{"id":11287,"date":"2022-02-03T01:00:06","date_gmt":"2022-02-02T22:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinmuhendisi.com\/?p=11287"},"modified":"2022-02-03T01:00:06","modified_gmt":"2022-02-02T22:00:06","slug":"2022nin-ortalarina-dikkat-diyen-analist-bomba-altin-tahmini-yapti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/2022nin-ortalarina-dikkat-diyen-analist-bomba-altin-tahmini-yapti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201c2022\u2019nin Ortalar\u0131na Dikkat\u201d Diyen Analist, Bomba Alt\u0131n Tahmini Yapt\u0131!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in yatay fiyat hareketine bak\u0131yor olabilir. DailyFX k\u0131demli stratejisti Christopher Vecchio\u2019ya g\u00f6re en b\u00fcy\u00fck test, enflasyonun istikrar kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 emdi\u011fi 2022\u2019nin ortalar\u0131nda geliyor. K\u0131demli stratejistin piyasa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerini ve alt\u0131n tahminlerini coinmuhendisi.com<\/strong> okuyucular\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlad\u0131k.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine \u00e7ok fazla inanc\u0131m yok\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Christopher Vecchio, ABD Hazine faizlerinde bir harekete i\u015faret ederek, 1.850 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir rallinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n\u0131n zaten t\u00fckeniyor olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine \u00e7ok fazla inanc\u0131m yok. Altta yatan temeller \u00f6nemli bir endi\u015fe olmaya devam ediyor. ABD Hazine faizlerinin hem nominal hem de reel olarak 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Tarihsel olarak konu\u015fursak, reel faizler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimindedir. Ve bu y\u0131l boyunca daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ile tan\u0131mlanan bir ortamda, reel faizler y\u00fckselmeye devam edecek.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Stratejist, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131 1.800 dolardan kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. \u201cAlt\u0131n\u0131n buradan daha y\u00fcksek bir yolu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorum\u201d diyen Christopher Vecchio, mali ve parasal canland\u0131rma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019de ve di\u011fer Bat\u0131l\u0131 ekonomilerde h\u0131zla s\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor ve \u015fu \u015fekilde izah ediyor:<\/p>\n

\u00d6rne\u011fin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, mali tarafta \u015fimdiden kemer s\u0131kma politikas\u0131na ba\u015flad\u0131. Ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu y\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7 ya da d\u00f6rt art\u0131r\u0131m ile ilerleyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Burada ABD\u2019de, Demokratik Kongre\u2019nin Build Back Better program\u0131 gibi yeni bir mali te\u015fvik plan\u0131 etraf\u0131nda fikir birli\u011fine varmas\u0131n\u0131n giderek daha olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Christopher Vecchio: Bu geli\u015fmeler uzun vadede alt\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131yor<\/b><\/p>\n

Daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir mali harcama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in, alt\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc olduk\u00e7a tarafs\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Stratejist, ara se\u00e7imlere yakla\u015f\u0131rken, ABD\u2019den herhangi bir b\u00fcy\u00fck mali te\u015fvik senaryosu beklemenin giderek zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor ve \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

E\u011fer Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler Meclisin, Senato\u2019nun kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc geri al\u0131rlarsa, 2010\u2019lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Beyaz Saray\u2019da bir Demokrat\u0131n ve Kongre\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin elindeyken sahip oldu\u011fumuz duruma geri d\u00f6neriz. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 2011\u2019de zirve yapt\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f alt\u0131 y\u0131l boyunca istikrarl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Bu ortam, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in k\u0131rk y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fcksek enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almay\u0131 ba\u015farmas\u0131 durumunda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ralliler s\u0131ras\u0131nda alt\u0131n satmaya te\u015fvik ediyor. K\u0131demli stratejist, Fed\u2019in Mart, Haziran, Eyl\u00fcl ve Aral\u0131k aylar\u0131nda d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na devam etmesiyle enflasyonun y\u0131l sonuna kadar dengelenece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. Stratejist, enflasyonun 2022\u2019nin sonunda %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na geri d\u00f6nece\u011fini bir senaryoyu da d\u0131\u015flam\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

A\u015f\u0131 oranlar\u0131 artmaya devam ettik\u00e7e ve daha \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc Covid t\u00fcrleri daha y\u00f6netilebilir t\u00fcrlerle de\u011fi\u015ftirilirken, t\u00fcketiciler harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 mallardan hizmetlere do\u011fru kayd\u0131racak. Ve bu harcama kaymas\u0131 meydana geldik\u00e7e, tedarik zinciri darbo\u011fazlar\u0131 hafifleyecek. 2022\u2019nin sonunda ABD\u2019de man\u015fet enflasyonun %4\u2019\u00fcn, hatta belki de %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi beni \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaz.<\/p>\n

Stratejistin bu makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k g\u00fcvenli liman aramamas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ko\u015fullar\u0131na sahip varl\u0131klar\u0131 tercih etmemesi nedeniyle, uzun vadede bir enflasyon riskinden korunma arac\u0131 olarak alt\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131yor. Christopher Vecchio, \u015fu yorumu yap\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n, ABD devlet borcunun y\u0131ldan y\u0131la artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in piyasalara trilyonlarca dolar pompalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda toparlanam\u0131yor. O zaman neden tam tersi bir ortamda, bu mali te\u015fvike sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, Fed\u2019in varl\u0131k sat\u0131n alma program\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve geri \u00e7ekti\u011fi bir ortamda bunu yapabilsin.<\/p>\n

Stratejistin alt\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019deki potansiyeline ili\u015fkin tahminleri<\/b><\/p>\n

Alt\u0131nla ilgili uzun vadeli tarafs\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ra\u011fmen Christopher Vecchio, ilk \u00e7eyrekte 1.870 dolar seviyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclme \u015fans\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n

Mart ay\u0131nda potansiyel 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla ilgili piyasa konu\u015fmas\u0131 yersiz. Piyasa bu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 beklentileri gev\u015fetti\u011finden, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesi i\u00e7in yer var. Bu y\u00fczden daha fazla sat\u0131\u015f ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce 1.860 dolar civar\u0131nda bir potansiyel zirve bekliyorum.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

\u201cPiyasalar, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk a\u015famalar\u0131nda gerginle\u015fiyor ve bu durum hisse senetleri i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc ama de\u011ferli metaller i\u00e7in iyi olabilir\u201d diyen stratejist, 2022\u2019nin d\u00f6nemlerine ili\u015fkin \u015fu beklentilerini payla\u015f\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in burada iyi bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Ama y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131na do\u011fru yol al\u0131rken, \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda, alt\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten de kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n birikti\u011fini g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme y\u00f6nelik riskler<\/b><\/p>\n

Christopher Vecchio\u2019nun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat riski, Fed\u2019in niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 (QT) \u00e7ok erken ba\u015flatmas\u0131 ve bir politika tuza\u011f\u0131na girmesi. \u00dc\u00e7 a\u015famal\u0131 bir s\u00fcreci, \u201c\u00d6nce QE\u2019yi azalt\u0131yoruz, sonra faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ge\u00e7iyoruz ve faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn son k\u0131sm\u0131nda niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz\u201d \u015feklinde ifade eden Christopher Vecchio, Fed\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc de \u00e7ok k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde yapmas\u0131n\u0131n, finansal piyasalarda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funun kan\u0131tlanabilece\u011fini belirtiyor:<\/p>\n

Potansiyel olarak i\u015fsizlikte ani art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz yerde zincirleme bir etkiniz olabilir. Ard\u0131ndan Fed, \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede hala nispeten y\u00fcksek enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerine sahip oldu\u011funuz ve i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131n tekrar y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir politika hatas\u0131na zorlan\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte o zaman stagflasyon korkular\u0131 i\u00e7eri s\u0131zmaya ba\u015flar.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Stratejist, bu riski olas\u0131 olmayan bir risk olarak nitelendiriyor ve Fed\u2019in 2022\u2019de herhangi bir noktada bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme ile ilerlemesinin \u015fok etkisi yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. K\u0131demli stratejistin alt\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik bir ba\u015fka potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk ise, Omicron kadar bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 ancak Omicron\u2019dan daha \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tlayan ve daha fazla tedarik zinciri sorununa neden olan yeni bir Covid t\u00fcr\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca Christopher Vecchio\u2019ya g\u00f6re, Rusya ile Ukrayna veya \u00c7in ile Tayvan aras\u0131ndaki artan jeopolitik gerilimler, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ba\u015fka bir ralliyi tetikleyebilir:<\/p>\n

Sosyal aktivite \u00fczerindeki yeni karantina k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131, insanlar\u0131 hizmetlerden \u00e7ok mallara daha fazla para harcamaya zorlayacakt\u0131r. K\u00fcresel gerilimlerin sadece bir kelime sava\u015f\u0131ndan daha fazlas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 ve karada botlar veya denizde gemiler g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz her t\u00fcrl\u00fc durum, alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi g\u00fcvenli limanlara olan talebi art\u0131rabilecek bir \u015fey.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in yatay fiyat hareketine bak\u0131yor olabilir. DailyFX k\u0131demli stratejisti Christopher Vecchio\u2019ya g\u00f6re en b\u00fcy\u00fck …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,8,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blockchain","category-defi","category-nft"],"yoast_head":"\n\u201c2022\u2019nin Ortalar\u0131na Dikkat\u201d Diyen Analist, Bomba Alt\u0131n Tahmini Yapt\u0131! - Coin M\u00fchendisi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/2022nin-ortalarina-dikkat-diyen-analist-bomba-altin-tahmini-yapti\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201c2022\u2019nin Ortalar\u0131na Dikkat\u201d Diyen Analist, Bomba Alt\u0131n Tahmini Yapt\u0131!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in yatay fiyat hareketine bak\u0131yor olabilir. 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