum senaryolar\u0131 i\u00e7in baz\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131klar yapmak ve her zaman elinizde biraz nakit bulundurmak ak\u0131ll\u0131ca olur. Belki de bir miktar k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n, ancak itibari para birimleriyle yiyecek sat\u0131n alman\u0131n daha kolay olaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u015f\u00fcpheleniyorum! Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda kripto para birimlerinin muhtemelen hi\u00e7bir zaman alt\u0131n\u0131n yerini almayacak olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni. Son derece dijital d\u00fcnyam\u0131zda, somut bir \u015feye tutunmak iyidir.<\/p>\n

Belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde sar\u0131 metal iyi i\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcr<\/b><\/p>\n

Elbette jeopolitik tehditler daha \u00e7ok. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer ilerlemelerinden, Kuzey Kore\u2019nin askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn esnetilmesinden, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn daha \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc, \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl ve a\u015f\u0131ya diren\u00e7li mutasyonundan, ABD\u2019nin ara se\u00e7iminden, \u00e7evresel risklerden bahsetmedim. Kesin olan bir \u015fey var: Son zamanlarda jeopolitik gerilimler yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak sar\u0131 metal, belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde geli\u015fme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Ancak jeopolitik olaylar, \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019yi ve ekonomisini do\u011frudan tehdit etmiyorsa, k\u0131ymetli maden piyasalar\u0131nda genellikle k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli tepkileri tetikliyor. Bunun nedeni, t\u00fcm gerilimlerin eninde sonunda hafiflemesi ve t\u00fcm \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir t\u00fcr uzla\u015fma olmas\u0131. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde, rahat bir nefes al\u0131n\u0131r ve alt\u0131n da dahil olmak \u00fczere g\u00fcvenli limanlar\u0131n iyimser fiyatlar\u0131nda bir d\u00fczeltme yap\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00d6nceki y\u0131llarda oldu\u011fu gibi, 2022\u2019de de jeopolitik gerilimlerin piyasalar\u0131 etkilemesi muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131m uzman\u0131 olan Arkadiusz Siero\u0144\u2019a g\u00f6re …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12930,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-defi","category-nft"],"yoast_head":"\n2022 \u0130\u00e7in Yeni Jeopolitik Tehditler: Alt\u0131n Tehlikede Mi? - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/2022-icin-yeni-jeopolitik-tehditler-altin-tehlikede-mi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022 \u0130\u00e7in Yeni Jeopolitik Tehditler: Alt\u0131n Tehlikede Mi?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00d6nceki y\u0131llarda oldu\u011fu gibi, 2022\u2019de de jeopolitik gerilimlerin piyasalar\u0131 etkilemesi muhtemel. 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