Biden<\/a>‘\u0131n pop\u00fcler oyu kazanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %56 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. E\u011fer bu tahmin do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131karsa, her hisse $1 (USDC stabilcoini olarak) \u00f6deyecek, aksi takdirde hi\u00e7bir \u015fey \u00f6demeyecek.<\/p>\n\u00d6te yandan, Trump’\u0131n pop\u00fcler oyu kazanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sadece %36 olarak belirlenmi\u015f durumda. Bu soru \u00fczerine 36 milyon dolar bahis yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, bu da Polymarket’in hacim bak\u0131m\u0131ndan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc en b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
En b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar ise, elbette, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerini kimin kazanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerine olan ve burada toplamda 182 milyon dolar bahis yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. Burada Trump, %57 olas\u0131l\u0131kla favori olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, Biden’\u0131n kazanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %35 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Polymarket, d\u00fczenleyici bir anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda ABD kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor, bu nedenle t\u00fcccarlar\u0131n tahminlerini uzaktan yapt\u0131klar\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha geleneksel bir ABD se\u00e7im bahis sitesi olan PredictIt, bahisleri dolar olarak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmleyen ve yar\u0131 d\u00fczenleyici bir onay ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, Trump’a %52 ve Biden’a %47 olas\u0131l\u0131k veriyor. Ancak buradaki hacim, 15.7 milyon dolar ile nispeten k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Se\u00e7ici Kurul, 1787 Anayasa Konvansiyonu’nda tasarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Amac\u0131, n\u00fcfuslu ve daha az n\u00fcfuslu eyaletlerin etkisini dengelemek, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck eyaletlerin se\u00e7imde seslerinin duyulmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak ve birka\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck eyaletin sonucu domine etmesini \u00f6nlemektir. Pop\u00fcler oy ise, hi\u00e7bir se\u00e7ici a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahip olmayan, her aday i\u00e7in verilen oylar\u0131n oran\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Kurul, 538 se\u00e7iciden olu\u015fur ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kazanmak i\u00e7in 270 se\u00e7icinin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funa ihtiya\u00e7 vard\u0131r. Her eyalet, Kongre delegasyonundaki \u00fcyelerinin say\u0131s\u0131na e\u015fit say\u0131da se\u00e7iciye sahiptir: Temsilciler Meclisi \u00fcyesi ba\u015f\u0131na (Temsilciler Meclisi \u00fcye say\u0131s\u0131 eyaletin n\u00fcfusuna orant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r) art\u0131 iki senat\u00f6r.<\/p>\n
Bu sistemin ele\u015ftirmenleri, onu antidemokratik olarak nitelendirirken, savunucular\u0131, \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun potansiyel zorbal\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 az\u0131nl\u0131k haklar\u0131n\u0131 koruyan bir kale oldu\u011funu savunur. Bu kadar kesin olan bir \u015fey var: E\u011fer Polymarket bahis\u00e7ileri do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131karsa ve Trump, pop\u00fcler oyu kaybederek se\u00e7ici kurulda kazan\u0131rsa, “Benim Ba\u015fkan\u0131m De\u011fil” protestolar\u0131 yeniden moda olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Donald Trump, pop\u00fcler oyu kaybetmesine ra\u011fmen se\u00e7ici kurulda kazanan ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00fclkenin en y\u00fcksek makam\u0131na gelen be\u015f ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131ndan biri. E\u011fer tahmin pazarlar\u0131 do\u011fruysa, bu y\u0131l bu ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 tekrarlayacak. Polymarket’teki “pop\u00fcler oyu kim kazanacak?” kontrat\u0131nda, Joe Biden i\u00e7in “evet” hisseleri 56 centten i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, bu da piyasan\u0131n Biden‘\u0131n pop\u00fcler oyu kazanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %56 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":123301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1512],"tags":[9968,8427,15550],"class_list":["post-126907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haber","tag-abd-secim","tag-joe-biden","tag-joe-biden-abd-secim"],"yoast_head":"\n
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